2025 Preview: Potential Batter HR/FB Rate Surgers & Decliners

We learned last year that Barrel% is still the most highly correlated Statcast metric with batter HR/FB rate, even more so than the newest metrics such as Blast Per Bat Contact and Fast Swing Rate. Of course, Barrel% does end up underrating extreme ground ball hitters and overrating extreme fly ball hitters, but because these hitters live in the extremes, they are the rare exceptions. To account for the fact that Barrel% is prone to being skewed by a hitter’s batted ball type distribution, let’s instead use a slightly better metric — Barrels per FB + LD percentage, or Barrels/(FB+LD).

With this new metric in hand, let’s review the hitters whose Barrels/FB+LD% (I’m going to call this version Barrel% in the rest of the article) suggest either a significantly higher HR/FB rate (who I’ll dub the potential surgers) or a significantly lower HR/FB rate (who I’ll dub the potential decliners). For context, I filtered for hitters with at least 300 PAs and the average HR/FB rate was 11.6% (high of 32.2%), with an average Barrel% of 14.1% (high of 38.7%).

We’ll begin with the potential surgers, sorted in order of the difference between actual HR/FB rate and my quick xHR/FB rate equation I just created for Barrels/(FB+LD).

Potential HR/FB Surgers
Name Barrels/FB+LD HR/FB
Oneil Cruz 30.0% 17.1%
Eloy Jiménez 17.9% 8.2%
Alejandro Kirk 12.3% 5.1%
Bobby Witt Jr. 22.7% 13.4%
Gabriel Moreno 13.2% 6.1%
Nick Gonzales 13.8% 6.9%
Giancarlo Stanton 33.7% 22.3%
Austin Riley 23.2% 14.3%
LaMonte Wade Jr. 15.8% 8.6%

Oneil Cruz missed nearly the entire 2023 season after fracturing his leg, but enjoyed a respectable offensive season during his first full year in 2024. However, with a 17.1% HR/FB rate and .190 ISO, perhaps the power output was a bit disappointing. The good news is that his Statcast metrics were incredible and suggest significant upside from here. Obviously, he needs to watch his strikeout rate, which sits above 30%, so it’s anyone’s guess whether he could maintain his current power if he does indeed reduce his strikeout rate. In addition, he doesn’t hit a rate of fly balls you would expect from a big power hitter, so he could certainly afford to raise that FB%, which would increase his home run upside even further.

My gosh, after an embarrassing 8.2% HR/FB rate, I would have hoped to find Eloy Jiménez’s name on this list! Nothing in his underlying metrics explain what has happened here. He has simply completely fallen apart offensively. Part of the issues stem from his extreme GB%, which is illogical from a guy who clearly possesses a lot of power. Signed to a minor league contract by the Rays, it’s hard to believe his starting career is over at age 28. Perhaps he’ll make for a profitable cheap speculation in AL-Only leagues as the Rays’ lineup merry-go-round should at least give him some chances to revive his career.

After a promising small sample 2021 and first full year in 2022, Alejandro Kirk has done little offensively since, as his HR/FB rate and ISO have plummeted, declining each season since his debut. However, his Statcast metrics have been far more stable and suggest significantly better than the 5.1% HR/FB rate he posted last season. Since he might find himself in the middle of the Jays lineup that looks rather weak and won’t kill you in batting average like many catchers, he seems like a worthy target.

It’s crazy to me that Bobby Witt Jr. just set a new career high HR/FB rate…of just 13.4%. A guy with those Statcast metrics should be posting marks in the high teens at the very least. Unfortunately, he was so good in 2024 that there won’t be any discount to be had even if you feel like he’s more of a 35-40 homer guy. One could only marvel at his skill set and the trends, especially when considering his young age.

Gabriel Moreno’s HR/FB rate was nearly cut in half last season, despite a stable HardHit%, higher maxEV, and a new career best Barrel%. Huh?! Given a similarly strong strikeout rate, he could replicate what Kirk could do, but also with a bunch of steals thrown in. A nice cheap target in two catcher leagues.

Nick Gonzales is unlikely to stand out in any category, but he most certainly deserved greater power output than he showed last year. With a touch of speed and consistently high BABIP marks throughout his minor league career, he could contribute a touch of everything from a middle infield spot. That makes him a solid NL-Only target.

