Yesterday, I analyzed the hitter hit tool grades and their correlations with various hitter skill rates and results. Now let’s take a look at the leaders in the Hit – Present (HP) grade. Below are the top 12 in HP.
For the last week and a half, I have looked at prospect scouting power grades and stats. Today, we move along to prospect scouting hit tool grades. While power grades are pretty clearly meant to forecast a prospect’s Major League ISO and/or HR/FB rates, it’s not entirely obvious to me what a Hit grade is meant to tell us.
Is it indicative of underlying skills relating to hitting ability, such as walk/strikeout rates, along with BABIP, or is it more of the ultimate result of those skills, such as batting average and/or on base percentage? From perusing through Kiley McDaniel’s old articles back in 2014 explaining the scouting grades, it seems like OBP is the intent, but I’m not 100% sure. Either way, let’s dive into the correlations between the present and future hit grades with the various underlying hitting talent skills and results.
Today I finish our look at the hitter power grade leaderboards, ending with raw power in the future (RPF). Let’s identify and discuss the 26 hitters with an RPF grade of at least 70. As usual, I will only discuss those missing from previous leaderboards.
I’ve spent the last few articles releasing new projections. Today is no different and piggybacks off Monday’s article on single-season based pitcher projections or the GM’s. Today, it’s the hitters’ turn.
While the inspiration for these projections started with Giolito, I found I wanted the same dataset available for hitters. I took the players’ 2019 stats and regressed them to the league’s average rates and added in an aging factor. Finally, I prorated everyone to 600 PA.
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Today I continue the Prospect Scouting & Stats series, sticking with hitter power, but moving to raw power grades. We’ll start with raw power in the present (RPP) and then tomorrow will look at raw power in the future. Let’s discuss the 17 hitters that earned an RPP grade of at least 70. As a reminder, the table is sorted by RPP and then FV.
Yesterday, I listed and discussed the 20 prospects who earned a Game Power – Present (GPP) grade of at least 50. Today, I shift the future and will list and discuss 19 prospects who earned a Game Power – Future (GPF) grade of at least 60 and earned an FV of at least 50. Since the number of 60+ GPF players was 39, I wanted to narrow down the least to make it a similar size as the GPP list.
This week I continue my series on prospect scouting and stats. Today, let’s look at present hitter game power grades. While my High bucket encompassed present game power grades of at least 40, that was nearly a quarter of THE BOARD. So let’s only discuss the top of the top in the power department.
With the season delayed, I’ve had time to dive into some shelved projects including creating some unique projections. Today, I’m going to introduce my StatCast hitter projections.
I created the projections with inspiration from “The Model Thinker” by Scott Page.* The author states, “do not put too much faith in one model”. To further explain this stance, he states:
“The lesson should be clear: if we can construct multiple diverse, accurate models, then we can make very acurate predictions and valuations and choose good actions.
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Keep in mind, these second and third models need not be better than the first model. They could be worse. If they are a little less accurate, but categorically (in the literal sense) different, they should be added to the mix. “
As we continue to maintain hope that there will be a baseball season this year, last week I decided to have a bit of fun and build a $9 pitching staff using NFBC average auction values calculated from March 15. While that was a joy, commenter runningfrog demanded that I share what a $251 offense would look like. If I were to save all those auction dollars by buying such cheap pitching, how incredible might my offense look?! I decided to find out.
