2019 Hitter Deserved K%
This is, and is not, a Mike Tauchman post. My relentlessly Tauchman-centric brand has been, in the words of beloved pal Sammy Reid, “hotter than the sun’s ass.” Tauchman has become the folk hero Yankees fans didn’t know they needed. I also have become insufferable to everyone within digital arm’s length of my Twitter account.
When I reviewed my bold predictions in July, I lamented Tauchman’s bad-luck strikeout rate (K%). By measure of “deserved” strikeout rate (I regressed the components of every hitter’s plate discipline against their strikeout rates to derive a “deserved” rate), Tauchman had been one of Major League Baseball’s unluckiest hitters.
Despite his recent torrid streak, Tauchman still emerges as one of 2019’s unluckiest hitters. That is why this is, in a sense, still a Tauchman post. But it’s also an Everyone Else post, in that I’m eager to unearth baseball’s luckiest and unluckiest hitters this year.
I outline the methodology used here in a January post in which I evaluated the 2018 season’s luckiest and unluckiest hitters by virtue of their actual deserved strikeout rates. However, it seemed as though certain hitters consistently over- or under-performed the “deserved” rate because the multiple regression model failed to adequately account for a hitter’s aggression/impatience or passivity/patience.
That is why, here, I will establish two deserved strikeout rates using all qualified hitter-seasons from 2014-18. One uses the typical plate discipline components (“xK% 1”):
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- Swing and miss in the zone: Zone% * Z-Swing% * (1 — Z-Contact%)
- Swing plus contact in the zone: Zone% * Z-Swing% * Z-Contact%
- Swing and miss outside the zone: (1 — Zone%) * O-Swing% * (1 — O-Contact%)
- Swing plus contact outside the zone: (1 — Zone%) * O-Swing% * O-Contact%
- No swing, in the zone: Zone% * (1 — Z-Swing%)
- No swing, outside the zone: (1 — Zone%) * (1 — O-Swing%)
… and one uses only swings and misses, non-swings on pitches in the zone, and interactions among all of them (“xK% 2”):
- Swing and miss in the zone: Zone% * Z-Swing% * (1 — Z-Contact%)
- Swing and miss outside the zone: (1 — Zone%) * O-Swing% * (1 — O-Contact%)
- No swing, in the zone: Zone% * (1 — Z-Swing%)
- In-zone swing-and-miss * out-of-zone swing-and-miss
- In-zone swing-and-miss * in-zone non-swing
- Out-of-zone swing-and-miss * in-zone non-swing
I hoped these interactions might capture the hitter passivity-aggression spectrum more effectively.
The table is long. Extremely long. Because 340-plus hitters have recorded at least 150 plate appearances in 2019 (the arbitrary threshold I imposed for this exercise). Forgive me in advance for its, uh, longness.
Some at-a-glance takeaways:
- Tauchman ranks 8th- and 16th-unluckiest. His deserved strikeout rates of 21.8% and 21.4% suggest he should stay afloat at his .378 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) crashes down to Earth. This is why I loved Tauchman to begin with: he not only flashed massive power but also boasted above-average contact skills — a special combination of skills, and one that 2019’s plate discipline outcomes have betrayed.
- Wil Myers has been bad this year, but maybe he hasn’t deserved to be this bad.
- Cavan Biggio’s extreme patience gets him into strikeout trouble, but perhaps he has some good fortune him awaiting him on the horizon.
On the flip side of things…
- David Fletcher is king of contact-oriented aggression, but maybe he doesn’t quite deserve a single-digit strikeout rate. Hardly anything to write home about, though.
- Cody Bellinger has made legitimate contact-based strides, but his gains may be outstripping his deserved outcomes by a substantial margin — something that could have implications on 2020 projections for him.
- Yadier Molina might have finally reached an age-related crossroads.
Lastly: don’t forget to click the table headers to sort!
