Validating Five HR/FB Rate Surgers

It’s time once again to analyze the batted ball distance leaderboard! Woohoo. There are many ways to utilize the distance data, one of which is for validation purposes. This method of analysis is backwards looking. Does the distance back up the HR/FB rate? We can’t necessarily say a hitter is going to maintain such a distance, but we could point to it to determine whether the hitter’s performance has been legitimate or not. Has he been the beneficiary of some good fortune or has he truly been crushing/not crushing the ball?

Howie Kendrick’s career HR/FB rate trend has literally been a yo-yo, bouncing from single to double digits and back again every single season since 2008. The even years have been the troughs while the odd years have been the peaks. Since we’re in an odd year, it’s obviously a peak. But his distance has actually been pretty consistent, generally sitting between 270 and 285 feet. Not this time. His distance has skyrocketed above 286 feet for the first time in his career and amazingly ranks third in all of baseball. Oddly, his Hard% is at its lowest mark since 2011 and he’s hitting so few fly balls that you would barely have a clue his HR/FB rate is at a career high. Nearing age 32, there’s little reason to think he could maintain this distance. And he doesn’t hit enough fly balls for it to matter all that much whether his HR/FB rate is maintained or it drops to the low teens. So there’s nothing really actionable here.

I guess I could brag that I saw this coming for Starling Marte. My very first 2015 bold prediction was that he would hit 20 homers. For the past two seasons, his xHR/FB rate marks were between 15% and 16%, suggesting serious upside. Obviously, I didn’t expect a jump to above 30%, but his distance hinted at more power to come. He sits fourth in distance, right behind Kendrick, and has also taken the weird Kendrick route, hitting fly balls at a sub-20% rate and experiencing a decline in Hard%. The HR/FB rate is going to come down, while the fly ball rate should rise. He’ll end up near the 20 homer plateau and pair that with around 30 steals. Owners should enjoy the five category production.

Brandon Crawford had increased his batted ball distance by about five feet each of the past two seasons. It was nice, steady growth, though the only growth his HR/FB rate enjoyed was from 2012 to 2013. But Crawford wasn’t satisfied, and his power has exploded this year. Perhaps it has just been some minor adjustments, but whatever the explanation, what he has done already has been perfectly legit. Can it continue? Only time will tell.

Yasmani Grandal homered twice last night, so his HR/FB rate is now even higher than quoted above. Last season, his batted ball distance was about 292 feet, which represented a significant jump from the 273 feet he posted in 2013 over a small sample. Most impressive is that his strikeout rate has rebounded and he has posted the lowest SwStk% of his career. Typically we see power surges coupled with less contact. When we see power coming along with more contact, it’s rare and exciting. He still can’t hit lefties, and Don Mattingly is still clueless who his best hitters are as Grandal toils in the 7th slot, but this breakout is for real.

Justin Turner?! This is a guy who came into the year with just 15 homers in 1,129 at bats. With last night’s homer, he now has 60% of his career total in just 14% of the at-bats! Turner posted distance marks in the mid-280 range the last two seasons, which is above the league average. But this year he has transformed into an offensive force. He’s also hitting line drives 30% of the time. Who would have though that simply speaking to Marlon Byrd and making some mechanical changes at the plate would be the recipe to this major breakout?!