Departing the Fly Ball Revolution — May 2019

On Tuesday, I identified and discussed the hitters who have enjoyed the largest spikes in fly ball rate, firmly entrenching them as new or more senior members of the fly ball revolution. Today, let’s find out which hitters have departed the revolution as their fly ball rates have plummeted.

It’s quite a surprise to find Carlos Santana’s name atop the list of decliners. Amazingly, his fly ball rate has remained in a relatively narrow range his entire career, between 35.7% and 43.7%. So why he’s suddenly hitting grounders well over 50% of the time is a head-scratcher. It has boosted his BABIP and he has nearly doubled his HR/FB rate to offset the loss of flies, so the change in approach has been a positive so far. But I don’t know if it could last, as Santana is not the type of hitter you want hitting grounders so often and posting a sub-30% FB%.

The good news is that essentially all of Rafael Devers’s fly balls have turned into line drives. His BABIP has surged as a result, but because he also owns just a 3.7% HR/FB rate, he has homered just once. I’m very encouraged by his walk rate spike and strikeout rate improvement and given his age, the results breakout could occur at any time. I’d be holding and assume the power and flies will come around soon enough.

Joey Gallo’s fly ball rate was a ridiculous 54.2% in 2017. It declined a bit last year and has now tumbled again below 40%. Like Devers, the majority of the latest drop has been the result of more liners, which is a good thing. It’s pretty amazing that he already has 12 homers now given all the strikeouts and the lowest FB% of his career, but that’s because he’s sporting a HR/FB rate of 48% (possibly higher after yesterday’s homer).

Good for Chris Owings, Ender Inciarte, and Billy Hamilton for not giving into the temptation of joining the fly ball revolution. They’re better off hitting grounders and line drives and utilizing that speed, rather than making outs with harmless fly balls.

Given the Rays’ depth, I’m slightly surprised that the team hasn’t demoted Willy Adames, who still has one option remaining. He strikes out too much, doesn’t walk enough to offset it, hasn’t shown any power since debuting, and is hitting too many grounders. Oh, and he’s a negative defensively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in Triple-A by the end of the month barring a hot streak.

Since you can’t really count on steals from J.T. Realmuto anymore, you need him to maintain a 30% FB% to supply homers, but that mark has slipped below 30% for the first time. However, his grounder rate is similar to pre-2018 years, so it’s looking more like 2018 was the outlier batted ball distribution and this year he has simply turned some flies into liners, which ain’t a bad thing.

Jeff McNeil’s minor league record suggested some power potential, but that hasn’t been on display at all so far in the Majors and a decline in FB% won’t help matters any. I like his skill set, but he’s just been an empty batting average so far (though it can’t possibly stay this high).

Geez, Wilson Ramos was never much of a fly ball hitter, but this is low even for him! This is the first time his FB% has slipped below 20%. To add insult to injury, his HR/FB rate is wallowing in the mid-single digits, which is why he has hit just one homer. Given the pathetic catcher landscape, I would advise blindly buying low, but I’m always nervous about catcher because you just never know when they are going to collapse.