This article ranks the game’s top projected hitting prospects by peak wRC+ heading into 2024 (it does not incorporate any 2024 data). It is a counterpart to this February piece on baseball’s top projected pitching prospects. I only just got done with my offseason methodological updates for hitters–please forgive me for publishing this one week into the season!
This article looks at the predictive power of spring training statistics last year for hitters. It applies learnings from last year to highlight a few movers and shakers so far this spring (based on spring games through 3/13).
This is Jordan Rosenblum’s debut at Rotographs.
I’ve spent the last couple of seasons building out a fully-fledged projection system. You may have seen the StuffPlus-fueled version of them, ppERA, published by Eno Sarris over at The Athletic, or else variations of them elsewhere. Like most projection systems, mine includes aging curves, major league equivalencies, park factors, league run environment adjustments, historical performance, and regression to the mean.
My pitching projections performed well in terms of predictive accuracy in 2023, generally holding their own against other more established projection systems, with my rookie projections performing especially well. I must, however, concede that Steamer dominated the field overall—all hail! This article unveils my top 10 projected pitching prospects for 2024 and beyond, highlighting names worth breaking the TINSTAAP pledge for.
I know we’ve been having fun, giving out our totally officials awards at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop, but things are about to take a dark turn.
It might be sad, it might be depressive but writing this has again put me in a bad place; a place filled with bad trades, bad stats, and absolutely, positively, no (NO!) fun. Read the rest of this entry »
We’ve had appetizers at catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop, but now it’s time to look upward for some protein (powder).
Looking for someone who ascends to heights normally only dreamt of by those who grew up wearing Husky brand jeans. Arching high into the sky, going even further beyond the Chili’s down on Maple where many of his lookalike peers will go to celebrate if they beat Mitch’s Hardware on Wednesday night.
A player whose ability to hit bombs is matched only by his resemblance to someone who looks like they play in a league where there’s a keg at each base.
The People’s Hero. Every year he rises up (hopefully, to see if that waitress is ever going to bring out more ranch for our Texas cheese fries), and every year we recognize him.
Ladies & Gentlemen: The Thirdies Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome back to what was recently named the #2 fantasy award show in the nation according to people and pets who live in my house. Don’t act like you’re not impressed.
We’ve already handed out our prestigious awards at catcher, first base, and second base, so let’s keep it moving around the horn. But first, since children need to be taken to the library, I’m afraid that you’re going to have to come up with your own dated Fifty Cent references – I simply have no time.
Ja-Ja-Ja G-Unit – It’s the Shorties!
Attention! Attention! All seat fillers need to get up and please move outside to the concourse. Immediately. We’ve made it through the Catchies and the Firsties but we’re about to get going again and we just can’t have any of you normies accidentally getting on camera and making everyone at home feel sad.
Thank you for your service and please collect your payment from the front – which may or may not be a swag bag filled with all of the Kylie Jenner lip glosses that were banned by the FDA because the test animals started sprouting extra noses she really wanted to donate for all of her loyal fans.
It’s the Secondies!
Thank you, thank you. Welcome back to the next round of fantasy baseball awards that nearly no one was asking for! I’m talking, of course, about the Firsties! The Firsties first came into our lives over 40 years ago and we here at the Academy would like to thank all of you for continuing to care super, duper, deeply about these fake awards. But before we get into these hotly contested awards, the committee would like to make one small announcement, as there seems to have been some earlier confusion about acceptable levels of shenanigans.
Just so we’re crystal – we are currently operating at a 0% Shenanigan Level. Not 10%, not 5%, not even 1%. Zero. Anyone not adhering to said policy will be asked to go inside and stop letting the sun warm your face for a minimum of one month because it’s time to get cereal. Super cereal.
