Archive for Head to Head

It was insert cliche here a tale of two seasons for Jason Hammel in 2014: in one, he was the surprise Chicago success story, a guy racking up strikeouts at a high clip while maintaining a sub-3 ERA. In the other, he was the acquired gun who fizzled in Oakland, getting blown apart with a 2-6 record and bloated FIP, a prime culprit in the team’s second-half choke job.

All told, Hammel finished 38th among starting pitchers in Zach Sanders’ end of the season rankings, though surely those fantasy owners who hoped that a move to the (at the time) high-flying A’s and their big ballpark would help Hammel continue his good vibes still harbor some bitterness.

A $20 million contract in hand, Hammel is now on his way back to Chicago, where he’ll look to recapture the success of his first three months of 2014. As far as fantasy owners are concerned, however, he’ll also be looking to prove that his 2015 value is closer to that of his Cubbie tenure than his brief stay in Oakland.
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• Jason Kipnis may not be ready for the season’s start because of finger surgery.

“We are optimistic he’s going to be able to do a lot in Spring Training,” said Quinlan, adding the recovery time is variable. “To give you some idea, we are pretty optimistic he’s going to be able to do fielding and throwing and doing all aspects of baseball activity with the exception of hitting by the start of Spring Training, when he reports to Spring Training.

“As you know, the forces involved in gripping the bat and hitting are a little bit more extensive, so that will be the last thing he starts. We are optimistic he’ll also be on some form of hit-ting progression at the start of Spring Training.”

I don’t know if his value could be any lower after his struggles during the 2014 season and now this injury. It will be interesting to see where he ends up getting valued. I could see it all over the place and will step in if his value drops enough.

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The San Diego Padres have probably created more buzz than any other Major League Baseball team this offseason. New GM A.J. Preller added to his club a few position players who are pretty good in fantasy baseball terms – a couple of them really good, a couple of them who could be (but could also not be). The change in home venue for each doesn’t really affect his projection on offense negatively, either. The new guys all used to play in pretty pitcher-friendly yards.

A cool fantasy baseball thing related to the new guys’ pitcher-friendly yard, Petco Park, is that it has long helped its team to be a sort of fantasy goldmine. When fantasy baseball players search for pitching sleepers and fliers, they usually check San Diego’s roster for youngsters, retreads, and anyone else the Friars might give a shot that year. Petco Park has always had good park factors for hurlers, and the club’s coaching staffs (latest edition led by manager Bud Black and pitching coach Darren Balsley) have good reputations, too.

Now, :-(. The source of the Padres’ newfound buzz will make the cool fantasy baseball thing less cool. Perhaps a lot less.

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Coming into 2014, Ian Kennedy was not exactly in great demand in fantasy, which figures, since for a guy whose major league tenure began in the shadows of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, being underrated is nothing new for him. That’s not to say he wasn’t borderline dreadful 2013, or that he didn’t deserve his 70 ADP among starting pitchers back in March.

But as he’s never approached the highs of his breakout 2011 season, in which he posted a 4.9 WAR and finished fourth in that year’s NL Cy Young balloting, an air of disappointment has clung to Kennedy, despite what’s been, at least overall, a very solid run as a major league starter.

That’s why it was nice to see him bounce back this year with what may have been his best season yet, as he finished 47th among starting pitchers, according to Zach Sanders’ end of the season rankings.
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Episode 184

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

And Jason Collette is back! He and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other players in the news, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks, and other new Padres; Max Fried; Kevin Jepsen, Steven Souza, and other new Rays; Michael Morse, Martin Prado, and other new Marlins; Nathan Eovaldi; and Jesse Hahn. Don’t worry: There’s a cursory mention of Justin Upton.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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I’m the type of guy who likes a good challenge. At least, I must be. Why else would I volunteer myself to write about a 33-year-old reliever who made the transition to the rotation, pitched to a 3.44 earned run average in 32 starts, and then got traded?

Let’s begin by just reflecting on how remarkable Alfredo Simon’s 2014 was. He came into the season more than two years removed from his last start, having spent all of 2012 and 2013 pitching out of the bullpen. Not only had he not started in quite some time, but he was never any good at all as a starter in the first place.

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The Cleveland Indians have brought in Gavin Floyd on a one-year contract. He’s guaranteed $4 million and could make another $6 million in incentives, according to multiple sources of that news. That kind of money basically guarantees the right-hander a spot in the Tribe’s rotation.

Fantasy baseball players’ questions about Floyd for 2015 likely have to do with his health and performance this past season. He seemed to demonstrate some real positives (a 2.65 ERA, 19.7 K%, and 5.7 BB%) with the Atlanta Braves in his 2014 return from Tommy John surgery. A fractured bone in his pitching elbow cut this particular triumph short, however.

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When the Cubs inked Jon Lester, it put a cap—at least until the team acquires another front-line starter—on a series of pitcher moves that will likely underwhelm the majority of Red Sox fans and fantasy players. Among Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson, Porcello is the closest to obvious fantasy relevance. Last season, he led the bunch with a 3.43 ERA and 1.8 walks per nine, but the three wins of real-world value are a more difficult fantasy sell for a pitcher who reached 200 innings pitched but failed to reach 130 strikeouts.

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Episode 183

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other players in the news, Matt Kemp, Melky Cabrera, Dee Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, Rick Porcello, Mat Latos, Andrew Heaney, Jed Lowrie, and Ervin Santana. Eno also segues us into an answer to a listener’s question about the potentially exciting future of Brandon Finnegan.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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Like, not that he’s throwing his curveball with his changeup, at the same time, although that’d be a cool trick (and probably the toughest pitch to hit in baseball). Like, maybe Gio Gonzalez wants to throw his changeup more often, and that has thrown the Washington Nationals, his outcomes, and/or fantasy baseball players for a bit of a loop.

Gonzalez’s overall numbers (a 3.57 ERA, 24.8 K%, 8.6 BB%, and 1.20 WHIP) weren’t too shabby. His ERA was notably worse than his FIP for the first time since 2009, though. You might even look at the career-worst BABIP against him in a season of at least 100 innings (.294) and LOB% (71.0) and say, Oh, that’s just a little bad luck, sign me up next time!

That’ll probably work out, but I hope to find a little more of the why. I’ve started to wonder if Gonzalez didn’t also have a bit of a transition/growth period in 2014 as he began to prepare himself for his 30s. Maybe he’ll be better and a little more dependable.

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