Archive for Hitters

Building a 2021 $251 NFBC Offense

Last week I decided to have a bit of fun by building various starting hitter rosters and pitching staffs based on NFBC average auction values (AAVs). One of those exercises was building a $9 pitching staff. It’s something I always wanted to try in my local 12-team mixed league, but have never really come close to executing on. It’s very difficult to do because you’ll likely end up overpaying for your offense just to spend that $251, since the top players’ prices typically get pushed higher than the value they are projected to earn. Sure, your $9 pitching staff is likely to be projected to earn more than $9, but overall, you’re not going to leave the auction with a roster forecasted to earn anywhere near the profit you could if just playing it straight as a value-based auctioner.

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Thrifting with Prospects

Last week I did a podcast where I went thrift shopping with The BAT X to find some bargain players with strong projections, but this isn’t that. Maybe I could’ve come up with a different name to avoid the potential confusion, though this intro should suffice. What we are doing here today is checking out some prospects who have seen their prices plummet.

Oftentimes prospects are super hyped before they even step foot on a major league field as we can dream on them and wishcast them to be the next huge breakout from day 1. That love is fleeting, though, and when a prospect struggles upon arrival the fantasy community has been known to turn their back on them swiftly and severely. It’s on to the next one for so many which creates a buying opportunity if you still believe and you usually should as these prospects are rarely given a real sample of work before sinking down draft boards.

All five of these one-time mega prospects are going pick 250 or later and have fewer than 500 MLB plate appearances under their belt. They might not hold quite as much hype as they did at their peak while prospects, but there is still a lot of upside in all five bats.

Gavin Lux – 2B – LAD | 2021 ADP: 251 | Last Top 100 Rank: #2 (2020)

Lux has just 151 PA over the last two seasons, posting just a 76 wRC+ with 5 HR and 3 SB in that time. His ADP has dropped nearly 100 picks from last year due in part to the lack of instant success and the fact that he doesn’t have a clear hold on playing time heading into 2021. The continued presence of Chris Taylor and re-signing of Justin Turner leave Lux on the bench hoping for a super utility sort of role, though manager Dave Roberts brightened the outlook in early March with comments about his playing time:

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The 2021 NFBC Unauctioned — Building an Offense

On Monday, I built a $14 offense using only $1 players from the NFBC average auction values starting Feb 1. My player pool to choose from for that exercise was 59 players. But what about those that weren’t purchased at all? Surely they could have been had for a buck, too! That group is now my pool to choose from for this thrilling offense. As a reminder, there were seven auctions run since Feb 1, so this 14-player offense will be solely composed of hitters who failed to be bought in any of them.

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Peripheral Prospects of 2019, but for 2021

In 2019, Brad Johnson and I published a weekly series in which we, each on a semiweekly basis, identified three or four or five players in the Minor Leagues who (1) had not appeared on previous top-prospect lists and (2) appeared to us to be capable of producing admirably, perhaps significantly, at the big-league level at some point for fantasy purposes.

Because of an actual force majeure (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic), Peripheral Prospects was rendered temporarily null as the Minor League Baseball season was cancelled. Alas, we published nothing about peripheral prospects. But that does not mean peripheral prospects did not thrive! Peripheral prospects indeed thrived.

I figured it would behoove me to not only review my favorite peripheral prospects from the end of 2019 but also highlight my favorite (existing) peripheral prospects heading into 2021, before a whole new batch of peripheral prospects is anointed. Yesterday, I revisited my 10 favorites from 2019; today, I’ll highlight another 10 eight whose progress I’m eager to monitor in 2021.

Presented in chronological order (and not by favoritism):

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 898 – Thrift Shopping with The BAT X

3/1/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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THRIFTING OPTIONS

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Peripheral Prospects of 2019, but in 2020

In 2019, Brad Johnson and I published a weekly series in which we, each on a semiweekly basis, identified three or four or five players in the Minor Leagues who (1) had not appeared on previous top-prospect lists and (2) appeared to us to be capable of producing admirably, perhaps significantly, at the big-league level at some point for fantasy purposes.

Because of an actual force majeure (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic), Peripheral Prospects was rendered temporarily null as the Minor League Baseball season was cancelled. Alas, we published nothing about peripheral prospects. But that does not mean peripheral prospects did not thrive! Peripheral prospects indeed thrived.

I figured it would behoove me to not only review my favorite peripheral prospects from the end of 2019 but also highlight my favorite (existing) peripheral prospects heading into 2021, before a whole new batch of peripheral prospects is anointed. Here, I’ll revisit my 10 favorites from 2019; next time, I’ll highlight another 10 whose progress I’m eager to monitor in 2021.

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Building a 2021 $14 NFBC Offense

Last year, I debuted a series of posts using NFBC average auction values (AAV). It was a jolly good time, so I’m going to do it again this season. Once again, I’ll start by building a $14 offense. That’s right, 14 hitters, all just a buck. Isn’t that exciting?! I can only imagine the thrills that will be had choosing between players most fantasy owners have no desire to roster. But think of how amazing you $246 pitching staff would be!

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2021 Forecast — Potential HR/FB Rate Decliners

Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to identify and discuss the hitters whose actual HR/FB rates most underperformed. Today, let’s flip to the other end of the spectrum — those hitters whose actual HR/FB rates significantly exceeded their xHR/FB rates.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Catcher & Utility-Only Episode w/ Ryan Bloomfield

The Catcher & Utility-Only Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ryan Bloomfield

Strategy Section

  • Catchers
    • How to account for Positional Scarcity with Catchers
    • Differences between 1-Catcher Leagues and 2-Catcher Leagues
    • Streaming Catchers
    • Is J.T. Realmuto worth his current draft price?
  • Utility-Only Players
    • Are Utility-Only players undervalued in drafts?
    • “Clogging the Utility Slot”
    • Utility-Only players to gain positional eligibility

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2021 Forecast — Potential HR/FB Rate Surgers

Finally, it’s time for the main event! After weeks discussing the history and research, correlations, the xHR/FB v4.0 equation itself, and various xHR/FB rate components, we now set our sights toward 2021. Today, I will identify and discuss a handful of fantasy relevant names that underperformed their xHR/FB rates most significantly. Remember that this doesn’t automatically mean we should be projecting a higher HR/FB rate this season. But perhaps rather than take the hitter’s actual HR/FB rate at face value, we should substitute our xHR/FB rate mark when reviewing his historical marks and making a 2021 projection.

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