Reviewing 2016 Pod Projections: Kris Bryant

Before the season, I shared some of my 2016 Pod Projections and the process I followed. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Since it’s third base week on RotoGraphs, let’s review my 2016 projection for Kris Bryant and how he ultimately performed.

Projected Plate Appearances: 661 | Actual Plate Appearances: 699

Bryant ranked 10th in baseball in total plate appearances, which speaks to both his good health and the strong Cubs lineup that turned over more than most. Furthermore, my projection assumed he would be hitting cleanup all season, but instead, he batted most often out of the two hole, while also getting about 40% of his plate appearances in the third spot.

Projected BB%: 11.2% | Actual BB%: 10.7%

As I suspected, Bryant’s walk rate regressed a bit from his 2015 debut. I originally noted that his Swing% was above the league average last year and therefore was a bit surprised he managed such a strong walk rate. Interestingly, he was intentionally walked 5 times this year, versus 0 in 2015, and yet still fell short of his walk rate. He once again swung more often than the league average, but what has helped his walk rate is an inflated SwStk%. If you’re swinging a lot, but not making contact, you still have a chance to work a deep count and draw the walk!

Projected K%: 28.8% | Actual K%: 22%

I figured there was only room for improvement from his 30.6% strikeout rate during his 2015 debut, and although I was right directionally, I was still far off. He dramatically exceeded all expectations, as his strikeout rate dropped significantly. He still swung and missed more often than the average though, but the improvement quickly moved him into MVP candidate territory. Unfortunately, I’m not sure how sustainable such an improvement is. His 13% SwStk% is well above the 10.1% average, yet his strikeout rate was only marginally worse than league average. I’d bet on his strikeout rate rising again next year, but settling in closer to his 2016 mark than his 2015 level.

Projected GB%/LD%/FB%: 37% / 20% / 43% | Actual GB%/LD%/FB%: 30.5% / 23.7% / 45.8%

Bryant debuted as an extreme fly baller, keeping that tendency from his minor league days. But since extreme fly balling is exhibited by only a small group, I figured the correct move would be to project some regression toward the league average. So I forecasted a minor decline in fly ball rate, but I was wrong. He actually upped his fly ball rate ever so slightly, while swapping some grounders for line drives. All those fly balls is how he could flirt with the 40 homer plateau despite failing to reach a 20% HR/FB rate. Since we’ve now seen then level two years running, I’ll probably stick with a similar distribution in my 2017 projection.

Projected BABIP: .330 | Actual BABIP: .332

Boom! Nearly right on the nose. Bryant somehow managed to post a .378 BABIP in 2015 despite his extreme fly ball rate and only a league average rate of line drives. His xBABIP that year was also just .316, so I saw little chance he would come anywhere close to that .378 mark again. I haven’t yet run 2016 xBABIP marks yet, but I would imagine it would be similar, as he offset a jump in line drive rate and Hard% with a higher IFFB% and Pull%. I still don’t believe a .330+ BABIP is truly sustainable given a mid-40% fly ball rate. Depending on what his strikeout rate does next year, there could be some hidden batting average downside.

Projected HR/FB Ratio: 18.0% | Actual HR/FB Ratio: 18.8%

Almost nailed this one too, especially surprising given the HR/FB surge this year. While a .371 wOBA during his rookie season couldn’t possibly be viewed as a disappointment, Bryant’s 15.8% HR/FB rate most certainly was. I would imagine everyone expected some improvement there, and Bryant delivered. He upped his fly ball exit velocity marginally, from 91.5 mph to 92.2 mph, and given his minor league track record and scouting reports, you would imagine there’s still room for further growth.

Projected Runs and RBI: 86 and 96 | Actual Runs and RBI: 121 and 102

Woah. Bryant tied for the fourth highest R+RBI total in baseball, which was fueled in part by being part of an offense that scored the third most runs and recorded the third highest wOBA. He wasn’t even all that clutch as his wOBA was highest with the bases empty. He likely just had a ton of opportunities to knock in runners and the bats behind him performed admirably in knocking him home.

Projected SB: 10 | Actual SB: 8

While Bryant stole as many as 15 bases during a year in the minors (2014), he’s not exactly who we think of when we think of speedsters. He surprised us with 13 steals in 2015, and you figure Joe Maddon’s philosophy had something to do with that. Still, it was hard to envision a repeat, even given Maddon’s continue presence. I thought the Cubs might run less given a stacked offense, and they certainly did! They attempted 132 steals in 2015, but just 100 in 2016. So Bryant’s attempts dipped with the rest of the team’s. He still owns averageish speed so I’d expect stolen base totals to remain in this high single digit to low teen range for now.

Below was my final projected fantasy batting line, along with the other systems for comparison, and Bryant’s actual stats.

We were all low on the batting average because nearly all of us projected a strikeout rate in the 28% range. That was the biggest surprise. I was the closest in BABIP though, so my miss was driven solely by that strikeout rate gap. We all underprojected his home run total, once again, mostly due to the massively improved strikeout rate. You can see a theme here. While I don’t know how much Bryant is going to cost in 2017 drafts, he’s going to most likely have to maintain the dramatically improved strikeout rate to break even for his owners. Do you think he will?