2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: July

It’s rankings update time! We’re coming up to the midpoint of the season, which means there are only a couple of months left of baseball to be played ::sad face::.

My usual caveat on how I rank pitchers follows:

It’s essential to remember that ERA is not a skill. It’s just a result. So I don’t really care what a pitcher’s ERA is at the moment. What I’m really interested in is their peripherals and any changes in pitch mix and/or velocity. And even if their peripherals have changed, you then have to ask yourself if its sustainable. Again, more likely is that what we initially forecasted is what is going to be posted the rest of the way, though obviously this is not always the case.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

Tanaka (The P*nis Monster)

Felix Hernandez
Chris Sale

An uncharacteristic 5.51 ERA in June pushed Felix’s season ERA above 3.00. That alone shouldn’t mean anything, but when you dive into the peripherals, perhaps there is something to be worried about. Both his strikeout and ground ball rates have fallen each month, while his walk rate has risen. His velocity has been fine, so I can’t believe it’s anything more than just a random rough patch. He’s human after all.

I did it. Sale has vaulted into the top tier that used to be reserved for just The King. The White Sox defense ranks second to last in UZR/150, the team plays in a hitter’s park and their offensive wOBA also ranks second to last. So, basically, everything that affects Sale’s fantasy stats that he has no control over are conspiring against him. And yet, he’s doing his best to avoid putting his fate in the defense or ballparks’ hands by punching out more than a third of the batters he’s faced. Oh, and he sports a Major League leader 16% SwStk%. Filthy.

Chip (The Robot)

Corey Kluber
David Price
Carlos Carrasco

Kluber posted his best monthly BABIP in June with a .304 mark, perhaps thanks to the improved infield defense, yet his ERA still sat at 3.97. Whatever. His skills remain elite and his ERA will come tumbling down at some point.

Price did his Price thing in June, posting a shiny 37/3 K/BB ratio over 35.2 innings en route to a 2.02 ERA and his SwStk% currently stands at a career best.

As I type this, Carrasco is throwing a perfect game through five innings. It was only a matter of time when Carrasco joins Kluber in the serious run prevention club. I tried my best to acquire him, but unfortunately we have smartened up the masses.

Adolf Hitler

Chris Archer
Sonny Gray
Michael Pineda
Dallas Keuchel

Since moving up in the Pod rankings, Archer has continued to dominate, posting a ridiculous 51/5 K/BB ratio in 41 June innings. He seems to be as real as one can ever be during a potential breakout season, but no matter what he does, he’s not getting moved up another tier! I also wonder when his right elbow explodes from all those sliders.

Gray is in a similar situation as Archer, having been moved up last rankings, as he has improved his skill set to start justifying a low-3.00 ERA. Of course, he continues to benefit from great fortune thanks to a .259 BABIP and 5.3% HR/FB rate, neither of which will last. But the overall skill set is strong.

Man Pineda has been up and down all year. Not his skills, which have remained outstanding, but his ERA. The Yankees brutal defense has resulted in an inflated .349 BABIP and pushed down his LOB%. The defense likely won’t get a whole lot better, but no Major League defense is bad enough to lead to a BABIP that high. So, some bad luck must be involved, and that should get better.

I hated doing it, but at least this will cut down on those calling for my head for ranking Keuchel lower. Forget about the weak contact hooey, his overall skill set is excellent. Good control, acceptable strikeout rate and grounders, grounders and more grounders. His 2.79 SIERA confirms that while of course he’s been lucky with that .238 BABIP, he’s been legitimately awesome. Just remember that his Hard% was identical to last year when he posted a league average .295 BABIP.

Patti (Josh’s Mom)

Danny Salazar
Jeff Samardzija
Scott Kazmir
Anibal Sanchez

Salazar’s HR/FB rate is now just an inflated 14.8%, rather than a crazy high number and both his BABIP and LOB% are in reasonable ranges. With his high strikeout rate and good control, it’s just a matter of getting those fly balls to stay in the park. I would bet on that and a low 3.00 ERA the rest of the way.

Samardzija’s strikeout rate has rebounded some since a down April, but it still sits below what we had expected. That said, he has the track record of better performance and will supply more than 200 innings.

Sanchez has also battled home run issues, but he’s never struggled with the long ball in the past, so this isn’t some recurring problem. He’ll return to earning mixed league value the rest of the way.

Gorbachenka (The Troll)

Collin McHugh
Masahiro Tanaka
Garrett Richards
Jake Odorizzi
Clay Buchholz
Trevor Bauer
Drew Hutchison
Jose Quintana
Taijuan Walker

I dropped McHugh a tier as three months are in the books and it looks like coming close to last year’s strikeout rate is going to present quite a challenge. Still, his overall skill set remains solid, albeit less exciting than last year and he just needs some of that Keuchel defensive support to get his ERA below 4.00.

It’s hard to recommend Tanaka with his health issues, but his skill set remains superb and his velocity is actually up since coming back from the DL. He has posted a 4.35 ERA over that time, but that’s thanks to a ridiculous 25.8% HR/FB rate. I’m making a hesitant buy call here.

