Last season at BaseballHQ ($$), I found the expected results for hitters returning from Tommy John surgery (TJS). The research was completed with traditional stats and no StatCast information was utilized. The reason was that only one regular, Christian Vazquez, had Tommy John surgery since there was publicly available StatCast data. That changed when five hitters had the surgery last year. With the return of Didi Gregorius, all have made it to the majors. Sadly the early returns are unspectacular with Corey Seager and Shohei Ohtani struggling.

In his first three seasons, Seager posted a .876 OPS but past two seasons it has only been a .793 OPS. I included last season because he struggled while trying to play through the injury. For Ohtani, he posted a .925 OPS last year and just a .742 OPS this season. These values line up with the original TJS article.

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While I’d love to pepper my offense with Twins, Astros, Dodgers, and Brewers, the guys from the best offenses are hard to acquire, whether at the draft table or once an offense takes off in-season. The dregs of the league are still going to play 162 games, though, and not every poor team is down in the standings because of their offense so there are gems to be found.

I wanted to highlight someone from each of the poor teams (at least a couple games below .500) and see if they are someone you might want to roster the rest of the way. Oakland, New York (N), St. Louis, and San Diego weren’t included because I don’t see them in line with the rest of these poor teams.

Hanser Alberto, BAL | 2B/3B

Alberto is hitting .384/.408/.493 over his last 18 games with 1 HR and 3 SB. He has nine multi-hit games and he has batted leadoff in 12 of his 17 starts. Batting average will drive this profile with a few homers and steals, but I like that he’s atop the lineup.

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Angels

• Albert Pujols has started only six of the last 10 games.
• Brian Goodwin is hitting (.211/.244/.263) over the past two weeks after a hot start.
• Since May 21st when Andrelton Simmons went on the IL and Luis Rengifo was forced into a fulltime role, Rengifo is hitting .302/.387/.415 with no speedin 15 of 16 games.

Astros

• With George Springer on the IL, Derek Fisher is leading off and hitting .262/.326/.429.
• Yuli Gurriel is still batting fourth even though he’s hitting .240/.257/.323 over the last month.
• Jack Mayfield is hitting .074/.107/.222 while playing in seven of the last 10 games at a middle infield position.
• I’m guessing Tyler White (.220/.313/.293) will head to the bench one anyone returns from the IL with Fisher or Tony Kemp taking his place.

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An all-Orioles edition of the deep league waiver wire?! YOU BETCHA! While stinky teams are no fun to root for, there are certainly benefits to following them as a fantasy owner. That’s because a stinky team is likely composed of a slew of stinky players, and those stinky players are likely to get replaced by other, hopefully better, players. That time has come, as two new arrivals have made their way to Baltimore with an expectation of every day at-bats in the near-term.

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One of my least favorite things in fantasy baseball is lame buy low recommendations. You know the ones. It’s when everything is damn near picture perfect under the hood, there’s no real reason to be worried about the player, but their batting average is lagging because of a tiny BABIP so cosmetically they look like they’re struggling.

Sure, Marcell Ozuna is hitting .230, but he has 14 HR, 4 SB, a 92.4 mph exit velo, and 16% Barrel rate meaning he’s completely fine. No one is selling him on the cheap. He’s not a buy low just because his .226 BABIP is dragging down his average. These buy lows are truly stinky. We are primarily betting on track record over anything else as most of their numbers through two months are brutal. Let’s take a look:

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Home runs are up across the land and since 2002, the league average HR/FB rate has hit a new high, rising above 14% for the first time and above the previous high set just two years ago. Related, the league AB/HR has fallen to a new low, also beating out 2017. Batters are now homering once every 25.9 at-bats. It hasn’t all been the same top guys just hitting more. There have also been a slew of new home run kings so far this season. Let’s identify them and discuss.

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When you drafted Eddie Rosario a couple of months ago, you probably took him after the first 75 players were already picked. He may have even been the third outfielder you selected. Yet based on what Rosario has done over the nearly two months since opening day, you might rightfully believe you snuck a player with first-round value onto your roster, long after the elite hitters came off the board.

Rosario has played in all but two of the Twins’ 47 games to date, and his total of 13 home runs has him on a pace to finish in the 40-to-45 range. He is also on a trajectory to finish with more than 120 runs and 120 RBIs. Even putting those numbers into the context of this season’s power explosion, it’s clear that Rosario is having a dramatic breakout campaign, as those marks would obliterate his previous career highs (27 home runs, 87 runs, 78 RBIs).
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5/17/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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I took a look at the batting leaderboards since the start of the 2018 second half (July 19th). I didn’t set out to find anything in particular, I just wanted to see what’s been going on over the last three-plus months of games. I used a 300 PA cutoff which gave us 170 hitters. Here’s a few interesting nuggets I found on the AVG & HR boards:

BATTING AVERAGE

Christian Yelich | .357 in 457 PA – Yelich is unsurprisingly lapping the field with a 16-point advantage (he also has a 111-point OPS advantage over Mike Trout) over the next guy. I haven’t looked at every category yet, but I’m sure Yelich has substantial leads in several of them given his utterly insane finish that has carried over into this year.

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Yesterday, I shared and discussed the hitters who were leading in barrels per fly ball + line drive rate. Let’s now take a peek at the bottom dwellers. Of course, there are going to be your typical suspects, but there are some names that are surprising.

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