Pod vs Steamer — Home Run Downside

Yesterday, I discussed nine hitters that my Pod Projections forecast for a lower AB/HR ratio than Steamer, giving them home run upside, in my opinion. Today, I’ll check in on a group of hitters I see as possessing significant downside compared with Steamer.

It is important to remember that out of the 206 hitters I’m forecasting for at least 10 homers, 154 of them (about 75%) are projected for a higher AB/HR rate by Pod than Steamer. That’s pretty crazy, especially since computer projections always regress heavily to the mean. I’m guessing it’s because of the historic HR/FB rates we have been seeing and the fact that I’m relying on my xHR/FB rate, which suggests drastic downside for many hitters. Steamer might be missing that downside and expecting something closer to 2017.

It’s also worth noting that it doesn’t matter a whole lot that I’m projecting a higher AB/HR rate for the majority of hitters, as a hitter’s relative AB/HR ranking is more important. Fantasy baseball is a relative game, so whether my offensive projections are higher or lower than Steamer is less relevant for converting the projections into dollar values.

Pod vs Steamer — HR Downside
Player Pod K% Pod FB% Pod HR/FB Pod AB/HR Steamer AB/HR Pod % of Steamer
David Peralta 18.8% 28.5% 10.1% 43.6 31.6 138%
Brad Miller 25.3% 36.0% 11.5% 33.5 24.3 138%
Mark Trumbo 25.2% 40.5% 14.5% 23.4 17.0 137%
Ian Desmond 23.8% 28.0% 14.0% 34.1 24.9 137%
Jean Segura 14.5% 26.0% 8.5% 53.4 41.2 129%
Christian Yelich 20.0% 24.0% 17.0% 31.4 24.3 129%
Starling Marte 19.5% 29.0% 10.0% 43.6 33.8 129%
Evan Longoria 19.3% 40.0% 10.0% 31.1 24.2 129%

I’m not sure if David Peralta would have still made this list before the humidor, but now he’s firmly atop it. We’re still just guessing how the implementation of the humidor in Arizona will affect offense, but all the speculation is in agreement that it’s going to drastically reduce runs and home runs. I’m guessing Steamer hasn’t yet published a humidor-adjusted update to Diamondbacks players yet. Peralta is now essentially replacement level in most mixed leagues.

Hmmm, I guess Steamer is still holding out hope that Brad Miller rediscovers some of that 2016 HR/FB rate magic. xHR/FB rate did mostly support that spike, but it came out of nowhere and he was right back to where he had been previously this past season. I’m actually still projecting the second highest HR/FB rate of his career, but Steamer expects even more.

Man, has Mark Trumbo been up and down or what? He posted two straight 20%+ HR/FB rates in 2012 and 2013, followed that up with a pair of marks just above 14%, surged in 2016 to the mid-20% range, and then fell back down to his 2014-2015 level last season. At age 32, I’m going to bet on the mid-teen HR/FB rate versus the mid-20% range. Oh, and don’t forget the playing time risk. With no defensive value, a sub-.300 wOBA just doesn’t cut it.

Man, this is not what we expected from Ian Desmond’s first season in the thin air of Colorado. Although his HR/FB rate doesn’t completely show it, his power actually collapsed. His Brls/True FB rate was cut in half, and he suddenly became an extreme ground ball hitter. I’m still projecting a slightly better HR/FB rate, but also remember that I’m using his xHR/FB rate of just 10.5% as one of my data points, so this represents more of a rebound in my mind than it might for everyone else. Steamer is likely taking his HR/FB rate at face value and assuming far more power during a second go around in one of the top home run parks in baseball.

Well gosh, Jean Segura is a surprising name to find here. Steamer is only projecting two more homers than I am, so this really isn’t all that actionable. But it’s clear that Steamer is using more of his 2016 HR/FB rate spike than I am. I see sub-10% xHR/FB rate marks and poor underlying power skills that I can’t get my projection up to the double digits.

Continuing what seems to be a theme here, Christian Yelich’s HR/FB rate surged in 2016, but he couldn’t sustain it and his underlying power skills regressed back to previous levels. Note that my 17% HR/FB rate projection would still be a jump from 2017 and also represent the second highest mark of his career. And yet Steamer is even more bullish! Perhaps the system is forecasting another step forward in his FB%, while I’m regressing a tiny step back.

Starling Marte played half a season after returning from a PED suspension and his power collapses, as his ISO fell to a career low of just .104. His Brls/True FB and Avg FB Dist remained relatively stable, so the blame lay squarely on his fly ball pull rate, of which fell into the high single digits, half of his 2017 mark and a third of his 2015 mark. That’s an enormous drop and I’m not sure what would cause it. I’m calling for an almost identical HR/FB rate, but Steamer may be factoring in his career best 2015 more than I am. That season was supported by the skills, but I’m not sure he will ever get close to that kind of production again.

Steamer certainly uses park factors when running projections, so it’s unlikely that Evan Longoria’s new pitcher friendly home is the explanation here. But AT&T Park is the worst park in baseball for home runs regardless of handedness and Longoria’s power disappeared last season at age 31. It now looks more like the 2016 HR/FB rate rebound was the fluke, as it had followed two straight marks near 11%.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Cromulentmember
6 years ago

I understood that Desmond had a lingering hand injury all season. Does that merit a mental adjustment?