Archive for Head to Head

Fantasy Baseball Existentialism: Jon’s Addiction

Our own Dave Cameron wrote up the Jon Singleton signing and promotion on Monday. In the article, Cameron referenced Singleton’s battle with drug addiction. Singleton told The Associated Press (via ESPN.com) back in March, “At this point, it’s pretty evident to me that I’m a drug addict.”

So that’s pretty interesting, but plenty of people successfully combat addictions. The Astros aren’t necessarily wrong to give a long-term deal to an admitted drug addict, particularly when the deal has the potential to be extremely team-friendly if Singleton performs up to his reputation as a top prospect. You aren’t wrong for owning Singleton in fantasy or picking him up on the waiver wire now that he’s in the big leagues. If you are an Astros fan, you have reasons for optimism now with Singleton and George Springer joining Jose Altuve, Jason Castro, Dexter Fowler, and Matt Dominguez to form what is starting to look like a competent team after several long years in the abyss.

Where I became startled in reading about Singleton was when the ESPN.com article said:

He isn’t receiving treatment for his addiction, isn’t in a program and doesn’t have someone traveling with him to keep him on track.

Singleton is confident he can avoid further relapses by focusing on his opportunity, keeping better company and avoiding bad situations. He calls his life a work in progress and is focused on not being so hard on himself this season.

I don’t know what the statistics are on relapse avoidance for people in programs as opposed to out, but I can’t imagine the odds are in Singleton’s favor right now. I don’t know how many people reading this have addictions of their own or at least know someone who, like Singleton, is a self-admitted addict of some kind. I do know that human habits are extremely difficult to change, particularly a habit as serious as substance abuse.

I know this because last Sunday I thought to myself, “You know what? You’ve gotten pretty out of shape here. You should stop drinking once again and start exercising. Also, like Singleton, you shouldn’t be hard on yourself anymore!” Good thoughts, no? Then, on Tuesday night, one of my bosses offered to pick up our bar tab at a local watering hole and I thought to myself, “What kind of idiot turns down free drinks?” Sunday’s resolution to hope for change had failed miserably, as Tuesday night ended with a phone call to my attorney to get her to file a lawsuit against the fast food establishment which had me sick in my view of things.

Actually, since the readers here probably aren’t aspiring to be Gonzo journalists with a substance abuse solution to reality like the great Hunter “Pence” Thompson and this aspiring writer, let’s use a different example. Also on Sunday, I thought, “You should eat healthier, too.” And then Monday morning someone upset me at work and next think you know there’s a Chinese restaurant down the street and I’m there for some deep-fried sugary products of some kind that sure taste great but aren’t exactly “good” for you. The point here is that reality is always out there, cold and indifferent, ready to strike down our best intentions and return us to our worst habits.

Singleton might have better will power than I do, and let’s certainly hope so. We’d all hate for his story to end with him out of the game and feeling ill at a fast food restaurant. But perhaps willpower can only get you so far, and as habitual creatures, we need to be re-programmed to change those habits which need changing if we’re to have long-term success.

I seem to bring up Infinite Jest in each of these columns and that’s because I read all of the like 1,110 pages in that book and didn’t even get a trophy or an IQ bump, so I have to keep mentioning the fact that I read the book to feel better about myself and how I spend my time. Also, does any novel capture modern American society better than Infinite Jest? I can’t think of any. The themes of over-consumption, waste, addiction, compulsion, obsession, loneliness, and depression combine to paint a rather eery depiction of our arguably hollow society. On addiction, Wallace writes:

That most Substance-addicted people are also addicted to thinking, meaning they have a compulsive and unhealthy relationship with their own thinking…That 99% of compulsive thinkers’ thinking is about themselves; that 99% of this self-directed thinking consists of imagining and then getting ready for things that are going to happen to them; and then, weirdly, that if they stop to think about it, that 100% of the things they spend 99% of their time and energy imagining and trying to prepare for all the contingencies and consequences of are never good…In short that 99% of the head’s thinking activity consists of trying to scare the everliving [beep] out of itself.

In baseball, “Ninety percent of the game is half-mental.” In life, 100 percent of the game is half-mental or 100-percent mental.

Singleton has clearly been blessed with the physical tools to succeed as a ballplayer. He’s listed at 6’2″ and 255 pounds. He hit .279/.388/.466 during his minor league career after being selected in the 8th round of the 2009 draft. He’s been ranked as a top-100 prospect for four straight seasons, getting to as high as No. 25 on Baseball Prospectus’ list last year. He was a key piece in the trade that brought Hunter Pence over to the Phillies. He blasted a home run in his first game with Houston.

Yet those attributes and accomplishments aren’t all that unique at this level. What stands out about Singleton in comparison to other top prospects who’ve graduated to the show is his admission of drug addiction. Can he control his demons and reach the height of his ceiling, or will his mental activity drag him back down and limit what has the chance to be a great career?