2019 Hitter Deserved K%
| Name | K% | xK% 1 | xK% 2 | diff 1 | diff 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Moore | 34.2% | 25.7% | 25.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% |
| Ben Gamel | 30.3% | 22.1% | 20.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% |
| Steve Wilkerson | 32.0% | 24.5% | 24.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| Tom Murphy | 35.5% | 28.6% | 27.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% |
| Tyler White | 27.8% | 21.4% | 20.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% |
| Tyler Austin | 39.5% | 33.8% | 30.4% | 5.7% | 9.1% |
| Wil Myers | 35.0% | 29.4% | 30.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| Mike Tauchman | 27.3% | 21.8% | 21.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% |
| Grayson Greiner | 33.7% | 28.2% | 26.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% |
| Jake Bauers | 26.6% | 21.2% | 20.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% |
| Juan Lagares | 29.0% | 23.6% | 24.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% |
| Cavan Biggio | 27.8% | 22.4% | 18.6% | 5.4% | 9.2% |
| Greg Garcia | 23.6% | 18.2% | 15.4% | 5.4% | 8.2% |
| Chris Davis | 39.6% | 34.2% | 33.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% |
| Rougned Odor | 30.4% | 25.1% | 26.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| Garrett Hampson | 28.1% | 23.0% | 21.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% |
| Daniel Robertson | 25.2% | 20.1% | 19.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% |
| Jake Marisnick | 29.5% | 24.6% | 24.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| JaCoby Jones | 28.1% | 23.3% | 23.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| Curtis Granderson | 27.5% | 22.7% | 21.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% |
| Jeff Mathis | 34.7% | 29.9% | 33.6% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Matt Adams | 32.1% | 27.6% | 26.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% |
| Miguel Sano | 35.8% | 31.3% | 30.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% |
| Garrett Cooper | 26.4% | 21.9% | 22.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% |
| Austin Romine | 20.8% | 16.4% | 19.1% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Jeimer Candelario | 26.6% | 22.3% | 21.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% |
| Jose Peraza | 15.3% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Benintendi | 23.8% | 19.6% | 19.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% |
| Eric Thames | 32.0% | 27.8% | 25.6% | 4.2% | 6.4% |
| Harrison Bader | 28.1% | 23.9% | 23.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| Travis Shaw | 32.5% | 28.4% | 29.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% |
| Steven Duggar | 28.0% | 23.9% | 24.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| Richie Martin Jr. | 29.1% | 25.1% | 27.8% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Victor Robles | 24.1% | 20.1% | 20.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| Harold Castro | 23.8% | 19.9% | 22.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Matt Carpenter | 25.8% | 22.0% | 21.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% |
| Hernan Perez | 26.3% | 22.5% | 26.8% | 3.8% | -0.5% |
| Gordon Beckham | 30.5% | 26.8% | 29.9% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Justin Bour | 28.8% | 25.3% | 25.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Domingo Santana | 31.2% | 27.7% | 28.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| Curt Casali | 25.6% | 22.1% | 20.0% | 3.5% | 5.6% |