Giancarlo Stanton’s HR/FB rate these past two seasons have been his lowest since 2013. But his power hasn’t truly deteriorated just yet! His Barrel% suggests he deserved a more vintage Stanton HR/FB rate than he actually produced, which would have pushed him back over the 30-homer plateau, where he has now failed to reach for two seasons. It’s hard to bet on a 35-year-old who is always injured, but I don’t see many, if any, signs of skill degradation here, especially his power.

Injury limited Austin Riley to just 469 PAs this year and he was a disappointment when he was on the field. But the results seem more like bad luck than a decline in skill. All his Statcast metrics remained consistent, his walk and strikeout rates were stable, and he even hit his highest rate of fly balls since his 2019 debut. From the surface, it would appear to be another standard Riley season, and even xwOBA agrees. But it just wasn’t to be. That should make Riley undervalued this season, as his results should fully bounce back.

LaMonte Wade Jr.’s HR/FB rate has been up and down since his first extended look back in 2021. He’s coming off a down year, but his Barrel% suggests it shouldn’t have been. With pretty strong skills across the board, including a skyhigh double digit walk rate, consistent single digit SwStk%, and a starting first base job hitting in the middle of the Giants lineup, he looks like an excellent deep league target. This is particularly true in OBP formats, where his value is significantly boosted by his plate patience.

Let’s now move on to the potential decliners.

Potential HR/FB Decliners
Name Barrels/FB+LD HR/FB
TJ Friedl 5.3% 11.9%
Gunnar Henderson 20.9% 23.9%
Ketel Marte 23.8% 25.7%
Tyler Fitzgerald 12.5% 16.7%
Mark Vientos 25.3% 26.5%
Luke Raley 20.5% 22.7%

TJ Friedl has delivered a nice combination of power and speed in recent years and figures to the open the season as the Reds’ starting center fielder and possible leadoff hitter. However, his microscopic Barrel% does not justify his double digit HR/FB rate at all. The fact that he’s done this for two seasons running suggests that either he must be doing something or perhaps it’s the magic of his home park. He has indeed posted a higher HR/FB rate at home throughout his career, though his away mark is still higher than we would expect him to post given the paltry Barrel%. I wouldn’t pay for the near 20 home runs Steamer/Depth Charts currently project and would think of him more as a steals guy with above average runs scored if he does indeed hit leadoff all season.

It was the big breakout for Gunnar Henderson many were hoping for. But was it real? His Barrel% suggests it wasn’t. In fact, his Statcast metrics were nearly identical to his 2023 season, while he hit a lower rate of fly balls this year. I would argue that this was Henderson’s short-term peak, at least with his HR/FB rate, but there’s still paths to combat that by raising his FB% or continuing to reduce his strikeout rate. Personally, I’m fairly sure he won’t end up on any of my teams given his expected price, but it’s not like he’ll be a bust and collapse.

Holy cow, and we thought Ketel Marte would never come close to replicating his dream 2019 season again! The bad news is his Barrel% didn’t quite justify the career high HR/FB rate and first time it jumped above 20%. The good news is my xHR/FB rate calculation sits at 19.9%, which would still represent a career best for him. All his skills were stable, so it really comes down to whether he could repeat that power surge. None of the projections are fully buying it, with ISO marks and home run totals essentially matching his 2023, as if 2024 never happened. That might be a fair expectation, as it’s impossible to determine whether this powered-up version at age 31 is truly here to stay.

From the 26th best Giants prospect to a .357 wOBA over about a half season, Tyler Fitzgerald was quite the pleasant surprise. But both his xwOBA and his Barrel% suggest he dramatically overperformed. He struck out over 30% of the time, posted a .380 BABIP that’s unlikely to be repeated, and recorded mediocre Statcast metrics. He figures to open as the team’s starting second baseman, but I wouldn’t invest here.

The Statcast metrics for Mark Vientos look good, but not that good. Of course, after a 26.5% HR/FB rate, most would have expected some natural regression, so his appearance here probably won’t surprise or change his perceived value much. My equation still suggests a 21% HR/FB rate, which would still allow him to surpass the 30-homer plateau and remain a nice run producer in the heart of the Mets lineup.

Luke Raley’s appearance here is one reason why he just missed out on my top 40 first basemen. His Barrel% simply didn’t justify a HR/FB over 20%, he swings and misses frequently leading to a high strikeout rate, won’t face left-handers, and plays in the league’s most pitcher friendly venue. He’ll have his AL-Only value of course, but it’ll be a challenge for much better.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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nuxieMember since 2020
26 days ago

Thought on nick yorke?