This series aims to help readers conduct their routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to discuss a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who may have seen their perceived value shift recently. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C) with OOPSY DC (ROS).
With the end of the season in sight, it’s time to kick season-long strategies out of the driver’s seat. Slow and steady may win the race if you’re a tortoise, but in fantasy baseball, it’s either sprint or switch over to football. And who even likes football?
When I say sprint, I mean sprint while throwing any and all things that could weigh you down over your shoulder. Especially in 12-teamers and shallow leagues, this needs to be the mindset. Small sample size holding you back? There’s only a small sample size left! Things are going to be random. It’s getting wiggy.
Hitters have so many days to frustrate you. Owning Gunnar Henderson this season has been like wading into a pool with a freshly made pizza. Like sure, there’s moments you may enjoy, like the pepperoni-and-pineapple sweet 3-5 game with a bomb. But then your hands get wet, you can barely stand, let alone eat your pizza, and Gunnar is in the midst of a 3-43 stretch. Without a steal.
You get the picture.
But today, I’m going to focus on starting pitchers. Relievers are more volatile, and if you’re chasing saves in Roto, best of luck and look to Hogan Harris, I guess? But starting pitchers are truly the kings of the small sample size, especially when the calendar inevitably flips to August.
We’re through 16 periods of the inaugural Tout Wars Champions league. It uses a H2H format in which teams earn a win for the week if they win more categories than their opponent. Sadly, my season hasn’t exactly gone as hoped. I originally used an extreme and risky draft strategy that saw me dump three categories, and it’s been challenging to succeed with it given that my top two picks have been complete busts (Garrett Crochet and Cal Raleigh), which has resulted in my current 11th place standing. Yuck!
A little over a month ago, I wrote up a handful of hitters that were underperforming their draft cost, were readily available to pick up in most 12-teamers, and why they were primed to break through.
Looking at underlying numbers from this season and comparing them to last season for struggling players can help identify when a player may be on the cusp of coming on strong after a weak stretch.
Kyle Stowers was one such player. Coming back from injury, Stowers scuffled through mid-June, with an OPS below .700 and a K% near 30%. But from June 12 on, when I published the piece, he has slashed .261/.341/.521 with seven homers and 23 RBI. He had been squaring up the ball in the weeks leading up to this breakthrough. But without the results.
Of course, the same process told me to consider Alec Bohm, who is himself rocking on OPS below .700 since I shouted out his hot run at the end of May and into June. I’m no wizard.
But late in the year, hot stretches are incredibly valuable. I’m sure I don’t need to tell you that, but it bears repeating. Whether it be in head-to-head leagues, where a hot stretch in the late summer can lift you over opponents, or in season long roto leagues where you find yourself lagging in homers, the hot stretch is like a hot pastrami. Undeniably savory. Perfect.
Now let’s look at some hitters, focusing on a selection of players rostered at different rates between CBS and Yahoo. Consider these hitters, particularly those in the top tier, options to replace struggling veteranslike those that Mike Podhorzer wrote up a few days back. And if you are in a shallower league where these hitters are rostered, consider the art of the deal!
In fantasy baseball, it’s sometimes safest to avoid platoon hitters. That’s the conventional wisdom, anyways. And in many cases, that’s the right advice.
During drafts, hitters tagged with platoon risk, like Jarren Duran and Oneil Cruz, are often best avoided, as their upside is severely capped. In shallower leagues, when chasing upside and racking up counting stats is particularly important, they should be especially eschewed.
But there are formats and circumstances when platoon bats are worthwhile.
Tyler O’Neill homers on Opening Day. Mike Trout homers on his birthday. And new dads homer what feels like all the time.
So in honor of Father’s Day, I’ll comb through the Fangraphs Transaction Tracker to find a few newly minted pops, check in on how their season has been going, and offer a bit of not at all fatherly advice.
Ignore Kohl’s in the distance. That’s out of our price range.
Part 1 of this series earlier in the month laid out some groundwork and provided a few basic examples of the benefits of striving to value fantasy assets more rigorously. Part 2 illustrated some of the differences in player value across different types of league settings, and taught you how to construct that analysis for yourself. In this article, I aim to build on those concepts to show you how to hunt for bargains in the draft.
This series aims to help readers conduct their routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to suggest free agent adds and drops as well as trade candidates and targets. Each entry will highlight a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who have seen their perceived value shift recently. For each player I will offer a “verdict,” an open-ended recommendation on how I would value the player moving forward. Forgive me as these suggestions may sometimes enter the realm of “hot takes.” Most of my dynasty leagues are 14 to 20-team 5×5 roto leagues, but this series aims to be broadly relevant for all keeper and dynasty formats. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings with OOPSY DC (ROS) unless I say otherwise (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C). When referencing an OOPSY Peak WAR projection, I am referencing their up-to-date peak WAR projection assuming a full season of playing time: 600 PA for hitters and 198 innings pitched for arms.
