Shocking Home Run Totals

Contrary to what you might assume given my status as a veteran RotoGraphs writer and member of the Tout Wars and LABR leagues, I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to players on none of my fantasy teams. So every so often, I express surprise, or perhaps even shock, when I peruse the day’s box scores and notice a batting average or counting stat from a player at a level far off from our expectations. “Player X has 15 homers already?!?!” is how I will frequently react. Let’s discuss some of these players.

Carlos Beltran | 16 long balls

Seriously, if you didn’t own Beltran, did you have a clue that he has already hit 16 home runs? He hit all of 19 last year and finished with just 15 the season before. He’s also 39 years old and every year we think he’s just about toast. And then he does this. His ISO sits at its highest mark since 2006 and HR/FB rate is at a career high. Interestingly, his strikeout rate is at a career high, while his walk rate is at a career low. One might assume he’s selling out for power, but his plate discipline stats do not tell that story. His Swing% is actually below his mark last year and right in line with where he has been since 2012, while his SwStk% is just barely above his career average. A batted ball distance of 286 feet, ranking 122nd, is only marginally above the league average, and confirms that this fast start is mostly a fluke.

Ian Kinsler | 13 taters

Kinsler hit 11 all last season and hasn’t hit more than 19 since 2011. But his HR/FB rate isn’t actually all that high, at least from an absolute perspective. While his 13.8% mark does represent a personal career best, that’s not that much higher than the league average. Kinsler has always supplied his home runs, not from excellent power, but from his excellent contact ability and fly ball tendency. This year he’s hitting even more fly balls, but unlike Beltran, might actually be changing his approach and selling out. His strikeout rate is at a career high, but this time it’s supported by a career worst SwStk%. And since his batted ball distance is up at 285 feet, nearly the same as Beltran’s, Kinsler’s home run total hasn’t been fluky.

Marcus Semien | 12 bombs

With both power and speed, Semien was a popular sleeper/breakout pick heading into the season. So far, the power has surged, but a collapse in BABIP has left his wOBA barely higher than last year. He’s hitting more fly balls, mostly at the expense of line drives, which is no doubt hurting his BABIP, but his home run surge is primarily due to a doubling of his HR/FB rate. Unfortunately, with a batted ball distance of only about 284 feet, it’s highly unlikely he sustains such a high HR/FB rate.

Gregory Polanco | 9 big flies

In 390 fewer plate appearances, Polanco has hit just as many home runs this year as he has all of last. Of course, this isn’t all that surprising to me, as he was one of eight I identified as possessing major HR/FB rate upside this year. Unlike the other names in this article, Polanco isn’t striking out more or hitting any additional fly balls. The power spike is driven entirely by a near tripling of his HR/FB rate. Part of the explanation behind the jump is that his fly ball pull rate has rebounded off its low from last year. More pulled fly balls typically results in more home runs. The rest of the explanation stems from a batted ball distance that has jumped 21 feet from last year. Polanco is legit and coupled with a spike in walk rate, this is a real breakout.

Eduardo Nunez | 9 dingers

Nunez was actually the inspiration behind this article. Last week, he hit two homers in a game, putting him at nine. Nine homers already for Eduardo Nunez?!?!?!?! That’s what I thought. He has literally never hit more than nine in any professional season, and his high of nine was first set all the way back in 2009 at Double-A. But all of a sudden, Nunez has gone from a guy contributing some speed in his sporadic playing time along with limited power, to a five category contributor! Seriously, check the stats, I’m as shocked as you. While he has decided to stop walking, his strikeout rate is unchanged, but his fly ball rate has rebounded back to his pre-2014 levels, after a two year trough. Most importantly, his HR/FB rate has jumped into the double digits for the first time. Unfortunately for lucky fantasy owners, a batted ball distance of just 272 feet suggests that he won’t maintain a HR/FB rate above the league average for long.