Tommy Pham Is Now a Ray

Man, it was no fun this year being in an AL-Only league, as the biggest name to cross over was Tommy Pham. Last year, he enjoyed a surprise breakout, posting a .398 wOBA, driven by power, speed, and BABIP skillZ. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone nearly as well for him this season, as his wOBA has plummeted to just .320, thanks to a decline in his HR/FB rate and dive in his BABIP. Having lost some playing time in St. Louis recently, he should return to being an every day player in Tampa. How might his new home park impact his performance? Let’s find out.

Gosh, is there another pair of parks that play so similarly?! I could end this post right now and suggest Pham will see little impact on his performance, but I won’t, of course.

So Busch Stadium is marginally more favorable for singles than Tropicana Field, but significantly more so for doubles. Pham’s BABIP has collapsed this year and his doubles rate has declined, so moving to a worse park for these two hit types isn’t going to assist in a rebound. Tropicana is better for triples, but he has hit just seven in 1,109 career at-bats, including zero this year, and five of them occurring back in 2015. Sure, the more favorable environment for triples is a positive, but it won’t matter much.

In terms of fantasy impact, home run park factors usually make the biggest difference. But both parks sport identical marks, suppressing home runs. Hopes for Pham getting out of a pitcher friendly venue and into a more hitter friendly one didn’t happen. Pham’s HR/FB rate is down this year, but still remains over 20%. His Pull% on fly balls is actually slightly higher than last year and Hard% nearly as strong. It provides optimism that he could see a small uptick in HR/FB rate the rest of the way.

Pham has struggled with strikeouts at times, but he has kept his SwStk% below 10%, which is better than the league average. He strikes out over 20% simply because he’s so patient at the plate and swings at a below average rate of pitches both inside and outside the zone. Perhaps he would be even more effective if he became a little more aggressive swinging at pitches in the zone. Busch Stadium has likely helped a bit with his strikeout rate, but he won’t get that same benefit in Tropicana, which actually inflates strikeouts.

For the rest of the park factors, they are all almost identical. The biggest deal is the slightly higher walk factor in Tropicana, but it’s so small that the small sample size over the final two months will influence his rest of season walk rate far more than the change in park. Both parks are close to neutral in the three batted ball types, with each of them inflating pop-ups, something he has never struggled with. On the whole, the two parks are pitcher friendly, sporting five year park factors of 97, making them slight pitcher parks.

Though you might think the Cardinals have had a better offense than the Rays, that actually hasn’t been the case. The Rays have actually posted a slightly higher team wOBA, though obviously that’s partly due to the DH versus the pitcher batting. That said, the offense is now minus Wilson Ramos, so there probably won’t be much of a different in supporting cast.

The best news here comes from more secure playing time, as Pham was at risk of losing at-bats as his slump continued. But his performance and counting stat projections shouldn’t nudge after the trade.