Yesterday, I calculated my xHR/FB rate equation to identify and discuss 11 hitters who have most underperformed their xHR/FB rate marks. Today, I’ll look at the overperformers.

Read the rest of this entry »

With about a month of the season in the books, it’s time to start calculating my various xMetrics. We’ll start by calculating hitter xHR/FB rate and comparing it to his actual mark. Today, I’ll look at hitters who have most underperformed their xHR/FB rates, suggesting significant upside over the rest of the season assuming they sustain such underlying skills. In an attempt to reduce really small sample size weirdness, only batters who have hit at least 20 fly balls will be listed and discussed.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, I shared some early Statcast statistic trends and compared them with historical marks going back to 2015. Unfortunately, I compared April 2019 numbers to full season marks from previous seasons, which wasn’t exactly apples to apples. I have corrected that error and spent some time collecting data only through the end of April for all previous seasons. So let’s try this again.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re still not a full month into the season, but a group of hitters are standing out atop the leaderboards ranging from superstar to fill-in. This week the “The 10” looks at a group that is reaching a level well beyond expectations thus far to see how they’re doing it and whether or not it can sustain at a fantasy-relevant level.

Yoan Moncada, White Sox | .314 AVG, 19 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 2 SB in 93 PA

Moncada’s first full season didn’t exactly live up to expectations as he hit just .235 with 17 HR and 12 SB while leading baseball with 217 strikeouts. A breakdown of his bountiful strikeout rate showed that he had the most called third strikes last year (85), just a stunning amount. Jeremy Frank of MLBRandomStats highlighted this fact as well as the fact that Moncada hasn’t struck out looking yet this year:

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I quantified a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux. He preached that the key to pitching is to throw a strike when the batter isn’t going to swing, and to throw a ball when the batter will [swing].

The introductory article to wPDI, the Weighted Plate Discipline Index for pitchers, can be found here.

Today, let’s turn the tables around and jump into the hitting equivalent. We can enumerate the offensive parallel of the quote – and evaluate what would be the “Maddux keys to hitting.” A Maddux hitter would swing at pitches when they are thrown in the zone and would lay off of pitches thrown out of the zone.

We will use the wPDI framework to help us quantify what we will call a “Maddux hitter.” For the hitting version of mPDI – the weights of the outcomes will be the exact inverses of the pitching indexes.

Read the rest of this entry »

About two and a half weeks in, we know it’s way too early to panic about slow-starters, yet many of you are itching to click that drop button. While I won’t be advising you to drop any of the players I discuss here, let’s evaluate their skills during their slow starts to see if there’s anything worrying to monitor over the next couple of weeks. I’ll stick with hitters that CBS ranked within its top 100 in the preseason.

Read the rest of this entry »

This is a tough part of the season for fantasy analysts. There just isn’t a ton to go off with the small samples making it difficult to come up with useful content. However, just saying “it’s a small sample, don’t worry; it’s a small sample, it doesn’t mean anything; it’s a small sample, just wait” doesn’t do anyone any good. We no longer play in an era of fantasy sports where you can wait for data to stabilize before making moves.

One of the quickest stats to “stabilize” is strikeout rate at 60 plate appearances. Now just because it stabilizes around that point, doesn’t mean it’s the new level for that player, it just means that what we’ve seen in those 60 PA has some legitimacy. Only five guys have reached 60 plate appearances through April 9th, but many are just a game or three away so I felt like we could check in on some these early strikeout rate improvements.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I identified and discussed seven hitters who have enjoyed Z-Contact% spikes compared to last year. Do such gains portend a breakout? Only time will tell. Today, I’ll dive into the players on the opposite end of the spectrum — those who have suffered the largest declines in Z-Contact% versus last season. Is this an early warning sign of a disappointing campaign?

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t need to convince you that improving your in-zone contact rate (Z-Contact%) is a very, very good thing. It could result in more balls in play, which leads to potentially more positive outcomes, whereas strikeouts rarely do. So let’s identify and discuss the fantasy relevant hitters who have enjoyed the biggest spikes in Z-Contact% marks so far over this tiny sample size.

Read the rest of this entry »

Need reinforcements for a team that is off to a rough start or beset by injuries? You’ve got something in common with the Yankees.

Entering their three-game series with the Tigers on Monday, the Yankees found themselves short-handed, adding Giancarlo Stanton (strained biceps) and Miguel Andujar (shoulder, labrum tear) to an already crowded injured list. They called up Clint Frazier and Tyler Wade to take their places on the roster. Much to the chagrin of Alex Chamberlain, Frazier — and not the recently-acquired Mike Tauchman — is expected to be the main playing time beneficiary during Stanton’s absence. Wade, on the other hand, will fall behind DJ LeMahieu on the third base depth chart.
Read the rest of this entry »