The title of the article is an allusion to Schott’s Miscellany, which you should definitely check out if you never have and feel compelled to know that a group of larks is called an exaltation or that a member of the 32nd degree of Freemasonry is known as a Sublime Prince of the Royal Secret.

–Reliever Rest–

The public debate of reliever usage tends to center on situational leverage, platoon advantage, and decision-making tied to the save statistic’s criteria. What is less discussed is reliever availability. We all have a vague notion that relievers who have pitched a lot recently are more l Read the rest of this entry »

It’s rankings update time! We’re coming up to the midpoint of the season, which means there are only a couple of months left of baseball to be played ::sad face::.

My usual caveat on how I rank pitchers follows:

It’s essential to remember that ERA is not a skill. It’s just a result. So I don’t really care what a pitcher’s ERA is at the moment. What I’m really interested in is their peripherals and any changes in pitch mix and/or velocity. And even if their peripherals have changed, you then have to ask yourself if its sustainable. Again, more likely is that what we initially forecasted is what is going to be posted the rest of the way, though obviously this is not always the case.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

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Today, I’ll do something I will rarely do. That is, recommend not one, but two pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery. I typically ignore such returnees, as our own Jeff Zimmerman’s research confirms what we already knew anecdotally – that in their first year back, they suffer serious performance declines. But in a deep league where you’re scraping the barrel and choosing between a near guaranteed mid-4.00 ERA just for the potential for a couple of wins and some strikeouts, the possibility, even if small, of someone league average or better instead looks more intriguing.

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Our journey to the far reaches of the fantasy dumpster take us to two National Leaguers who have recently come into playing time and are being introduced to owners for the first time. As usual, the players listed in this column are better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.
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As you are likely (hopefully) aware, I’m not a fan of small sample size analysis. In fact, it could be argued that I’m far too patient, requiring the sample size to be quite significant before I change my opinion/projection on a player. But a pitcher’s SwStk% is different. It’s a per-pitch metric, so it stabilizes rather quickly and conveys very useful information. So with that in mind, let’s browse through the SwStk% leaders over the last 30 days and look to uncover any surprise names.

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If you guessed this post might relate to BABIP, you would be right. Last year, the highest BABIP by a qualified start in either league was .339, followed by four between .320 and .330. This season, the Major League average BABIP for starters sits at .297, while for American Leaguers it stands slightly lower at .295. The five starters below lead the American League with the highest BABIP marks. There doesn’t even need to be any deep analysis done to say with near certainty that better BABIP days ahead. But of course, that would be lazy, so analysis there shall be.

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It took a dominant 11-strikeout, zero-walk performance from Taijuan Walker for the fantasy world to finally take notice of him. I don’t have ownership trend data to exemplify this, but I do have an anecdote: he was available in every league I’m in before the start, and he was owned in every league I’m in shortly after it.

The truth is Walker had demonstrated progress, described here by Eno Sarris, in his prior four starts, notching 27 strikeouts to three walks in 29 innings. Someone who hadn’t been paying attention to Walker probably wouldn’t have noticed: his ERA prior to the recent five-game surge stood at 7.33, and he had completed the sixth inning only twice in nine games. Once a hyped prospect, he looked like a 22-year-old who still needed seasoning to reach his potential.

No longer, as you will probably have to give up an asset of value to acquire Walker from a fellow owner now. The price may not be too steep given his poor ratios (4.94 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), but this is likely the highest they’ll be for the rest of the season.

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I haven’t forgotten about you National League only owners! Because I play in the American League Tout Wars, it’s far easier for me to come up with deep league names in that league. But it’s time to give you NLers some love.

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Yesterday, I dissected the batted ball distance leaderboard by looking at five hitters whose distance has validated their HR/FB rate surges. Today, I’ll look at those bringing up the rear, with five hitters whose HR/FB rate declines are supported by a dip in batted ball distance. This doesn’t necessarily mean doom and gloom the rest of the way, but that their current poor performance isn’t just bad fortune.

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It’s time once again to analyze the batted ball distance leaderboard! Woohoo. There are many ways to utilize the distance data, one of which is for validation purposes. This method of analysis is backwards looking. Does the distance back up the HR/FB rate? We can’t necessarily say a hitter is going to maintain such a distance, but we could point to it to determine whether the hitter’s performance has been legitimate or not. Has he been the beneficiary of some good fortune or has he truly been crushing/not crushing the ball?

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