| Delino DeShields | 23.2% | 19.7% | 19.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 25.6% | 22.2% | 23.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| Colin Moran | 24.6% | 21.2% | 20.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% |
| Keon Broxton | 43.2% | 39.8% | 43.2% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Logan Forsythe | 26.3% | 23.0% | 20.0% | 3.3% | 6.3% |
| Welington Castillo | 28.0% | 24.8% | 25.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% |
| Francisco Mejia | 22.5% | 19.4% | 22.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| James McCann | 29.0% | 26.0% | 27.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 23.0% | 20.0% | 20.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| Daniel Murphy | 14.8% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Billy McKinney | 25.2% | 22.3% | 22.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Christian Walker | 27.9% | 25.0% | 23.2% | 2.9% | 4.7% |
| Mitch Haniger | 28.6% | 25.8% | 26.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| Tim Beckham | 31.1% | 28.3% | 29.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Trevor Story | 25.6% | 22.8% | 23.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Hunter Renfroe | 28.2% | 25.5% | 26.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 25.5% | 22.8% | 24.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Gregory Polanco | 29.3% | 26.6% | 23.9% | 2.7% | 5.4% |
| Tyler Flowers | 34.4% | 31.7% | 33.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Randal Grichuk | 27.2% | 24.6% | 23.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% |
| Eugenio Suarez | 27.5% | 24.9% | 24.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% |
| Francisco Lindor | 15.8% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| Danny Jansen | 21.5% | 19.1% | 18.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| Willy Adames | 27.2% | 24.8% | 25.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Brandon Belt | 20.7% | 18.3% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% |
| Ryan O’Hearn | 25.0% | 22.7% | 21.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 23.4% | 21.1% | 20.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% |
| Charlie Tilson | 24.2% | 21.9% | 23.9% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Billy Hamilton | 23.9% | 21.6% | 23.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| J.P. Crawford | 23.6% | 21.4% | 21.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| Anthony Santander | 16.9% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Nick Senzel | 22.6% | 20.5% | 20.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Leury Garcia | 23.3% | 21.2% | 22.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Mitch Garver | 26.3% | 24.3% | 21.5% | 2.0% | 4.8% |
| Brian McCann | 17.4% | 15.4% | 15.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| Tyler Naquin | 23.2% | 21.2% | 23.7% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| Austin Meadows | 25.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Joey Gallo | 38.4% | 36.5% | 35.1% | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| Joey Votto | 20.2% | 18.3% | 17.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% |
| Yordan Alvarez | 24.3% | 22.4% | 21.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% |
| Daniel Descalso | 28.1% | 26.3% | 25.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% |
| Austin Hedges | 32.8% | 31.0% | 32.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Danny Santana | 27.6% | 25.8% | 28.0% | 1.8% | -0.4% |
