It’s time to review my bold predictions for 2026. I hoped to get at least three of these correct, but a more important goal was to give readers actionable insights. They are listed in order from least bold to most bold. Read the rest of this entry »
The so-called “back of the baseball card” numbers still matter to us. No matter how many new-fangled metrics are concocted, we can’t keep our eye from straying towards the .300 AVG/30 HR/100 RBI hitter. That’s the ideal. It’s how we were trained to think about players.
In this article series, I’ll point out two two starting pitchers and two hitters who I think could fall victim to a bias away from low volume players, depressing their draft day costs for 2027.
While it’s still too early to tell what their cost will be, I’d argue that given their numbers, paced out to 162 games, make them some of the best players in fantasy, and they’re unlikely to cost what they’re worth.
Last week, I covered Logan Henderson, who was the second-ranked pitcher on a per-162 basis via the Fangraphs Player Rater this season, slotting in right behind Jacob Misiorowski.
This week, I’ll cover Jeremy Peña. The franchise shortstop for the Houston Astros is still just 28 years old and I think he’s quietly been starting to make good on the first impression he made during the 2022 playoffs.
This series aims to help readers conduct routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to discuss a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who may have seen their perceived value shift recently. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C) with OOPSY DC (ROS).
I sat down to write this article at the start of the Cubs-Reds game on a sunny Sunday afternoon. It matched my disposition. Earlier in the day, I’d clinched an enviable first round bye in my home league. But the final game of the day was a game of consequence for a few of my league mates in a less privileged playoff position.
Their two teams were separated by just a game in our head-to-head categories league.
Both were in matchups where Cubs hitters had the chance to make or break their seasons. A run scored by Michael Busch or Nico Hoerner would send a surging Cinderella story packing and let a team that looked to be a shoo-in a few months ago limp into the playoffs. A stolen base by Ian Happ would have had the same effect, but was not really much of a consideration.
This article is going to be most interesting to managers in head-to-head leagues. Adding streaky players that look ready to explode is still valuable for season-long roto and points league managers. But in those weekly matchup leagues, where there are only a handful of weeks left before the playoffs, it really starts to matter.
In this article, I will show you some of this season’s streakiest players, using rolling wOBA and HR totals over six game periods.
The method to my madness was a bit of a back of the napkin calculation, and one I want to refine this offseason to truly identify streaky players over longer samples than three-quarters of a season.
But for now, I have rolling wOBA and HR totals over six game periods for hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this season, which amounted to more than 30,000 such periods. I then took the average rolling wOBA and HR totals for each qualifying hitter and the five best rolling periods, before taking the difference between the peak and average for each.
I’ll show you those tables below, before narrowing in on some of the players off of these lists, and who show up a bit further down, who could make for interesting hot streak adds for the home stretch.
Because at least some of us rostered Brandon Belt in 2018. And those of us who did certainly remember his explosive end of the season. Nine homers in August, nine more in September.
So, who could be season’s Baby Giraffe?
It’s Week 19 of the fantasy baseball season. It’s a sprint now. In redraft leagues, whether it’s a head-to-head or season long format, you want pitchers who are going to pitch, and pitch deep into games.
At the same time, plenty of teams across the majors are winding down their seasons. If a team sold their stars and spare parts, they probably won’t be letting their young arms go deep into starts anymore. And if a team bought, especially if they bought a rental, expect that player to be used.
In this article, I’m going to look at starting pitchers on teams that are in competitive playoff races that I think are either worth trading for or worth adding, focusing on some recently moved arms and other players who could potentially be available in your league. Read the rest of this entry »
This series aims to help readers conduct their routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to discuss a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who may have seen their perceived value shift recently. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C) with OOPSY DC (ROS).
With the end of the season in sight, it’s time to kick season-long strategies out of the driver’s seat. Slow and steady may win the race if you’re a tortoise, but in fantasy baseball, it’s either sprint or switch over to football. And who even likes football?
When I say sprint, I mean sprint while throwing any and all things that could weigh you down over your shoulder. Especially in 12-teamers and shallow leagues, this needs to be the mindset. Small sample size holding you back? There’s only a small sample size left! Things are going to be random. It’s getting wiggy.
Hitters have so many days to frustrate you. Owning Gunnar Henderson this season has been like wading into a pool with a freshly made pizza. Like sure, there’s moments you may enjoy, like the pepperoni-and-pineapple sweet 3-5 game with a bomb. But then your hands get wet, you can barely stand, let alone eat your pizza, and Gunnar is in the midst of a 3-43 stretch. Without a steal.
You get the picture.
But today, I’m going to focus on starting pitchers. Relievers are more volatile, and if you’re chasing saves in Roto, best of luck and look to Hogan Harris, I guess? But starting pitchers are truly the kings of the small sample size, especially when the calendar inevitably flips to August.
We’re through 16 periods of the inaugural Tout Wars Champions league. It uses a H2H format in which teams earn a win for the week if they win more categories than their opponent. Sadly, my season hasn’t exactly gone as hoped. I originally used an extreme and risky draft strategy that saw me dump three categories, and it’s been challenging to succeed with it given that my top two picks have been complete busts (Garrett Crochet and Cal Raleigh), which has resulted in my current 11th place standing. Yuck!
A little over a month ago, I wrote up a handful of hitters that were underperforming their draft cost, were readily available to pick up in most 12-teamers, and why they were primed to break through.
Looking at underlying numbers from this season and comparing them to last season for struggling players can help identify when a player may be on the cusp of coming on strong after a weak stretch.
Kyle Stowers was one such player. Coming back from injury, Stowers scuffled through mid-June, with an OPS below .700 and a K% near 30%. But from June 12 on, when I published the piece, he has slashed .261/.341/.521 with seven homers and 23 RBI. He had been squaring up the ball in the weeks leading up to this breakthrough. But without the results.
Of course, the same process told me to consider Alec Bohm, who is himself rocking on OPS below .700 since I shouted out his hot run at the end of May and into June. I’m no wizard.
But late in the year, hot stretches are incredibly valuable. I’m sure I don’t need to tell you that, but it bears repeating. Whether it be in head-to-head leagues, where a hot stretch in the late summer can lift you over opponents, or in season long roto leagues where you find yourself lagging in homers, the hot stretch is like a hot pastrami. Undeniably savory. Perfect.
Now let’s look at some hitters, focusing on a selection of players rostered at different rates between CBS and Yahoo. Consider these hitters, particularly those in the top tier, options to replace struggling veterans like those that Mike Podhorzer wrote up a few days back. And if you are in a shallower league where these hitters are rostered, consider the art of the deal!
