A few days ago, Jake Leech asked me if Zack Cozart’s 2017 improved plate discipline would stick into 2018.

https://twitter.com/Stroke_19/status/931525718667943936

Cozart saw quite a bit of improvement with his K%-BB% dropping by 6% points.

Note: I like using K%-B% to get an overall value for a hitters plate discipline. Earlier this year, I investigated what early season stats point to a true breakout. K%-BB%, along with launch angle (FB%), were the two key factors to focus on.

The Steamer projection has his K%-BB% regressing closer to his 2016 values than the ones from 2017. This is how projections work with previous season stats having some weight along with some regression.

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Before taking a short vacation, I reviewed the first preseason Pod vs Steamer Projections series posts, focused on home run upside. That article discussed the hitters whose home run Pod Projection was significantly greater than his Steamer projection. Today, I’ll recap the players I identified as possessing significant home run downside compared with Steamer. With the record setting home run total, this shall be interesting.

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Major league batters are generally shifting towards a fly ball approach. The idea is to hit more balls in the air. Not necessarily fly balls, in fact there are those who wish to only hit line drives. When I say in the air, I mean ‘not on the ground.’ You want the ball to leave the infield before it bounces, ideally. Preferably this happens at a very high speed.

Duh, no kidding, right? Well, yeah. Obviously hitting the ball out of the infield is the goal for just about everyone. The goal isn’t the key, we’re talking about the approach used to actualize the goal. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve finally compiled the 2017 Disabled List (DL) information. The main change from the last few seasons is the transition from the 15-day DL to 10-day DL and the subsequent increase in DL trips. With the total trips up, the number of days lost is down which makes it tough to draw any major conclusions. It’s time to dive into the numbers.

First off, I collected the information from MLB.com’s transaction list. I like to use this list because it is easy to go back and check. I waded through it and it wasn’t pretty. It took me twice as long to compile the data compared to previous seasons. I would just like to give a big thank you to ProSportsTransactions.com for having most of the missing data.

With my venting out of the way, here is how the days missed for pitchers and hitters compare over the previous 4 seasons.

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A few weeks ago, I began the process of determining an underperformance metric. In the article, I laid out the groundwork determining the drop off in plate appearances (PA) and production (wOBA). With these thresholds, I created several metrics, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. I’m not setting the values into stone yet but I’m getting closer to a solution. I’ve found a few value I like better than others.

In the original article, I found fantasy owners considered a drop in 220 PA from 600 PA (37% drop) and of 0.035 wOBA from .350 wOBA (10%) to be the thresholds. I didn’t mess with these two values. Besides the pair, I wanted to know when both occurred. Additionally, from a discussion in the comments, I found when either PA or wOBA thresholds where met and when both dropped close to, but not over, the thresholds. This value (called Minor Drop) I found to provide the most overall value.

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I’ve done this before — compare similar players, one of whom is “name-brand,” the other “generic-brand,” using blind résumés — as have many others. Ben Kaspick carried the torch a while this year, but he credited Joe Douglas with the idea. So let’s say it’s a group effort to which I’ll contribute once again.

In anticipation of 2018 drafts, I wanted to carry out a “buying generic” style of analysis, borrowing in part from too-early mock draft average draft position (ADP) data. I do not intend to construe the following comparisons as rigorous analysis. I do, however, intend to highlight some potential bargains that, if the too-early mock ADP information is concerned, warrant your attention on draft day.

Comparison #1: Outfielders

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Max Kepler wasn’t an incredibly popular sleeper heading into the 2017 season, but I was certainly far from the only analyst who was high on the young German. The 24-year-old was coming off a productive yet unspectacular rookie campaign, and was just one year removed from a breakout year in Double-A that made him a fixture on top prospect lists.

Kepler’s 2016 wasn’t eye-popping, but there were many positive signs for the rookie. His power had just started showing up in games in that breakout Double-A season a year before, and now he was taking the next step and hitting the ball over the fence (17 HR in 447 PA). It certainly wasn’t out of the question to predict another step forward in that department, perhaps to a 20-25 HR season in 2017.

He stole just six bases in the majors in 2016, but the fact that he’d swiped 19 bags in the minors the year before was reason for optimism. Furthermore, his .235 batting average was held down by a .261 BABIP, which seemed far too low for a player with pretty good speed.

In short, it wasn’t hard to envision something like .275/25 HR/15 SB if everything came together in 2017. Despite being an unproven option at a deep position, Kepler was drafted in well over half of Yahoo leagues. Like I said, not a super-popular sleeper, but not flying under the radar either.

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Every year we have a number of players who make their debut towards the end of the season, wildly exceed expectations, and leave us wondering what the future may hold. Last year we had Gary Sanchez. This year, Rhys Hoskins.

Hoskins hit the ground running. I mean, how many guys reach double digit homers before they reach double digit singles? I could probably look it up, I’m not going to. I don’t want to know. Hoskins did it, and that’s good enough for me.

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Before the 2017 season, I decided to switch up my typical “Steamer and I” series posts where I discuss one player in which my Pod Projections differ from Steamer. Instead, I compared my projections in specific fantasy categories to identify upside and downside guys my forecasts hinted at versus Steamer, representing the crowd. Let’s begin our recaps of the new series with the home run upside group, which are those hitters I projected for significantly more home runs than Steamer. Note that I extrapolated the actual Steamer home run projections to match the same number of at-bats I projected, so playing time differences wasn’t a factor.

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Back in February of 2015, I wrote the first edition of this article – I Don’t Get It: Avisail Garcia. Three seasons later, that article has held up really well. Avisail Garcia has posted less than four WAR over his last 1,615 plate appearance. However, since his 2017 campaign checked in at 4.2 WAR with strong four category production, fantasy owners are going to jump back onto the Avisailwagon. I’m here to advise caution.

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