| J.T. Realmuto | 23.2% | 21.5% | 22.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Ian Kinsler | 19.1% | 17.4% | 18.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Yan Gomes | 22.1% | 20.4% | 21.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Chad Pinder | 21.5% | 19.8% | 20.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Jordan Luplow | 24.5% | 22.8% | 21.2% | 1.7% | 3.3% |
| Robinson Cano | 16.8% | 15.1% | 16.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 24.3% | 22.7% | 22.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| Brock Holt | 18.7% | 17.1% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% |
| Chris Iannetta | 32.5% | 30.9% | 31.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Martin Maldonado | 22.5% | 20.9% | 21.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Jose Abreu | 22.4% | 20.9% | 21.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Peter Alonso | 26.5% | 25.1% | 23.1% | 1.4% | 3.4% |
| Stephen Vogt | 24.7% | 23.3% | 23.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Brandon Nimmo | 29.8% | 28.4% | 27.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| Kyle Schwarber | 25.4% | 24.1% | 22.8% | 1.3% | 2.6% |
| Cheslor Cuthbert | 21.0% | 19.7% | 19.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Dee Gordon | 14.4% | 13.1% | 16.9% | 1.3% | -2.5% |
| Tim Anderson | 21.4% | 20.1% | 20.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Niko Goodrum | 29.1% | 27.8% | 27.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% |
| Mark Reynolds | 35.2% | 33.9% | 33.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Ian Desmond | 24.8% | 23.5% | 23.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Anthony Rendon | 13.8% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% |
| Brandon Lowe | 33.9% | 32.7% | 32.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Ronald Guzman | 28.6% | 27.4% | 28.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| A.J. Pollock | 20.5% | 19.3% | 18.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% |
| Austin Barnes | 22.7% | 21.6% | 21.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| Eduardo Nunez | 15.5% | 14.4% | 17.1% | 1.1% | -1.6% |
| Tucker Barnhart | 25.8% | 24.8% | 25.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Ender Inciarte | 17.9% | 16.9% | 19.7% | 1.0% | -1.8% |
| Jose Rondon | 24.2% | 23.2% | 24.7% | 1.0% | -0.5% |
| Rowdy Tellez | 29.0% | 28.0% | 29.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Trea Turner | 22.5% | 21.5% | 20.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 20.5% | 19.5% | 21.0% | 1.0% | -0.5% |
| Jose Iglesias | 13.4% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 0.9% | -3.3% |
| Clint Frazier | 28.2% | 27.3% | 25.5% | 0.9% | 2.7% |
| Ramon Laureano | 27.0% | 26.1% | 27.4% | 0.9% | -0.4% |
| Dexter Fowler | 24.6% | 23.7% | 22.2% | 0.9% | 2.4% |
| Jonathan Villar | 24.0% | 23.1% | 23.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 30.6% | 29.7% | 28.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% |
| Christian Vazquez | 19.0% | 18.2% | 19.8% | 0.8% | -0.8% |
| Nicholas Castellanos | 21.3% | 20.5% | 20.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| Omar Narvaez | 19.3% | 18.5% | 19.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Blackmon | 18.0% | 17.3% | 19.4% | 0.7% | -1.4% |
| Kevin Pillar | 15.0% | 14.3% | 16.4% | 0.7% | -1.4% |
| Robinson Chirinos | 29.7% | 29.1% | 27.4% | 0.6% | 2.3% |
| Roberto Perez | 28.2% | 27.6% | 26.3% | 0.6% | 1.9% |
| Kevin Newman | 11.6% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 0.6% | -1.4% |
| Martin Prado | 15.7% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jung Ho Kang | 32.4% | 31.8% | 33.7% | 0.6% | -1.3% |
| Brian Goodwin | 24.7% | 24.2% | 26.0% | 0.5% | -1.3% |
| Josh Reddick | 11.4% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 0.5% | -1.5% |