Let the show continue – it’s the Firsties! Read the rest of this entry »
*Small smattering of applause that sounds a lot like my wife imploring our kids to “please just clap for Daddy doing his dumb thing”.*
Thank you, thank you – and welcome back to the nation’s most premier(est) fantasy baseball award ceremony! We’ll be starting our offseason festivities off with the tools of ignorance – and no, I’m not talking about my projection methodology (awkward pause)…
*obviously canned audience laughter*
There it is! Now, please, just sit back, relax, and get ready for more bad jokes and lots of talk about the grown men who play on our pretend baseball teams.
It’s the Catchies!
bUT tHe RoooLLzzzz!!!
Ronald Acuña Jr. just stole his 70th base, lifted it out of the ground and thrust it into the air. Boss move.
A 40/40 season is phenomenal. A 40/70 season is inconceivable. Forget the new rules. It's ridiculous.
If he wins MVP — and he's probably going to — he'll deserve it.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 28, 2023
On the Agenda
These abbreviated notes are brought to you by me working off my phone’s hotspot due to our jerk store neighbors knocking out the neighborhood’s internet on Monday because they didn’t get their utility lines marked before putting in a new sprinkler system.
Salute to you.
News and Notes
Ryan Mountcastle returned to the Orioles lineup yesterday after missing around two weeks with shoulder inflammation. Mountcastle was in a mini-slump before eventually being placed on the IL, going 0-for-18 in his last five games, but prior to that had been having a monstrous second half, slashing .353/.425/.538 over 179 PA since the break, with a .411 wOBA and 168 wRC+.
The return of Mountcastle will likely pump the breaks on us finishing the fantasy season with a Ryan O’Hearn SZN – while Mountcastle was injured, O’Hearn slashed .286/.314/.469 over 52 PA, with 2 HR but had most recently gone 0-for-13.
Jeimer Candelario returned yesterday after being sidelined since September 11 with a back strain, going 0-for-4. Candelario has been one of fantasy’s nice surprises this season but had been struggling prior to going on the IL, slashing just .141/.242/.359 over his last 25 games.
Bumps and Bruises
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was scratched from Wednesday’s game with left shoulder tightness but it doesn’t appear to be serious and he could return as soon as today. Consider him day-to-day.
Nolan Schanuel missed his second straight game yesterday with a tight knee. Consider him day-to-day.
Yandy Díaz missed his second straight game after coming up with a tight right hamstring on Sunday. Consider him day-to-day. But first, let us pause for the lamest victory lap ever…I told y’all my guy Yandy has been a points league god for a while, especially in leagues with a strikeout penalty – with the season coming to a close, Díaz is the #18 hitter on ESPN, #26 on CBS, #30 on NFBC, #34 on Yahoo, and #38 on Fantrax.
Points. God.
Streaming Pitchers
Streaming Pitcher for Today: David Peterson, NYM vs MIA – If you’re looking for ratios and/or wins, Peterson probably isn’t your guy but if in need of strikeouts, he’s easily the best option available. Peterson has a 4.73 ERA (3.07 FIP) and 1.39 WHIP, with zero wins over his last five starts but also racked up 37 K in 26.2 IP, with a 32% K%.
High Risk for Today: Touki Touissant, CHW vs ARI – Touissant is coming off of back-to-back good starts, allowing a total of 2 ER over 11.1 IP, with 10 K. But his strikeout ability tends to come and go (he had 8 K vs MIN, and 2 K vs BOS) and big blowups remain firmly in his bag – prior to the two good starts, Touissant had his doors blown off by the freaking Royals, allowing 8 ER in just 1 IP.
Streaming Pitcher for Tomorrow: Ken Waldichuk, OAK @LAA – In four September starts, Waldichuk has a 3.27 ERA (3.76 FIP) over 22 IP, striking out 15 and picking up two Wins. But while he was stellar in three of those starts (18 IP, 2 ER), San Diego tagged him for 6 ER in 4 IP because he’s still Ken Waldichuk.
But hey! If you can’t put your fantasy championship hopes and dreams on an Oakland A’s pitcher, what’s even the point?
