8/8/19

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Mitch Keller recalled (1:25)

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This is, and is not, a Mike Tauchman post. My relentlessly Tauchman-centric brand has been, in the words of beloved pal Sammy Reid, “hotter than the sun’s ass.” Tauchman has become the folk hero Yankees fans didn’t know they needed. I also have become insufferable to everyone within digital arm’s length of my Twitter account.

When I reviewed my bold predictions in July, I lamented Tauchman’s bad-luck strikeout rate (K%). By measure of “deserved” strikeout rate (I regressed the components of every hitter’s plate discipline against their strikeout rates to derive a “deserved” rate), Tauchman had been one of Major League Baseball’s unluckiest hitters.

Despite his recent torrid streak, Tauchman still emerges as one of 2019’s unluckiest hitters. That is why this is, in a sense, still a Tauchman post. But it’s also an Everyone Else post, in that I’m eager to unearth baseball’s luckiest and unluckiest hitters this year.

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I love this time of the baseball season, as seemingly every day, another hitter is given an opportunity for full-time at-bats. It makes life in mono leagues more interesting as the free agent pool is typically so sadly thin that any injection of new talent is quite welcome. This week we have two new regulars to discuss.

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In a series of tweets, it was shared yesterday that the Marlins are calling up prospects Isan Díaz and Lewis Brinson from Triple-A.

Sources indicate the Miami Marlins are calling up Isan Diaz from New Orleans.

— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) August 4, 2019

Sources indicate the Miami Marlins are calling up Lewis Brinson from New Orleans.

— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) August 4, 2019

For the team with the worst record in the National League, you would have to imagine these two are going to be locked into starting jobs the rest of the season. It would be silly if even a several week slump pushes them to the bench. So let’s assume the playing time will be there and focus on their potential fantasy contributions.

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Every season as we head towards the July 31 trade deadline, we have a list of players we expect to be traded. Many of them end up staying put, but Nicholas Castellanos was one that was actually sent packing like we thought. Castellanos heads to the North side of Chicago to man right field for the Cubs, pushing Jason Heyward to center field, and the combination of Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. to the bench. So will the switch in parks boost his offensive output? Let’s check the park factors.

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It’s hard to publish a deep league waiver wire post right before the trade deadline, because so much can change in mere hours. But here we go anyway. The theme here is new opportunities for hitters on bad teams.

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Every year we struggle with what to do in April as fantasy baseball players. We all try not to overreact while also making sure we don’t bypass potential breakouts who are out front with small samples. A big issue with April numbers is that there can be an anchoring effect that impacts how we view players several months later. April matters, it obviously counts, but it’s often given too much credence as a sort of “foundation” for player’s season. Not every big breakout starts in April and a good April doesn’t prevent a player from having poor season.

Let’s look at a group of the biggest risers since April and see what’s going on with them:

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Let’s finish what we started yesterday and look at some hitters. We’ll assume that, like us, you’re the brawny, rugged type who likes two-catcher leagues rather than the effete sort who prefers the monocatcher variety. If so, you’re always looking for a catcher who will be an improvement on a dead roster spot, and—unless your league somehow factors defense in—what with injuries, there aren’t enough of those to go around. Thus, our next two Bold Predictees. First, and more obviously, there’s Kevan Smith. He’s spent about four weeks this season dealing first with a possible concussion and then with a sprained metacarpal, but when he’s been healthy—for about 100 plate appearances–he’s done exactly what we, you, and everyone else expected, which is a .286 batting average, high on-base percentage, little power, no speed, and a slightly higher runs-plus-rbis per at-bat than is the norm for catchers. In other words, he’s worth something, and because he’s freshly off the DL and nobody carries more catchers than absolutely necessary, he’s freely available. Read the rest of this entry »

There are four more homestands in Coors Field this year. Players heading to Coors are always sought after, but the park is somehow playing even crazier than normal making those guys even more appealing. This past weekend saw several San Francisco Giants garner some attention with a four-game set in Coors including Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford (who paid off handsomely with 3 HR in the doubleheader on Monday), Kevin Pillar, Alex Dickerson, and Mike Yastrzemski.

Let’s look ahead at the next two Coors homestands and see if we can plan for potential pickups and avoid paying full price the weekend for those series.

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Yesterday, I identified and discussed 12 hitters whose xBABIP marks were significantly higher than their actual marks, suggesting potential dramatic upside for the rest of the season…assuming they maintained those underlying skills. Now let’s check in on the opposite group of hitters — those whose BABIPs have significantly exceeded their xBABIP marks, suggesting the potential for serious downside the rest of the way if they are unable to improve those underlying skills.

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