| Brandon Dixon | 30.5% | 30.0% | 30.9% | 0.5% | -0.4% |
| Jordy Mercer | 19.0% | 18.5% | 18.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Cordell | 29.2% | 28.7% | 31.0% | 0.5% | -1.8% |
| Carlos Correa | 23.3% | 22.8% | 24.1% | 0.5% | -0.8% |
| Nicky Lopez | 14.3% | 13.8% | 17.0% | 0.5% | -2.7% |
| Kyle Seager | 20.4% | 19.9% | 19.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| Brandon Drury | 26.1% | 25.7% | 26.6% | 0.4% | -0.5% |
| Joc Pederson | 21.5% | 21.1% | 21.7% | 0.4% | -0.2% |
| Pablo Sandoval | 22.8% | 22.4% | 23.1% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
| DJ LeMahieu | 13.5% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 0.3% | -0.4% |
| Christin Stewart | 23.9% | 23.6% | 24.2% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 24.4% | 24.1% | 21.9% | 0.3% | 2.5% |
| Hunter Dozier | 22.3% | 22.0% | 19.5% | 0.3% | 2.8% |
| Scott Kingery | 28.6% | 28.3% | 28.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Matt Olson | 24.1% | 23.8% | 25.0% | 0.3% | -0.9% |
| Luis Rengifo | 23.0% | 22.7% | 23.5% | 0.3% | -0.5% |
| Starlin Castro | 17.3% | 17.1% | 18.1% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| Justin Turner | 16.5% | 16.3% | 17.2% | 0.2% | -0.7% |
| Matt Chapman | 20.7% | 20.5% | 20.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 21.8% | 21.6% | 22.9% | 0.2% | -1.1% |
| Wilmer Flores | 10.7% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 0.2% | -1.8% |
| Renato Nunez | 24.6% | 24.4% | 24.8% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| David Dahl | 26.6% | 26.5% | 27.3% | 0.1% | -0.7% |
| Eric Sogard | 15.0% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 31.3% | 31.2% | 30.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| Giovanny Urshela | 15.9% | 15.9% | 18.7% | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Rhys Hoskins | 23.0% | 23.0% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| Yolmer Sanchez | 21.9% | 21.9% | 24.2% | 0.0% | -2.3% |
| Aaron Hicks | 28.2% | 28.3% | 26.1% | -0.1% | 2.1% |
| Juan Soto | 20.5% | 20.6% | 17.3% | -0.1% | 3.2% |
| Carson Kelly | 19.5% | 19.6% | 19.3% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| David Peralta | 21.2% | 21.3% | 22.0% | -0.1% | -0.8% |
| Leonys Martin | 29.5% | 29.6% | 29.7% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| Bryan Reynolds | 21.7% | 21.8% | 19.5% | -0.1% | 2.2% |
| Guillermo Heredia | 23.5% | 23.6% | 23.0% | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| Yonder Alonso | 21.4% | 21.5% | 20.0% | -0.1% | 1.4% |
| Cameron Maybin | 24.2% | 24.4% | 23.0% | -0.2% | 1.2% |
| Jesse Winker | 16.1% | 16.3% | 16.5% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 11.7% | 11.9% | 12.4% | -0.2% | -0.7% |
| Mallex Smith | 25.3% | 25.5% | 27.9% | -0.2% | -2.6% |
| Jose Martinez | 20.6% | 20.9% | 21.1% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| Mike Trout | 18.6% | 18.9% | 15.8% | -0.3% | 2.8% |
| Jason Heyward | 19.4% | 19.7% | 19.8% | -0.3% | -0.4% |
| Austin Riley | 35.3% | 35.6% | 33.5% | -0.3% | 1.8% |
| Rio Ruiz | 22.8% | 23.2% | 23.6% | -0.4% | -0.8% |
| Jorge Soler | 26.7% | 27.1% | 23.5% | -0.4% | 3.2% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 29.8% | 30.2% | 27.5% | -0.4% | 2.3% |
| Ryan Braun | 22.2% | 22.7% | 21.9% | -0.5% | 0.3% |
| Jorge Polanco | 15.5% | 16.0% | 15.7% | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| Miguel Cabrera | 19.8% | 20.3% | 21.3% | -0.5% | -1.5% |
| Max Kepler | 15.9% | 16.4% | 15.5% | -0.5% | 0.4% |
| Ryan McMahon | 27.8% | 28.4% | 27.1% | -0.6% | 0.7% |
| Adam Eaton | 15.6% | 16.2% | 16.3% | -0.6% | -0.7% |
| Chris Taylor | 27.2% | 27.8% | 28.0% | -0.6% | -0.8% |
