Archive for Head to Head

Projections-Fueled Top 60 Prospects, Midseason Update

We’re getting close to 50% completion of the 2024 season, so I thought the time was right for a midseason update to my projections-based prospect ranks. You can find more methodological detail, along with the preseason lists here (bats) and here (arms).

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A Way-Too-Early Look at the Importance of Bat Speed

This article takes a look at some of the new bat tracking metrics published this week at Baseball Savant. It aims to help readers incorporate the new metrics into their analysis toolkit.

Bat tracking metrics have now been published for 2024, starting on April 3rd. Last year, Baseball America published a test version of average bat speed as well. The operationalization of the bat tracking metrics has been tweaked since the Baseball America version was published, but so far, this is the data we have to work with.

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The Top 30 Projected Hitting Prospects Entering 2024

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

This article ranks the game’s top projected hitting prospects by peak wRC+ heading into 2024 (it does not incorporate any 2024 data). It is a counterpart to this February piece on baseball’s top projected pitching prospects. I only just got done with my offseason methodological updates for hitters–please forgive me for publishing this one week into the season!

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Taking Spring Training a Little too Seriously: Hitter Edition

This article looks at the predictive power of spring training statistics last year for hitters. It applies learnings from last year to highlight a few movers and shakers so far this spring (based on spring games through 3/13).

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There *is* Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect: the Top 10 by Projected ERA at Peak

This is Jordan Rosenblum’s debut at Rotographs. 

I’ve spent the last couple of seasons building out a fully-fledged projection system. You may have seen the StuffPlus-fueled version of them, ppERA, published by Eno Sarris over at The Athletic, or else variations of them elsewhere. Like most projection systems, mine includes aging curves, major league equivalencies, park factors, league run environment adjustments, historical performance, and regression to the mean.

My pitching projections performed well in terms of predictive accuracy in 2023, generally holding their own against other more established projection systems, with my rookie projections performing especially well. I must, however, concede that Steamer dominated the field overall—all hail! This article unveils my top 10 projected pitching prospects for 2024 and beyond, highlighting names worth breaking the TINSTAAP pledge for.

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The 8th Annual Outies!

I know we’ve been having fun, giving out our totally officials awards at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop, but things are about to take a dark turn.

It might be sad, it might be depressive but writing this has again put me in a bad place; a place filled with bad trades, bad stats, and absolutely, positively, no (NO!) fun. Read the rest of this entry »


The 3rd Annual Thirdies!

We’ve had appetizers at catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop, but now it’s time to look upward for some protein (powder).

Looking for someone who ascends to heights normally only dreamt of by those who grew up wearing Husky brand jeans. Arching high into the sky, going even further beyond the Chili’s down on Maple where many of his lookalike peers will go to celebrate if they beat Mitch’s Hardware on Wednesday night.

A player whose ability to hit bombs is matched only by his resemblance to someone who looks like they play in a league where there’s a keg at each base.

The People’s Hero. Every year he rises up (hopefully, to see if that waitress is ever going to bring out more ranch for our Texas cheese fries), and every year we recognize him.

Ladies & Gentlemen: The Thirdies Read the rest of this entry »


The Sixth Annual Shorties

Welcome back to what was recently named the #2 fantasy award show in the nation according to people and pets who live in my house. Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

We’ve already handed out our prestigious awards at catcher, first base, and second base, so let’s keep it moving around the horn. But first, since children need to be taken to the library, I’m afraid that you’re going to have to come up with your own dated Fifty Cent references – I simply have no time.

Ja-Ja-Ja G-Unit – It’s the Shorties!

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The Second Annual Secondies!

Attention! Attention! All seat fillers need to get up and please move outside to the concourse. Immediately. We’ve made it through the Catchies and the Firsties but we’re about to get going again and we just can’t have any of you normies accidentally getting on camera and making everyone at home feel sad.

Thank you for your service and please collect your payment from the front – which may or may not be a swag bag filled with all of the Kylie Jenner lip glosses that were banned by the FDA because the test animals started sprouting extra noses she really wanted to donate for all of her loyal fans.

It’s the Secondies!

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The 41st Annual Firsties!

Thank you, thank you. Welcome back to the next round of fantasy baseball awards that nearly no one was asking for! I’m talking, of course, about the Firsties! The Firsties first came into our lives over 40 years ago and we here at the Academy would like to thank all of you for continuing to care super, duper, deeply about these fake awards. But before we get into these hotly contested awards, the committee would like to make one small announcement, as there seems to have been some earlier confusion about acceptable levels of shenanigans.

Just so we’re crystal – we are currently operating at a 0% Shenanigan Level. Not 10%, not 5%, not even 1%. Zero. Anyone not adhering to said policy will be asked to go inside and stop letting the sun warm your face for a minimum of one month because it’s time to get cereal. Super cereal.

Let the show continue – it’s the Firsties! Read the rest of this entry »