The Astros have already made a bet on Singleton staying clean, and they should know more about him than anyone. Yet when it comes to the human psyche, there’s so much we don’t know, or perhaps it’s just that there’s so much we aren’t willing to admit.

Singleton is still a decent bet for fantasy owners and the executives in Houston. It’s just that in his case, he’s admitted his demons in a public manner, and since the information we have makes it sound as though he’s white-knuckling it, there is more risk associated with him than the typical prospect.


Trevor May: Fastball Command Key To Early-Season Success, Long-Term Potential

Author’s note: I was busy last night and this morning, so this piece was written yesterday afternoon, before May’s start at Charlotte. (Update: May extended his scoreless streak to 30 innings last night, before surrendering three runs in the fifth inning. His final line was 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 9 K)

As of this writing, four weeks have passed since Trevor May last allowed an earned run. The 24-year-old was terrific in May (pun not intended, but entirely unavoidable), posting a 1.47 earned run average in 36.2 innings, including a 26-inning stretch to close the month in which he surrendered just one unearned run.

Through ten starts, May’s ERA sits at a tidy 2.62, with a 3.04 FIP. He’s striking out just under a batter an inning, and his walk rate has dropped for the second consecutive year, which is a very good sign considering that he’s done so while also getting his first taste of Triple-A:

  • 2012 (Double-A) – 4.69 BB/9
  • 2013 (Double-A) – 3.98 BB/9
  • 2014 (Triple-A) – 3.60 BB/9

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RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Third Base

Third base has had some nicks and cuts but has survived fairly intact. Sure, Evan Longoria has takent some time to get going, and David Wright looks like he won’t be that counting stat monster going forward. And Nolan Arenado’s injury has been a disappointment. I’m sure some of you are even upset about the terrible start Mike Moustakas has had.

But, generally, the position looks pretty good still.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 06/05/2014

Episode 125

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss Eddie Butler, the Rockies’ outfield, Jedd Gyorko, Jedd Gyorko, Trevor Rosenthal, Zach Britton and Tommy Hunter, Jonathan Villar, Justin Smoak, SwStr% by pitch along with pitch values, players coming back, a Yankees call-up and Kole Calhoun.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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Will Ditch of Switch Fix Aaron Hicks?

It could. Aaron Hicks has failed to impress in the major leagues, with a .192/.282/.311 slash line in 462 plate appearances, so it might be worth a shot. Hey, the results have been even worse in the 326 times he’s stood in the batter’s box against a right-handed pitcher as a left-handed hitter: .178/.259/.286. The split has been more pronounced in 2014: .149/.284/.209 in 82 plate appearances. His lifetime MLB ISO as a right-handed hitter is 64 points better than its counterpart.

Hicks made the decision on his own and then informed his agent and the organization of it. Standard practice is to discuss such a substantial change with one’s club before one makes it. The Minnesota Twins don’t seem to mind and have been supportive of his choice, both reactions that are more than understandable, at least to me, given my limited knowledge of the dynamic, however.

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MASH Report (6/5/14)

Jedd Gyorko’s struggles at the plate (.162/.213/.270) could be related to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. He says his foot only started bothering him on May 30th, which I don’t buy one bit.

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RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Shortstop

Whoo boy. What a turd of a position.

Sure, in the shallower leagues, you’re okay. There’s about 5-10 shortstops that I want to have and another seven or so that look okay to me. If you waited and picked Dee Gordon (or got him off waivers), congrats. Alexei Ramirez was another great late pick. Jimmy Rollins is resurgent. It looks like a good Alcides Escobar year — not a bad one at least.

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2014 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: June

It’s that time again, updated American League starting pitcher tiers! We’re now far enough into the season where I have to finally take skills changes into serious consideration. Velocity changes are real, as are changes in repertoire and various advanced metrics such as the strike type percentages. While I have sometimes in the past concerned myself with rankings within tiers, I am not doing so anymore. They did begin in descending order of my projected dollar value, but it’s simply not all that helpful to determine whether Tanaka is above or below King Felix at this point. So, consider any pitcher within a tier to be worth within a several buck range of each other.

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Mixed League Waiver Wire: B.J. Upton, Brad Miller

It’s a “dudes who have been dropped in a lot of mixed leagues” edition. These two have disappointed in different ways – one with fairly low expectations, one with optimistic forecasts – but both of their outcomes have been roughly equal in terms of suckitude. The signs, lately, both performance-wise and in terms of team dynamics, have given fantasy owners reasons for cautious optimism going forward, though.

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Rotographs June Consensus Ranks: Second Base

The key word for second base is: close. When it comes to the top three, apparently the rest-of-season projections have changed the order daily over the past three days. Jeff Zimmerman had to call it, at some point, and it was Jose Altuve by the slimmest of margins.

For me, the closest rankings came later.

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