| Tony Kemp | 14.9% | 15.5% | 17.7% | -0.6% | -2.8% |
| Evan Longoria | 20.8% | 21.5% | 23.5% | -0.7% | -2.7% |
| Jose Ramirez | 13.3% | 14.0% | 13.6% | -0.7% | -0.3% |
| Brian Dozier | 23.2% | 23.9% | 22.6% | -0.7% | 0.6% |
| Jarrod Dyson | 19.6% | 20.3% | 19.5% | -0.7% | 0.1% |
| Pedro Severino | 19.8% | 20.5% | 17.4% | -0.7% | 2.4% |
| Tony Wolters | 15.8% | 16.6% | 17.1% | -0.8% | -1.3% |
| Nomar Mazara | 22.4% | 23.2% | 24.4% | -0.8% | -2.0% |
| Whit Merrifield | 16.8% | 17.6% | 19.3% | -0.8% | -2.5% |
| Robbie Grossman | 16.7% | 17.5% | 15.4% | -0.8% | 1.3% |
| Dominic Smith | 22.4% | 23.2% | 23.3% | -0.8% | -0.9% |
| Josh Bell | 20.4% | 21.3% | 18.8% | -0.9% | 1.6% |
| Enrique Hernandez | 21.6% | 22.5% | 21.0% | -0.9% | 0.6% |
| Michael Conforto | 21.9% | 22.8% | 21.9% | -0.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Chavis | 32.8% | 33.7% | 33.3% | -0.9% | -0.5% |
| Aaron Judge | 30.6% | 31.5% | 29.1% | -0.9% | 1.5% |
| Todd Frazier | 22.7% | 23.6% | 22.6% | -0.9% | 0.1% |
| Ryon Healy | 21.4% | 22.4% | 22.5% | -1.0% | -1.1% |
| Paul DeJong | 20.3% | 21.3% | 22.3% | -1.0% | -2.0% |
| Nick Markakis | 12.7% | 13.7% | 13.8% | -1.0% | -1.1% |
| Joey Wendle | 18.5% | 19.5% | 20.5% | -1.0% | -2.0% |
| Mike Zunino | 33.0% | 34.0% | 33.8% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
| Mookie Betts | 14.8% | 15.8% | 13.1% | -1.0% | 1.7% |
| Gleyber Torres | 21.4% | 22.5% | 21.7% | -1.1% | -0.3% |
| Manny Machado | 19.9% | 21.0% | 19.7% | -1.1% | 0.2% |
| Michael Brantley | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.1% | -1.1% | -1.9% |
| Nick Ahmed | 17.6% | 18.7% | 18.9% | -1.1% | -1.3% |
| Nelson Cruz | 26.8% | 27.9% | 25.3% | -1.1% | 1.5% |
| Mark Canha | 20.3% | 21.5% | 21.3% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
| Hanser Alberto | 9.4% | 10.6% | 15.2% | -1.2% | -5.8% |
| Raimel Tapia | 23.0% | 24.2% | 26.0% | -1.2% | -3.0% |
| Ji-Man Choi | 20.5% | 21.8% | 20.6% | -1.3% | -0.1% |
| Kris Bryant | 21.3% | 22.6% | 20.8% | -1.3% | 0.5% |
| Amed Rosario | 20.4% | 21.7% | 21.5% | -1.3% | -1.1% |
| Brandon Crawford | 23.0% | 24.3% | 23.5% | -1.3% | -0.5% |
| Manuel Margot | 19.2% | 20.5% | 21.0% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
| John Hicks | 29.8% | 31.1% | 33.4% | -1.3% | -3.6% |
| Josh Donaldson | 24.5% | 25.8% | 23.9% | -1.3% | 0.6% |
| Jeff McNeil | 13.4% | 14.7% | 16.2% | -1.3% | -2.8% |
| Kolten Wong | 13.7% | 15.1% | 15.2% | -1.4% | -1.5% |
| Orlando Arcia | 20.8% | 22.2% | 23.7% | -1.4% | -2.9% |
| Corey Seager | 19.0% | 20.4% | 18.8% | -1.4% | 0.2% |
| Jason Castro | 27.9% | 29.3% | 30.4% | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| Ehire Adrianza | 15.6% | 17.0% | 17.6% | -1.4% | -2.0% |
| Lorenzo Cain | 16.9% | 18.4% | 18.4% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| Eloy Jimenez | 27.9% | 29.4% | 27.9% | -1.5% | 0.0% |
| Ketel Marte | 13.4% | 14.9% | 14.8% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| Max Muncy | 23.9% | 25.4% | 24.6% | -1.5% | -0.7% |
| Jean Segura | 11.4% | 12.9% | 14.4% | -1.5% | -3.0% |
| Freddy Galvis | 23.8% | 25.4% | 27.8% | -1.6% | -4.0% |
| Oscar Mercado | 17.9% | 19.5% | 18.4% | -1.6% | -0.5% |
| Melky Cabrera | 10.3% | 11.9% | 13.4% | -1.6% | -3.1% |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 23.1% | 24.7% | 26.7% | -1.6% | -3.6% |
| Jay Bruce | 24.3% | 25.9% | 24.7% | -1.6% | -0.4% |
| Tommy Pham | 18.7% | 20.3% | 18.4% | -1.6% | 0.3% |
| Adam Frazier | 12.1% | 13.7% | 15.1% | -1.6% | -3.0% |
| C.J. Cron | 19.7% | 21.3% | 22.6% | -1.6% | -2.9% |
| Alex Gordon | 16.7% | 18.3% | 18.2% | -1.6% | -1.5% |
| Yoan Moncada | 27.6% | 29.3% | 30.4% | -1.7% | -2.8% |
| J.D. Martinez | 20.6% | 22.3% | 19.9% | -1.7% | 0.7% |
