I was bearish on Addison Russell heading into the 2016 season. It had far more to do with his likely placement in the Cubs’ batting order than his actual performance expectations. Because he recorded all his plate appearances from the bottom half of the order, he amassed just 598 of them, despite remaining healthy all season and missing nary a game due to injury. That hurt his counting stats, though aside from his mediocre runs scored total, were still fairly strong from a fantasy contribution perspective. They could have been better, of course. A spot in the bottom half of the lineup had something to do with his rank of just 16 in fantasy earnings among shortstops (17 if you include Jean Segura). So although his home run total jumped from 13 to 21 and ISO spiked from .147 to .179, he was still a disappointment to fantasy owners.

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Corey Seager recorded just 113 MLB plate appearances in 2015, but he made a big splash with his performance and the lack of a track record didn’t stop the RotoGraphs ranking crew from placing him fifth among shortstop in the preseason. I was even more bullish, as my projections valued him as the second best shortstop! Seager ultimately finished fourth according to our end of season dollar values (fifth if including Jean Segura), but that probably undersells him, as he was just as good as hoped for.

Let’s recap my 2016 Pod Projection and see how my forecasts compared to his actual results.

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For some reason, I never published a Pod’s Picks and Pans for third base. Perhaps to save myself some extra embarrassment? These haven’t exactly gone so well this year. Putting myself back in the face of potential ridicule, let’s take a look back at my Pod’s Picks & Pans at shortstop. Yesterday, we published the shortstop rankings and dollar values, which the actual rankings are taken from.

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It’s shortstop week, so let’s get the ball rolling on a player I was notoriously bearish on heading into the season. I wasn’t technically pessimistic about Xander Bogaerts, I just felt that he was being massively overvalued by fantasy owners. Oops, I was wrong. Though I did get some things right. He was a particularly difficult player to project as his batted ball profile completely changed from 2014 to 2015. So much so that he appeared to be a totally different player. Which version of Bogaerts would show up in 2016? It was anyone’s guess.

Let’s see how my 2016 Pod Projection compared to his actual results.

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Though we knew that Jonathan Villar entered the 2016 season with the every day shortstop job in Milwaukee, we were so certain he wouldn’t hold onto that role for very long. You see, the Brewers had top prospect Orlando Arcia waiting in the wings at Triple-A, and we all figured he would be up by June. Instead, Villar got off to a strong start and then kept hitting, and Arcia didn’t end up debuting until August. The team eventually made room for both of them in their lineup, as Villar shifted over to third. Because Villar got that extended opportunity and ran with it (pun intended), he ended up ranking as the fourth most valuable third baseman (his shortstop rank will be published soon) and earning $26.40. How many of you expected him to earn even $10?!

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Remember when Maikel Franco led all hitters in home runs during this past spring training? His nine were two more than the next highest total hit by Robinson Cano and J.D. Martinez. Not surprisingly, this resulted in the Franco hype train filling up quickly, and his draft cost surging higher. While I don’t know what his ADP began draft season at or where it ended just before the season started, I do remember he went for an absurd price in my local auction league. Of course, he went to our resident Phillies fan, but his cost was no doubt inflated by his spring performance. Naturally, he disappointed, as he finished just 18th among third basemen in value, earning a mere $6.90.

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Before the season, I shared some of my 2016 Pod Projections and the process I followed. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Since it’s third base week on RotoGraphs, let’s review my 2016 projection for Kris Bryant and how he ultimately performed.

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We knew Trea Turner would be donning a Nationals uniform at some point in 2016, we just didn’t know when. That he didn’t end up debuting this year until early June, was then quickly demoted after appearing in just two games, and then didn’t return to become a full-timer until mid-July was a bit surprising. That’s mostly because no one expected Danny Espinosa to hold the shortstop job for long, but he managed to, as a big June (.452 wOBA) helped keep him afloat. And while fantasy owners had to wait a little longer than we hoped, Turner didn’t disappoint. He was the 12th most valuable second baseman this season, despite recording just 324 plate appearances! That’s literally half a season. Obviously, his half-season performances raises our expectations to epic proportions. But can we legitimately say he should be the 2nd second baseman off the board, or second highest paid second baseman in auctions in 2017? Brad Johnson certainly thinks so.

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Yesterday, we published the final 2016 second base rankings and dollar values. So let’s review my preseason Pod’s Picks and Pans at the position, where I identified those second base qualified hitters I was most bullish and bearish on compared to the rest of my fellow RotoGraphs rankers.

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I thought it may never be done. But Eric Hosmer finally cleared that impenetrable 20 home run barrier after many seasons of hardcore flirting. You see, Hosmer hates worms. So much so, that over 50% of the balls he has put into play over his career have been of the grounder variety. Those worms have likely learned not to pop out of the ground when he’s at the plate. But all those grounders come at the expense of fly balls. And a low fly ball rate has capped Hosmer’s home run potential. Until this year.

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