The All-Star break is here! That means it’s time to get polling. As has become an annual tradition, I’m going to start by comparing batter wOBA to xwOBA and pitting the xwOBA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period.

We know that xwOBA isn’t perfect (for example, it fails to account for horizontal angle, which certainly impacts results). Neither are SIERA, xERA, and the rest of the ERA estimators. In fact, no estimated/expected/forecasted equation is going to be perfect, because there will always be players that do something we have a difficult time quantifying. Furthermore, there will always be players each year that fall into either end of the extremes for no other reason than complete randomness (luck). So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing these two groups.

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Bill Buckner and Steve Bartman know better than most that baseball is a haunted sport. Downright spooky even. Curses range from the Bambino to the Billy Goat to Seattle-area Etsy witches, baseball fans subscribe to and are victims of decades long vexing hexes.

And by baseball standards, the Home Run Derby Curse is akin to the curse of being on the cover of MLB the Show. FanGraphs writers have taken hacks at diminishing this curse over the years, but the popular consciousness still loves to tout it. Their theory is fairly straight forward, relying on the idea that derby participants change their swing to try and win the derby, and can’t find their game swing again in the second half, leading to a slump.

In this article, I’ll seek to answer two questions:

In recent years, has there been a fall off between halves for derby participants?

And is there a way to try and predict who will fall off to help us humble fantasy managers sell high?

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Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article. Additionally, I’ve explained why I like to focus on OPS to evaluate hitters in this article.

American League

Angels

• Jorge Soler might not DH as often with Mike Trout off the IL. Trout might also cut into Jose Siri’s playing time.

• Vaughn Grissom (vs LHP) and Nolan Schanuel (vs RHP) might be in a first base platoon. Read the rest of this entry »

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Over the years, I’ve gone to the cutting edge of stats to find advantages. I can go into a deep analysis on any player’s fantasy value, but there isn’t always time to analyze each player’s profile. For a shortcut, I use OPS to evaluate hitters and xFIP and botERA for pitchers. They give me a good predictive look, especially in a small sample. Besides those stats, I might make a cursory look at BABIP and Contact% for hitters and K%-BB% for pitchers.

Note: Recent plate appearances could be the #1 stat to follow for hitters, but I’m going to focus on production stats.

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Right now, the Major League level seems about as full of young talent as it ever has been. High-profile prospects are more prepared than ever to make the leap, skipping past the slow grind of the minor leagues to make an immediate impact at the big-league level. This season, Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt have proven it: the former made the All-Star roster, and the latter absolutely should have been included.

Of course, bat speed is not a guarantee of success. The two examples I gave, McGonigle and Wetherholt, have both had great success without elite bat speed, sitting right around league average in the metric. But as indicators go, it can be a useful one. As we can see from the top end of this chart, bat speed can give you a strong platform to build on.

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Did not have Caleb Durbin, Power Monster, on my bingo card.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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In fantasy baseball, it’s sometimes safest to avoid platoon hitters. That’s the conventional wisdom, anyways. And in many cases, that’s the right advice. 

During drafts, hitters tagged with platoon risk, like Jarren Duran and Oneil Cruz, are often best avoided, as their upside is severely capped. In shallower leagues, when chasing upside and  racking up counting stats is particularly important, they should be especially eschewed. 

But there are formats and circumstances when platoon bats are worthwhile.

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Daullton Varsho is incredible!

This one preserved the no-hitter, but then it became a hitter.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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Every baseball and fantasy season brings wonderful surprises and massive disappointments. Among the top hitters in our Fantasy Player Rater are two Nationals (James Wood, CJ Abrams), post-200 ADP breakouts Otto Lopez and Jordan Walker, and Liam Hicks, a catcher added off FAAB and waivers in April. We know that it takes more than just our first-round selection to win our leagues, and we strive to avoid traps and busts, but it’s impossible to know who those are ahead of time. That’s why we play the game. We can break down first-rounders into three groups: those who return first-round value ($25+), those who don’t return it, but don’t sink our squad ($15-$24), and those who outright destroy us. Over the last decade, only 35-45% annually return first-round value or come close to it. Last season was a positive outlier in this regard. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani were the top producers ($40+). Juan Soto, José Ramírez, Bobby Witt Jr., Fernando Tatis, and Corbin Carroll easily returned first-round value. Elly De La Cruz was on the bubble ($24.8, 16th hitter per the 12-team Player Rater) and technically counts as a hit. Fernando Tatis Jr. had a Round 2 ADP in 12-team leagues and was a borderline first-rounder in 15s. He, too, earned $24 and change. We also had the unique occurrence of the first three pitchers off the board — Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, and Garrett Crochet — all ending the season as the top three fantasy pitchers.

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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