| Gary Sanchez | 27.4% | 29.1% | 28.1% | -1.7% | -0.7% |
| Trey Mancini | 21.6% | 23.3% | 24.4% | -1.7% | -2.8% |
| Harold Ramirez | 19.9% | 21.7% | 21.8% | -1.8% | -1.9% |
| Joe Panik | 9.8% | 11.6% | 10.9% | -1.8% | -1.1% |
| Kole Calhoun | 23.8% | 25.6% | 23.9% | -1.8% | -0.1% |
| Bryce Harper | 26.4% | 28.2% | 24.2% | -1.8% | 2.2% |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 14.6% | 16.4% | 16.1% | -1.8% | -1.5% |
| Justin Smoak | 20.6% | 22.4% | 18.7% | -1.8% | 1.9% |
| Brett Gardner | 16.0% | 17.9% | 16.5% | -1.9% | -0.5% |
| Freddie Freeman | 18.2% | 20.1% | 17.8% | -1.9% | 0.4% |
| Buster Posey | 15.6% | 17.5% | 17.1% | -1.9% | -1.5% |
| Eddie Rosario | 13.4% | 15.3% | 17.0% | -1.9% | -3.6% |
| Gerardo Parra | 19.0% | 20.9% | 21.0% | -1.9% | -2.0% |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 21.3% | 23.3% | 22.8% | -2.0% | -1.5% |
| Yuli Gurriel | 10.7% | 12.7% | 15.5% | -2.0% | -4.8% |
| Jesus Aguilar | 21.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | -2.0% | -2.0% |
| Jason Kipnis | 15.7% | 17.7% | 17.8% | -2.0% | -2.1% |
| Mike Moustakas | 16.2% | 18.2% | 17.5% | -2.0% | -1.3% |
| Howie Kendrick | 13.8% | 15.8% | 16.7% | -2.0% | -2.9% |
| Yasiel Puig | 21.5% | 23.5% | 23.1% | -2.0% | -1.6% |
| Cesar Hernandez | 13.5% | 15.6% | 16.9% | -2.1% | -3.4% |
| Byron Buxton | 23.1% | 25.2% | 25.6% | -2.1% | -2.5% |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 23.8% | 25.9% | 25.6% | -2.1% | -1.8% |
| Jorge Alfaro | 34.4% | 36.6% | 35.3% | -2.2% | -0.9% |
| Ozzie Albies | 16.7% | 18.9% | 19.2% | -2.2% | -2.5% |
| Anthony Rizzo | 15.4% | 17.7% | 17.4% | -2.3% | -2.0% |
| David Bote | 26.7% | 29.0% | 28.5% | -2.3% | -1.8% |
| Eduardo Escobar | 19.7% | 22.0% | 22.5% | -2.3% | -2.8% |
| Yandy Diaz | 17.4% | 19.8% | 18.3% | -2.4% | -0.9% |
| Elias Diaz | 16.9% | 19.3% | 17.7% | -2.4% | -0.8% |
| Keston Hiura | 31.3% | 33.8% | 34.7% | -2.5% | -3.4% |
| Luke Voit | 27.4% | 30.0% | 26.8% | -2.6% | 0.6% |
| Didi Gregorius | 13.5% | 16.1% | 17.9% | -2.6% | -4.4% |
| Alex Verdugo | 13.0% | 15.6% | 16.0% | -2.6% | -3.0% |
| Dansby Swanson | 20.4% | 23.1% | 22.8% | -2.7% | -2.4% |
| Mitch Moreland | 23.0% | 25.8% | 25.3% | -2.8% | -2.3% |
| Javier Baez | 28.3% | 31.1% | 29.3% | -2.8% | -1.0% |
| Derek Dietrich | 24.5% | 27.3% | 27.4% | -2.8% | -2.9% |
| Yadier Molina | 12.3% | 15.2% | 19.4% | -2.9% | -7.1% |
| Khris Davis | 26.3% | 29.2% | 26.3% | -2.9% | 0.0% |
| Eric Hosmer | 19.7% | 22.7% | 21.4% | -3.0% | -1.7% |
| Neil Walker | 21.6% | 24.6% | 22.4% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| Brian Anderson | 20.6% | 23.7% | 24.1% | -3.1% | -3.5% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 18.2% | 21.3% | 20.8% | -3.1% | -2.6% |
| Nolan Arenado | 13.2% | 16.3% | 16.2% | -3.1% | -3.0% |
| Yasmani Grandal | 20.7% | 23.8% | 23.2% | -3.1% | -2.5% |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 17.3% | 20.5% | 18.2% | -3.2% | -0.9% |
| Ronny Rodriguez | 28.4% | 31.6% | 33.2% | -3.2% | -4.8% |
| Jurickson Profar | 15.0% | 18.2% | 18.1% | -3.2% | -3.1% |
| Jonathan Schoop | 24.9% | 28.2% | 26.8% | -3.3% | -1.9% |
| Marcus Semien | 14.0% | 17.3% | 15.8% | -3.3% | -1.8% |
| Elvis Andrus | 15.2% | 18.6% | 19.8% | -3.4% | -4.6% |
| Marcell Ozuna | 20.8% | 24.2% | 22.3% | -3.4% | -1.5% |
| Russell Martin | 22.3% | 25.7% | 25.1% | -3.4% | -2.8% |
| George Springer | 20.6% | 24.1% | 22.8% | -3.5% | -2.2% |
| Maikel Franco | 13.3% | 16.9% | 17.9% | -3.6% | -4.6% |
| Miguel Rojas | 12.4% | 16.0% | 17.5% | -3.6% | -5.1% |
| Kendrys Morales | 12.9% | 16.5% | 14.8% | -3.6% | -1.9% |
| Kurt Suzuki | 12.0% | 15.6% | 17.4% | -3.6% | -5.4% |
| Christian Yelich | 20.0% | 23.6% | 20.6% | -3.6% | -0.6% |
