Prospect Scouting & Stats — Hitter Game Power – Present

This week I continue my series on prospect scouting and stats. Today, let’s look at present hitter game power grades. While my High bucket encompassed present game power grades of at least 40, that was nearly a quarter of THE BOARD. So let’s only discuss the top of the top in the power department.

Here are the 20 hitters who scored at least a 50 in Game Power – Present (GPP), representing about the top 5% of prospects on THE BOARD. I sorted the list by GPP and then by FV (Future Value).

Congratulations Andrew Vaughn for earning the only 65 GPP grade! Vaughn’s power grade hasn’t yet translated into actual real game power, as his HR/FB rate just missed double digits and his ISO sat well below .200. However, his skills are intriguing. He swings and misses infrequently and kept strikeout rates below 20%, while walking at double digit rates. He was also able to push his fly ball rate above 40% at A+. Since his performance was just mediocre during his first taste of professional action, he might be a good target in keeper leagues. Or, if he’s available in your minor league draft, perhaps he falls a little further than his overall prospect ranking and power grade suggests he should.

Gavin Lux blew through the minors this year, but couldn’t keep the momentum going during his cup of coffee with the Dodgers. If we do have a season this year, he should earn ample playing time, but on a stacked offense with options, he can’t afford any sort of slump. That said, with a 70 FV, he’s by far the best overall prospect on this list, so the disappointing debut could give you an opportunity to buy at a discount versus his pre-debut cost.

Nolan Jones is one of just three in the 55 GPP tier, but although he has shown pretty good power at times, it hasn’t quite been elite yet. He has a fascinating skill set, as he has walked a ton (walk marks of at least 14.7% at every minor league stop!), but his strikeout rate has risen in every stint since A-. That’s concerning, however, he has posted low SwStk% marks, which don’t match with the mid-to-high 20% strikeout rate. What I would guess given those insane walk rates is that he has been extremely passive and has struck out a lot on called strikes. That seems more fixable than difficulties making contact.

After his loud, and surprising, debut, I think Kyle Lewis is one of the most interesting players to follow this season. His range of outcomes is huge. Would he flame out and find himself back in the minors after a month or does he go on to a 35+ homer pace over a full season?

At 28 years old, Ryan McBroom is too old for most of us to think of as a prospect. But a breakout at AAA while still in the Yankees organization in 2019 put him on the radar. Before that, he wasn’t someone to monitor, so this performance spike was either a fluke or him finally putting things together. Since he plays on a Royals team that always seems to need offense and only really has Ryan O’Hearn to compete with for first base time, he’s a solid speculation for peanuts in deep leagues.

We all know Jo Adell’s name and he earns the second highest FV grade on this list as the fourth best prospect in baseball. While everyone was excited for Adell to come up after a couple of months, I’m concerned about his weak AAA performance. It was only 132 plate appearances, but he gave no indication he was ready to perform at the level, let alone succeed with the Angels after just a couple more months. He hit with almost no power (0 homers, .091 ISO), struck out over 30% of the time, and posted a high 19% SwStk%. Temper your enthusiasm in the short-term.

You know my feelings on Luis Robert, but at least he has the promise of lots of steals to buoy his fantasy value, while Adell does not.

Hmmm, a catcher prospect in San Francisco? Not only does Joey Bart have to wait for Buster Posey to move full-time to first base, but he then has to contend with a pitcher friendly (though less so now than it had been) home park. He has shown good power though and has hit enough fly balls to make that power matter. He’s also graded as an elite fielder, so he should stick at catcher, making it easier for him to earn value.

Gosh, when will Brendan Rodgers be given a full-time shot? A shoulder injury limited him in 2019, but I’d like to see the Rockies give him every day at-bats and just leave him there.

Trevor Larnach hasn’t shown a whole lot of power, but his HR/FB rate did more than double to just above 20% at AA. However, his strikeout rate surged, so you wonder if he’ll be able to hit homers and keep his strikeout rate in check or have to choose one or the other.

The best thing going for Lewin Diaz for his future home run potential is his extreme fly ball rate. It won’t help his BABIP, but will certainly boost his home run total. He has also managed to maintain pretty good strikeout rates, though it looks like it’s due more to aggressiveness, rather than excellent contact ability.

Alex Jackson is the list’s second catcher and his HR/FB rate literally quadrupled from 2018. Before 2019, he was posting marks in the high single digits up to the mid-teens or so. Then all of a sudden, he’s a 30.8% guy. What?! It will be interesting to see how much of those gains he holds. Either way, he strikes out a ton, and has only posted a double digit walk rate at one stop throughout his minor league career. So he’s almost looking like the next Mike Zunino, but without the strong defense.

C’mon Rockies, free Sam Hilliard! I’m dying to see what he could do over a full season.

Third base is not a good position to be a prospect at in Boston, but that’s the situation Bobby Dalbec finds himself in. However, he did get a bunch of games at first and that’s going to be a much easier spot to make his debut at. The most important question here is whether his improved strikeout rate in 2019 will stick, as he will be a dud if those 30%+ rates he posted at three stops between 2017 and 2018 return.

The rest of the list (Jaylin Davis, Brent Rooker, Brian O’Grady, Chris Gittens, Jason Vosler, Chavez Young) are low FV hitters, most older than you want to see, who have posted some impressive HR/FB rates (especially Davis!). Perhaps one or two get a starting job, but have a short leash, or become bench bats.