Validating Five HR/FB Rate Decliners

Yesterday, I dissected the batted ball distance leaderboard by looking at five hitters whose distance has validated their HR/FB rate surges. Today, I’ll look at those bringing up the rear, with five hitters whose HR/FB rate declines are supported by a dip in batted ball distance. This doesn’t necessarily mean doom and gloom the rest of the way, but that their current poor performance isn’t just bad fortune.

Would you have guessed that Ian Kinsler hasn’t exceeded 275 feet of batted ball distance since 2009? Despite twice swatting 30 homers, Kinsler actually doesn’t possess above average power. His output is actually driven by a combination of excellent contact and lots of fly balls. Over the past three seasons, Kinsler’s distance has sat in the mid-260 range. That’s pretty pathetic and likely far lower than most would have guessed. So his decline this year isn’t that significant, but does surround him with a bunch of weaklings as he ranks 237th of 250 in distance. Aside from the power outage, he’s doing everything else we would have expected. He turned 33 yesterday, so we can’t automatically assume a rebound.

Including his minor league days, Michael Brantley had never posted an ISO above .118. He never homered more than 10 times in a season. Then last year happened, when he posted an ISO of .178, nearly doubled his previous year’s HR/FB rate and doubled his previous career high in homers in a season with 20. At age 27, it would be easy to believe it was just age-related growth as he hits his power prime. But did you know that his batted ball distance jumped a mere two feet from 2013?

His outburst was actually fueled by a spike in standard deviation of distance. That does correlate decently from year-to-year, but not as well as distance does. So a decline in power should have been expected here, but this is a bit extreme. His distance is down 20 feet, while his HR/FB rate has reverted back to his pre-2014 days. He’s actually pulling the ball more than he did last year, so it’s just a matter of not hitting it as far. I don’t know what’s behind that, but given his HR/FB rate history, the smart money says he continues at this rate. But a hot streak wouldn’t be such a surprise given his age.

Jonathan Lucroy missed time due to a fractured toe, which is not an injury you would typically expect to hamper power. Though you never know. Since 2010, he has posted distance marks ranging from essentially 280 to 290 feet, which is pretty darn good for a catcher. This year his distance is down an inexplicable 25 feet. It should be noted, however, that this number is from only 22 fly balls and homers, which is rather small, but not meaningless. His BABIP is down as well, but everything else is in line with history. Catchers are really hard to project because you never know if they are dealing with lingering injuries that cause them to be a bust. But if you have catcher issues, it couldn’t hurt to look into acquiring him.

Victor Martinez just returned from the disabled list due to knee issues, which most certainly would affect his power. The thing is, we don’t know how much he would have regressed from his unlikely career year in 2014 even if he was completely healthy. He’s already 36 and mid-30s hitters don’t typically enjoy power spikes. Because his BABIP also sits at just .234, he has been a disappointment all around. Since it is now much easier to be skeptical, he isn’t a bad guy to target, especially if you need batting average. He still hits in the middle of a power lineup so he should be a great source of runs batted in at the very least. Just don’t expect more than a 10-15 homer pace the rest of the way.

Remember when Matt Kemp suffered a power outage in 2013 after returning from shoulder surgery and then rebounded, proving his health had returned last season? His power is now even worse than his injury riddled 2013, and yet there have been no whispers of an injury! Kemp’s distance returned to the 300 foot plateau last year, after dipping to about 285 feet in 2013, so his distance is down nearly 30 feet, which is crazy. He has somehow managed to still combine for 73 RBI+R and has stolen seven bases, so he hasn’t been a complete bust for fantasy owners. He’s also walking at the lowest rate of his career. I’m really not sure what the issue is here.