| Wilson Ramos | 13.2% | 16.9% | 17.5% | -3.7% | -4.3% |
| Addison Russell | 22.0% | 25.7% | 26.0% | -3.7% | -4.0% |
| Alex Bregman | 13.1% | 16.9% | 13.6% | -3.8% | -0.5% |
| Johan Camargo | 17.1% | 20.9% | 21.9% | -3.8% | -4.8% |
| Willson Contreras | 25.0% | 28.9% | 27.9% | -3.9% | -2.9% |
| Rafael Devers | 15.7% | 19.6% | 21.5% | -3.9% | -5.8% |
| Adam Jones | 17.9% | 21.9% | 22.2% | -4.0% | -4.3% |
| Albert Pujols | 12.9% | 16.9% | 17.9% | -4.0% | -5.0% |
| Albert Almora Jr. | 16.7% | 20.7% | 21.4% | -4.0% | -4.7% |
| Jose Altuve | 14.8% | 18.9% | 19.5% | -4.1% | -4.7% |
| David Freese | 23.3% | 27.5% | 29.0% | -4.2% | -5.7% |
| Luis Arraez | 7.5% | 11.7% | 11.6% | -4.2% | -4.1% |
| Andrew McCutchen | 21.0% | 25.3% | 24.7% | -4.3% | -3.7% |
| Andrelton Simmons | 9.2% | 13.6% | 13.8% | -4.4% | -4.6% |
| Stephen Piscotty | 21.7% | 26.1% | 26.9% | -4.4% | -5.2% |
| Josh Phegley | 16.2% | 20.6% | 21.8% | -4.4% | -5.6% |
| J.D. Davis | 19.9% | 24.4% | 25.6% | -4.5% | -5.7% |
| Adalberto Mondesi | 28.1% | 32.6% | 31.3% | -4.5% | -3.2% |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 25.8% | 30.3% | 32.1% | -4.5% | -6.3% |
| Carlos Santana | 14.8% | 19.3% | 16.5% | -4.5% | -1.7% |
| Starling Marte | 16.2% | 20.8% | 21.1% | -4.6% | -4.9% |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 24.0% | 28.6% | 28.9% | -4.6% | -4.9% |
| Hunter Pence | 20.9% | 25.6% | 25.0% | -4.7% | -4.1% |
| Corey Dickerson | 17.5% | 22.2% | 23.4% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| Matt Beaty | 13.4% | 18.3% | 19.1% | -4.9% | -5.7% |
| Tommy La Stella | 8.7% | 13.6% | 14.4% | -4.9% | -5.7% |
| Franmil Reyes | 27.0% | 32.1% | 30.2% | -5.1% | -3.2% |
| Dwight Smith Jr. | 19.9% | 25.0% | 24.5% | -5.1% | -4.6% |
| Tim Locastro | 14.2% | 19.3% | 20.9% | -5.1% | -6.7% |
| Cody Bellinger | 16.2% | 21.5% | 20.1% | -5.3% | -3.9% |
| Avisail Garcia | 23.4% | 28.7% | 26.1% | -5.3% | -2.7% |
| David Fletcher | 9.3% | 15.7% | 13.5% | -6.4% | -4.2% |
Wow, Rougned Odor and Wil Myers owners desperately needed this article–thank you for your service!!
If I remember correctly, your earlier version of this xK% formula included pitches / plate appearances to account for a hitter’s aggression. Care to share why you changed approaches?
No big reason other than I wanted to use a uniform source of metrics (FG Plate Discipline). This is not necessarily the most optimal way to derive an xK%, but it is maybe the cleanest.
Thanks!
When we talk about expected K% for pitchers, one of the theories for underperformers is that they have good fastballs and get get to two strikes easily enough, but lack a proper out pitch and are unable to get the K when batters start swinging defensively.
Could the flipside be true? That K% underperforming batters are particularly bad at handling the bendy stuff, and a disproportionate share of their swings and misses are in 2-strike counts?
Probably! Love the idea of that. Gonna put it on my to-do list to look into it.
Javi Lopez and Ron Gant would like to call from the 1990s and tell you that you might be onto something here. The Braves in their pitching era seemed to stockpile hitters like this, who mainly hit mistakes but were definitely strike-out-able even to my young eyes. I blame a lot of their playoff underperformance on the mediocre hitter approaches versus quality pitching. (And it’s easy to have a bad approach when you don’t like hitting junk.)
Also… If you can’t hit the 0-2 pitch then maybe don’t take a strike?! Hunt that 0-0 fastball like Chris Taylor and half the modern Braves.
ETA-Lopez loved junk, as long as you hung it around the letters. There might have been no greater hitter of that specific pitch than Javier Lopez.