Richards is proving that last year’s skill surge was mostly a fluke and given his history, there’s no reason to believe that last year was a new true talent level.

I have been placing injured players in the DL section at the bottom, but Odorizzi will be back soon and his injury wasn’t arm related.

I moved up Buchholz several tiers over the last two rankings, which is typically unheard of for a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 at the time. But his skills hinted at major ERA upside, and sure enough he has posted a 3.31 ERA in May and 2.21 ERA in June. When I stress to ignore the ERA and focus on the skills and SIERA, he’s a prime example why.

So much for this being Bauer’s big breakout, as his control has regressed and he gives up too many fly balls. But the strikeouts make him worthwhile and there’s always hope that the control improves.

I never dropped Walker after his poor start, but now he moves up a tier. His skills surged in June and given his prospect pedigree, there’s no reason to believe a strong second half isn’t in order.

Still buying Hutchison’s 3.76 SIERA.

Mike

Justin Verlander
Phil Hughes
Matt Shoemaker
Yordano Ventura
CC Sabathia
Eduardo Rodriguez
Jesse Chavez
Jesse Hahn
Lance McCullers

Verlander is finally back and his velocity is up marginally from last season, but still pales in comparison to his peak. Unfortunately, he’s throwing fewer strikes and he’s not generating swings and misses, with his lowest SwStk% of his career. I was optimistic about a rebound, but now I’m thinking that until he proves last year’s peripherals are not his new baseline, then I’m going to rank him as if they are.

Is Ventura another member of the club of pitchers whose raw stuff doesn’t match his strikeout rate? He’s still plenty good, but it seems like just a small adjustment could lead to a big breakout at some point. For now though, he’s just merely good, rather than exciting.

It’s only when the season is officially over that I will admit to being wrong about Sabathia. Call it stubbornness or complete faith in the underlying peripherals. He can’t keep giving up homers on 18% of his fly balls allowed.

Rodriguez has posted skills more or less in line with his minor league history, which is a good sign. And both his changeup and slider have been pretty good at inducing swings and misses, but a strike rate below the league average suggests that walk rate could jump.

Despite having never thrown a pitch at the Triple-A level, McCullers has dominated, striking out nearly 27% of batters he has faced, inducing grounders and displaying acceptable enough control. His curve has been fantastic, but just like with any rookie, we can’t be sure how long this lasts.

Liz

R.A. Dickey
Jered Weaver
Rick Porcello
Wade Miley
Wei-Yin Chen
C.J. Wilson
Colby Lewis
Ubaldo Jimenez
Yovani Gallardo
Nate Karns
Erasmo Ramirez

Both Dickey and Weaver drop as their skills are in rapid decline. In Weaver’s case, his velocity has hit laughably low levels. I can’t even be sure he’ll earn AL-Only league value at this point.

I don’t really care about Porcello’s ugly 6.08 ERA, but the Red Sox defense won’t do him in favors and his typically strong ground ball rate has disappeared. The strikeout rate rebound is nice though.

No matter how long this good pitching by Jimenez lasts, I just cannot believe that it will continue. Considering his velocity sits at an identical level as last season, which ties for a career low, and his pitch mix remains similar, this career year cannot all be the result of just throwing a slightly higher rate of strikes. So I throw up my hands and just assume this isn’t sustainable.

Gallardo’s skills have held up well upon his move to the American League and he has even induced a career high rate of grounders. But of course, lady luck has been on his side, given a SIERA more than a full run higher than his ERA. That won’t continue, but he has pitched better than I expected him to.

Josh

Trevor May
J.A. Happ
Kendall Graveman
Carlos Rodon
Chris Tillman
Jason Vargas
Nathan Eovaldi
Edinson Volquez
Hector Santiago
Chris Young
Bud Norris
Justin Masterson
Danny Duffy

Both Tillman’s skills and luck have taken a nosedive, which is a deadly combination for a guy whose skills weren’t all that good to begin with. Without the luck, he’s useless. Only the small prospect of rediscovering his past magic even keeps him ranked at all.

Eovaldi remains a tease, but that .352 BABIP has a lot to do with his disappointing season. That darn Yankees defense strikes again!

What a crazy season Santiago is enjoying. His skills have improved marginally from last year, but an suppressed .242 BABIP and insane 88.5% LOB% have kept his ERA in the mid-2.00 range. He’s as good a sell candidate as it gets.

Injured/Suspended

I’ve stopped bothering ranking injured pitchers. With return dates always up in the air and the chance for a setback, easier to just group them all together and revisit when they do make it back.

Hisashi Iwakuma
Derek Holland
Ervin Santana
James Paxton

***I am departing for China late this evening for a 2 week vacation. So if you email or Tweet at me with no response, know that I am not ignoring you, but likely either eating Chinese food at the moment, or sitting on the toilet after having eaten said Chinese food.