Derek Dietrich & Eury Perez: Deep League Wire
I haven’t forgotten about you National League only owners! Because I play in the American League Tout Wars, it’s far easier for me to come up with deep league names in that league. But it’s time to give you NLers some love.
Derek Dietrich | 2B MIA | CBS 6% Owned
Martin Prado’s shoulder injury opened up the door for Dietrich to take over at third base for the Fish. It surprised me to see that he is still just 25 years old, as my perception was that he was an older non-prospect who’s future will always be a revolving door, heading up and down from the minors. Since he’s not the age I assumed he was, it means he actually might have some upside in his bat. Dietrich’s calling card is his power. It was on display on Sunday when he launched two homers. He owns a career minor league ISO of .213 and the rest of season ZiPS projection would put him on a pace of around 18 homers over a full season.
Though his Spd score and triples totals does suggest some speed, that hasn’t actually translated into much in the way of stolen bases. He has swiped just 13 bases over his minor league career and just two in the Majors. Given his career .227 batting average, you might assume that he strikes out too much. While he does strike out at a slightly above average clip, his poor batting average is primarily driven by a suppressed .261 BABIP. His minor league BABIP of .327 suggests some upside, as does a batted ball profile that hints at league average rates at the very least. Perhaps he’s been a bit too pull happy, which is a surefire way to post a low BABIP.
Since deep league pickups are typically short term adds, this is a perfect opportunity to remind you that you want counting stats. Speed, power or both. Over just a couple of weeks, a hitter’s batting average could bounce all over the place. So don’t concern yourself with the potential for a .220 average. Just consider his power at a middle infield slot with eligibility soon to be gained at third.
Eury Perez | OF ATL | 1% Owned
During spring training, Perez was actually in the running for a starting outfield job. It just goes to show what the state of the Braves roster was like at the time. But now with Cameron Maybin in tow, there are fewer openings. But fewer doesn’t mean none. Injuries and poor play have opened up left field and Perez was recalled last Thursday to presumably show us what he’s got. Since his promotion, he has started every game out there. The 25-year-old has all off 37 plate appearances spread out across four seasons, including this one. With little power and a career minor league walk rate of just 4.7%, it’s understandable that he hasn’t received many opportunities.
But there are some positives, of course, especially for prospective fantasy owners. He has posted a career BABIP of .350 in the minors, which means there’s a good chance he’s capable of posting an inflated mark in the Majors, though unlikely to that degree. Where Perez really makes his money is with his speed. Remember what I said above about hunting for those counting stats? Perez is your man. He has stolen 253 bases in the minors, including as many as 64 back in 2010. And he has already stolen 28 bases at Triple-A before his promotion to the Braves.
With a respectable BABIP and contact rate, ZiPS is projecting a perfectly acceptable .272 batting average. Since he could be more than just a short-term acquisition, batting average is a little more of a concern. Since he won’t kill you there, he could earn some real value with his stolen base prowess.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Thanks for the Dietrich writeup.
12 team 5×5 where i really need RBI help….
RoS based on playing time and production…
Kang Turner and Dietrich? Pick 2. Is it close?
Kang and Turner
I do need speed, but the thing that worries me about Perez is that the Braves don’t run very much and being buried in the number seventh slot he may be given the green light often. Young, who is a running fool, only had 3 steals before being kicked to the curb (of course, he didn’t et on base much either).
Sine Gonzalez became manager the team has never been higher then the 14th best base stealing team and were the 27th (2011) and 24th (2013) under Fredi’s management. Not exactly Brew’s territory, but close.
I’d like to pick up Dietrich—and have done so before in a 16 team points league.
But two problems: Flores of the Mets has been fairly productive as my middle infielder and it looks like he’s holding on to his job for now. Replacing Logan Morrison, my utility hitter, with his high walk rate (9% in a league that awards 1.2 points/walk) is also risky since he’s managed to stay healthy this season and most of last as well. And ZIPs projects 8 HRS ROS while Steamer projects 10.
What is the prognosis for Prado’s recovery? I certainly like Dietrich’s power, but I don’t want to drop a starter for a player who may help me for only a month.
Don’t know about Prado’s recovery, but I agree I’d prefer those 2 hitters you own already instead of Dietrich.
Thanks for the NL post…. just in time for me to pick a replacement for Freeman.
Which of these two would you rather have ROS? I have upside in both steals and homers.
10-team 5×5 ROTO with BB instead of R
I think Perez because he has a better shot at playing time the rest of the season. Once Prado returns, Dietrich becomes a bench bat or back to the minors.