For some reason, I never published a Pod’s Picks and Pans for third base. Perhaps to save myself some extra embarrassment? These haven’t exactly gone so well this year. Putting myself back in the face of potential ridicule, let’s take a look back at my Pod’s Picks & Pans at shortstop. Yesterday, we published the shortstop rankings and dollar values, which the actual rankings are taken from.
It’s shortstop week, so let’s get the ball rolling on a player I was notoriously bearish on heading into the season. I wasn’t technically pessimistic about Xander Bogaerts, I just felt that he was being massively overvalued by fantasy owners. Oops, I was wrong. Though I did get some things right. He was a particularly difficult player to project as his batted ball profile completely changed from 2014 to 2015. So much so that he appeared to be a totally different player. Which version of Bogaerts would show up in 2016? It was anyone’s guess.
Let’s see how my 2016 Pod Projection compared to his actual results.
Nolan Arenado didn’t have many flaws in 2015. He played in 157 games, hit 42 home runs, struck out just 16.5 percent of his plate appearances, and carried a .287 batting average that was supported by a sustainable .284 BABIP. But this season, Arenado still found a way to make a major improvement. He nearly doubled his walk rate from 5.1 percent to 9.8 percent, which increased his on-base percentage by 41 points and runs total by 19 without making much of an impact on any of the rest of his statistics. He was the No. 1 fantasy third baseman this year, and we project him to be the No. 2 fantasy third baseman next season.
When a player is that productive, there typically isn’t much else that needs to be said for fantasy purposes. Still, I’m always fascinated by the elite Rockies players because of their extreme ballpark, and Arenado has followed the same path that players like Larry Walker and Troy Tulowitzki blazed before him.
Though we knew that Jonathan Villar entered the 2016 season with the every day shortstop job in Milwaukee, we were so certain he wouldn’t hold onto that role for very long. You see, the Brewers had top prospect Orlando Arcia waiting in the wings at Triple-A, and we all figured he would be up by June. Instead, Villar got off to a strong start and then kept hitting, and Arcia didn’t end up debuting until August. The team eventually made room for both of them in their lineup, as Villar shifted over to third. Because Villar got that extended opportunity and ran with it (pun intended), he ended up ranking as the fourth most valuable third baseman (his shortstop rank will be published soon) and earning $26.40. How many of you expected him to earn even $10?!
Remember when Maikel Franco led all hitters in home runs during this past spring training? His nine were two more than the next highest total hit by Robinson Cano and J.D. Martinez. Not surprisingly, this resulted in the Franco hype train filling up quickly, and his draft cost surging higher. While I don’t know what his ADP began draft season at or where it ended just before the season started, I do remember he went for an absurd price in my local auction league. Of course, he went to our resident Phillies fan, but his cost was no doubt inflated by his spring performance. Naturally, he disappointed, as he finished just 18th among third basemen in value, earning a mere $6.90.
Before the season, I shared some of my 2016 Pod Projections and the process I followed. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.
Since it’s third base week on RotoGraphs, let’s review my 2016 projection for Kris Bryant and how he ultimately performed.
We knew Trea Turner would be donning a Nationals uniform at some point in 2016, we just didn’t know when. That he didn’t end up debuting this year until early June, was then quickly demoted after appearing in just two games, and then didn’t return to become a full-timer until mid-July was a bit surprising. That’s mostly because no one expected Danny Espinosa to hold the shortstop job for long, but he managed to, as a big June (.452 wOBA) helped keep him afloat. And while fantasy owners had to wait a little longer than we hoped, Turner didn’t disappoint. He was the 12th most valuable second baseman this season, despite recording just 324 plate appearances! That’s literally half a season. Obviously, his half-season performances raises our expectations to epic proportions. But can we legitimately say he should be the 2nd second baseman off the board, or second highest paid second baseman in auctions in 2017? Brad Johnson certainly thinks so.
Yesterday, we published the final 2016 second base rankings and dollar values. So let’s review my preseason Pod’s Picks and Pans at the position, where I identified those second base qualified hitters I was most bullish and bearish on compared to the rest of my fellow RotoGraphs rankers.
I thought it may never be done. But Eric Hosmer finally cleared that impenetrable 20 home run barrier after many seasons of hardcore flirting. You see, Hosmer hates worms. So much so, that over 50% of the balls he has put into play over his career have been of the grounder variety. Those worms have likely learned not to pop out of the ground when he’s at the plate. But all those grounders come at the expense of fly balls. And a low fly ball rate has capped Hosmer’s home run potential. Until this year.
It was no secret that I was a big Wil Myers fan heading into 2016. He appeared on my 8 Hitters With Major HR/FB Upside list, which, in part, led to my bold prediction that he’d hit 25 homers and knock in 90 runs. He made me look good. Thank you Wil. But aside from staying healthy, there was another part of his fantasy performance that surprised even the most bullish of the optimists — a hefty 28 steals.
