Archive for Head to Head

Julio Teheran followed up his breakout 2013 season with a 2014 campaign that was in many ways superior, increasing his WAR from 2.5 to 3.2 and finishing 14th among starting pitchers, according to Zach Sanders’ end of the season rankings.

I could recite a list of statistics here to emphasize this point, or, for expediency’s sake, present a chart that neatly compares the two seasons head to head:

It’s hard to find fault with that kind of output, especially given that Teheran was listed 34th in Zach’s preseason rankings, and for the former can’t–miss prospect, 2014 seemed a perfect second step on his path toward fantasy excellence.
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When Alex Wood broke into the majors in 2013 as a member of the Braves bullpen, there were more questions than answers regarding his long-term outlook. A fastball/changeup lefty, Wood lacked the third pitch that is so crucial for sustained success in a major-league rotation. He also relied on a funky delivery to generate deception. Whether that delivery remained deceptive after hitters got used to it was one question; whether Wood could stay healthy with his high-effort delivery was another.

Tim Hudson’s mid-season 2013 injury gave Wood a chance to show what he could do as a starter. In his 11 starts, Wood allowed plenty of baserunners (1.45 per inning), but largely mitigated that issue by allowing just 14 extra-base hits in those 11 starts. All told, his work as a starter was largely promising:

• 3.54 ERA, 8.68 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, .273/.340/.366 opponents’ slash

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Many fantasy baseball players don’t readily like or even accept Francisco Liriano. He walks too many guys, a lot of them say, and he’s a major health risk. He’s unreliable and difficult to predict, they probably feel.

All those things are true, but probably not quite to the extent that some rotisserie and head-to-head owners believe them to be. Perhaps even before they had become less true since Liriano joined the Pittsburgh Pirates, but at least after that event. All those things have generally helped to depress his cost, even since that move, as well. That should remain true after a season in which he finished 71^st among starting pitchers in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings for the position and has rejoined the Bucs. That’s a good thing.

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Episode 182

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris (live from MLB’s Winter Meetings) and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other players in the news, Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Jimmy Rollins, Brandon Moss, Jung-Ho Kang, and David Robertson. Eno also touches on his answer to a listener’s question about spin rates.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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Some fantasy baseball players here and there, sort of, in a way, kind of think that already. But they may not be eager to draft Alex Cobb like one, and they shouldn’t need to do so. In terms of performance, there haven’t been too many hurlers better in the last couple of years. He finished 34^th in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings for the position. The right-hander has yet to pitch even 170 innings in a single campaign at any level, however. He likely doesn’t strike the populace as dependable.

There really isn’t a need to make the case that Cobb is good. Fantasy owners know that he’s good. But would they call him an ace? Probably not. For now, then, I’ll call him a pseudo ace.

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This past spring, Jake Odorizzi had an opportunity, but not much in the way of expectations from fantasy baseball players. He hadn’t yet been exceptional at anything. There had existed a decent chance that he would eventually lose his rotation spot. For the first couple of months of the season, he struggled in each outing after his first time through the opposition’s lineup. Rotisserie owners might even consider his 76^th-place finish in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings for starting pitchers a bit of a coup. According to the list, he earned a buck – on the nose. How exciting.

But Odorizzi also did something interesting: strike people out more frequently. He finished with a 4.13 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, but the 174 K’s (24.2 K%) in 168 innings were quite nice. They lowered the right-hander’s FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, naturally, to more eye-catching figures and raised the level of interest of the fantasy population. How great should that interest be in 2015?

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By the time James Paxton left in the sixth inning of his second start of 2014, he had done little in his young career to dampen expectations of him becoming a solid major league starter. After all, between the four starts he made in September 2013 and his first two in April, Paxton had gone 5-0 with a 1.75 ERA, an 8.5 K/9 and flashed an especially encouraging ability to generate ground balls, displaying some of the ingredients that comprise the finest fantasy starters.

Unfortunately, a strain of the left latissimus dorsi muscle curtailed his outing on April 8, causing him to miss nearly four months and finish 102nd among starting pitchers, according to Zach Sanders’ end of the season rankings. But upon returning, Paxton was able to redeem what was left of his season, enough so to make 2014 a step forward for the southpaw and perhaps, at the age of 26, setting him up as a breakout candidate for 2015.

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For me personally, I’m not sure there was a bigger pitching surprise in 2014 than Dallas Keuchel. I saw a handful of Keuchel’s Triple-A starts in 2011 and 2012, and I had a hard time envisioning him carving out any meaningful role on a major-league pitching staff. As a lefty who topped out around 90 mph, Keuchel was also essentially a two-pitch pitcher.

To be fair, they were two pretty good pitches. Keuchel has always had a strong changeup, paired with a two-seamer with very nice dual-plane break. The problem was that his other pitches were basically junk. He threw some sort of slurvey breaking ball that didn’t fool anyone, and rarely found the strike zone. He had a four-seam fastball, but it was extremely flat and virtually lifeless.

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This might be something fantasy baseball players accept. Jon Lester posted a 2.46 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 220 strikeouts in 2014. He finished as the sixth-best starting pitcher, per Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings at the position.

But maybe some rotisserie and head-to-head managers don’t. After all, Lester was the preseason consensus No. 44 SP at RotoGraphs. He outdid his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA by more than half of a run. This past season was awesome. Its awesomeness is distinctly different from the results in his past couple of seasons. He hadn’t been about this awesome since 2009 and 2010 – coupling 220-plus strikeouts with an ERA that was at least 25% better than league average. His numbers have never looked as good as they did this year. His average velocities dropped a tad this past season. There’s room for doubt.

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A 7.25 ERA in a season can do wonders for your sleeper status. Mike Fiers can attest to that. Fiers was limited to just 22.1 major league innings in 2013 after a batted ball struck and broke his arm, but that was enough time for him to allow eight home runs and 18 earned runs. It’s a pretty alarming streak, especially for a former 22nd-round draft pick who tops out just shy of 90 mph. Perhaps that’s why I can’t find Fiers in the top 250 for 2015 on ESPN or anywhere else I look.

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