Preseason article review season continues! Today, let’s look back on a 2025 preview post where I identified potential HR/FB rate surgers and decliners. While I used to use my own xHR/FB rate equation when I projected a player’s HR/FB rate for the upcoming season, I decided to simplify things for this exercise. Instead, I used a metric I came up with called Barrels/(FB+LD) to help me come up with a list of names on both ends of the spectrum. So with the background out of the way, let’s review how these hitters ended up performing.

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During the preseason, us Rotographers focused on a position and shared tiers and rankings, updated weekly through the beginning of the season. I was tasked with first basemen, ranking 40 names and publishing the last update on March 24. Let’s now review those preseason rankings and where those players actually ended up ranking, along with their end of season dollar value earned.

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During the All-Star break, I polled you fine readers about hitters and your expectations in the second half. Specifically, the poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into. Let’s now review what happened.

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Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

With the regular season over, it’s time to find out how hitters performed who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits, they continue to underperform their next season’s projections. Besides collecting the names myself, I’ve asked for some help (article) for this past season’s list.

First, here is a look at how 2024 hitters performed compared to their Steamer projections.

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Often times, a lesser known hitter makes a name for himself during the postseason over small sample heroics and is then subsequently hyped to oblivion the following season. As you might guess, these hitters sometimes end up overvalued and disappoint their new owners. Remember Randy Arozarena back in 2020?! In 86 PAs, he posted an absurd .515 wOBA, driven by a 52.6% HR/FB rate (not a typo) and .455 ISO, resulting in 10 home runs. He certainly did enjoy a very solid fantasy season in 2021, going exactly 20/20, but was that even enough to breakeven for his owners? I guess that depended on your leaguemates, but I would imagine there were many leagues where his cost became comical.

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Syndication: The Enquirer

Before the fantasy baseball season finishes and all the managers disappear for a few months, it’s time to collect some information. Every season, I report on the batters who played through a known injury (2025 Edition). I have collected a few players throughout the season, but I am asking if anyone knows of any more hitters with a link to the source. No gut feels here. Once I get the complete list, I’ll create the full report.

Thanks for your time.

Aside from rooting for my own teams to finish in a prize spot at the end of season, I also find myself doing a different kind of rooting. That is, I love to see players continue their offensive surges and crashes that could potentially lead to overvaluation or undervaluation in next year’s drafts and auctions. If a hitter has enjoyed a surprising surge, let that continue to ensure my leaguemates will pay through the nose for him! Likewise, if a hitter has suffered a surprising crash, the hope is there’s no turnaround before the season ends as I love to scoop up players coming off down years, as they are typically undervalued.

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Are you fighting for a prize finish and have a hole or two on offense you’re dying to plug in the final week? These seven hitters have recently earned regular playing time and could be worth speculating on, particularly in deep leagues.

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Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

• Christian Moore started five straight at second base.

• Denzer Guzman with five straight starts at shortstop.

• Sebastián Rivero (.491 OPS) has taken over the catcher duties.

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Yesterday, in an attempt to benefit from every possible advantage as the regular seasons comes to a close, I reviewed a slew of hitters whose teams will be playing in the top home run parks in baseball this week. Let’s now look toward next week so you have some time to plan your roster. Park factors are this year only.

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