5/17/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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• @AlexFast8 – Co-Host

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**JOIN THE NFBC MEMORIAL DAY 2ND CHANCE LEAGUES**

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I took a look at the batting leaderboards since the start of the 2018 second half (July 19th). I didn’t set out to find anything in particular, I just wanted to see what’s been going on over the last three-plus months of games. I used a 300 PA cutoff which gave us 170 hitters. Here’s a few interesting nuggets I found on the AVG & HR boards:

BATTING AVERAGE

Christian Yelich | .357 in 457 PA – Yelich is unsurprisingly lapping the field with a 16-point advantage (he also has a 111-point OPS advantage over Mike Trout) over the next guy. I haven’t looked at every category yet, but I’m sure Yelich has substantial leads in several of them given his utterly insane finish that has carried over into this year.

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Yesterday, I shared and discussed the hitters who were leading in barrels per fly ball + line drive rate. Let’s now take a peek at the bottom dwellers. Of course, there are going to be your typical suspects, but there are some names that are surprising.

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With about a quarter of the season now in the books, let’s dive into some Statcast data. We know that power could ebb and flow each month and we have witnessed time and time again a hitter whose power is down early, but ends up going absolutely bonkers at some point and making up for the slow start. One of the best, most easily calculable metrics is barrels per fly ball + line drive rate. The problem with the barrels per batted ball event on the Statcast leaderboard is that it counts all batted ball types. It therefore ends up punishing ground ball hitters and doubly benefiting fly ball hitters. While that’s fine if you want to project isolated slugging, it’s a flawed metric if we only care about HR/FB rate. Barrels per plate appearance is even worse, as batters are now punished for walks and strikeouts, as those particular times to the plate failed to result in a barrel…well, duh! So Barrels/FB+LD it is.

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On Tuesday, I identified and discussed the hitters who have enjoyed the largest spikes in fly ball rate, firmly entrenching them as new or more senior members of the fly ball revolution. Today, let’s find out which hitters have departed the revolution as their fly ball rates have plummeted.

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For the second straight season, Matt Carpenter is off to a rough start and has fantasy managers questioning whether they should hang on or cut bait. At this time last year, he had an impossibly bad .165/.320/.320 line and when paired with a preseason shoulder injury, he seemed ripe for a cut. At least, my dumbass thought so. Despite some positive underlying metrics, I was concerned that his shoulder would prevent him from really breaking through and thus suggested benching or cutting him in 10- and 12-team formats.

Whoops.

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5/7/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS, INJURIES, RUMORS

• David Price to IL (3:45)
• Matt Olson back Tuesday? (6:15)
• Shohei Ohtani back Tuesday! (11:58)

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It’s becoming a fly ball happy world, as fly ball rate now sits at its highest mark since 2010. The revolution is showing no signs of slowing down. So let’s find out after the first month which hitters have increased their fly ball rates the most. I’ll list everyone who has boosted their marks by at least ten percentage points (40% to 50%).

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While we stress “small sample size” so often early in the season to the point that y’all probably tune out at this point, it could yield some fun stats, both weird and extreme. Let’s dive into some of the most interesting extremes after the first month.

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Last week, Paul Sporer had some highly encouraging things to say about Hunter Dozier in his piece on early batter breakouts. Paul noted that Dozier has radically changed his approach in the early going, and with another week’s worth of data to consider, at least one of his changes remains staggering to ponder. Last season, Dozier was more aggressive than the typical major league hitter, swinging at 50.1 percent of the pitches he saw. Just over a month into this season, he has become extremely selective, lowering his Swing% to less than three-fourths (37.0 percent) of what it was in 2018.

The improved production that we have seen from Dozier — the higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate, higher Avg and OBP and possibly also the increased power as well — can all be traced back in part to this one change in approach. It’s still early enough in the season that it is more than reasonable to ask if his improvement is for real. If we answer that question by looking at the peripherals that underlie Dozier’s improved fantasy stats, we’d have to say it does look real.
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