Ian Kennedy Bounces Back

Coming into 2014, Ian Kennedy was not exactly in great demand in fantasy, which figures, since for a guy whose major league tenure began in the shadows of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, being underrated is nothing new for him. That’s not to say he wasn’t borderline dreadful 2013, or that he didn’t deserve his 70 ADP among starting pitchers back in March.

But as he’s never approached the highs of his breakout 2011 season, in which he posted a 4.9 WAR and finished fourth in that year’s NL Cy Young balloting, an air of disappointment has clung to Kennedy, despite what’s been, at least overall, a very solid run as a major league starter.

That’s why it was nice to see him bounce back this year with what may have been his best season yet, as he finished 47th among starting pitchers, according to Zach Sanders’ end of the season rankings.

I say “may have,” because for Kennedy, who went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA in 2011, it’s a pretty high bar. But consider the following:

• Kennedy wasn’t nearly as lucky stranding runners this year, as the 74% rate he posted was far more reasonable than the unsustainable 79.2% mark he had in 2011;

• Kennedy dealt with a .315 BABIP in 2014, 32 points above what was his career norm entering the season despite a batted ball profile that was in line with past years;

• Kennedy was able to beat a 3.22 FIP and 3.50 xFIP en route to finishing with a 2.88 ERA in 2011, but despite nearly identical peripherals this season, ended with a far less thrilling 3.63 ERA;

• Kennedy easily posted the best strikeout rate of his career, besting what was a 20.6% rate entering this season with a 24.5% showing in 2014.

Let’s start with those punchouts, because anyone who zaps hitters at a better than strikeout-per-inning clip immediately draws attention in fantasy. Before the season began, Kennedy worked on his delivery to better get on top of the ball, raising the vertical release point of his fastball. Those changes contributed to him posting an increased average fastball velocity for the second season in a row, to the point where his 91.8 mph heater was more than two and a half miles faster than it was in 2012.

Meanwhile, Kennedy relied more heavily on his curveball, throwing it more often to both left- and right-handed hitters and generating the most vertical movement on it in his five seasons as a starter:

kennedy-vertical-curve

Not surprisingly, Kennedy turned to that pitch more often than in any season since 2010, which allowed him to use his changeup and its 19.8% whiff rate more sparingly. His overall 10% SwStr% leaves plenty of doubt as to whether he can maintain the strikeouts, but the velocity hike is real, and as his K/9 has improved for four straight seasons, Steamer’s 8.7 K/9 projection for 2015 doesn’t seem unobtainable.

It goes without saying that Petco Park benefits pitchers, though at the same time, being a Padre hurler in recent years has also meant suffering from low run support. For Kennedy, who finished with a 13-13 record, the average 3.33 runs per game his team scored for him this year was seventh lowest among qualified starters, but an outfield that produced the third-lowest wOBA in the majors this year has been transformed with the offseason additions of Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers. Just how brutal that trio will be defensively remains to be seen, though for what it’s worth, Kennedy was still able to have a fine season this year despite having an outfield behind him that wasn’t all that spectacular, either, and besides, it would be presumptuous at this point in mid-December to assume general manager A.J. Preller is finished remodeling his team.

Regardless of his supporting cast, however, the 30-year-old Kennedy has established himself as one of the majors’ most durable starters in recent years; he’s one of just 17 hurlers to post more than 1,000 innings since 2010, during which he’s averaged 32 starts and 201 innings a year. In that period, he’s compiled a 3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9, numbers that, while not flashy, offer help across the board to owners and certainly don’t hurt in any particular category.

More importantly, however, they prove that even if Kennedy isn’t quite as good as some of his 2011 campaign’s shinier numbers, he’s more consistent than many people give him credit for, and being able to deliver across-the-board production in fantasy — at a discounted price, no less — certainly has value. Even if Kennedy doesn’t crack the top 40 starting pitchers next year, his reliability gives him significant value and makes him a prime candidate to outperform his price on draft day.





Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries.

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Cool Lester Smooth
9 years ago

I love him.

Mrs. Ian Kennedy
9 years ago

I don’t care; you’re not marrying him.

Cool Lester Smooth
9 years ago

A) Fuck off.

B) Kennedy is basically Phil Hughes, so he should be fine now that he has Petco suppressing his HR/FB%. I’d rather have him in Petco with Upton/Myers/Kemp than a neutral park with a good OF defense, honestly.