Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 20 First Basemen for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.

Since a majority of Ottoneu leagues are points leagues (offense based on linear weights), you’ll notice speed is less of a factor here than Paul’s rotisserie ranking lists.  Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, this list might be a good proxy for OBP, OPS, or sabermetric leagues, so keep that context in mind as you review.  If I’ve missed an important player, or you believe I’ve wildly over or under-valued someone, please let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to update.

In 2019, the 29 qualified first basemen averaged the following production:

• 5.88 Points Per Game (P/G)
• 30 HR
• 10% BB%
• 22% K%
• .227 ISO
• .268 AVG
• .353 OBP
• .495 SLG
• .354 wOBA
• 120 wRC+

Read the rest of this entry »

9/30/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host

POSITIONAL POST MORTEMS

Razzball Player Rater (type C or 1B into the POS field after it loads)

•  CATCHER
  • Kurt Suzuki (3:40)
  • The Studs – J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sánchez, Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras, Wilson Ramos (4:24)
  • Mitch Garver (5:40)
  • Christian Vazquez (7:15)
  • James McCann (9:44)
  • Omar Narváez (11:40)
  • Travis d’Arnaud (14:58)
  • Jorge Alfaro (19:43)
  • Roberto Pérez (24:10)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

First base looked a bit thin during draft season and despite the emergence of some guys, I don’t think much changed. There is a thick middle tier that gives a perception of depth, but 1B is often deep in premium talent so this is definitely a new landscape. If you don’t one of the top 10 or so, you’re probably better off waiting as the difference between the 11th and 20th guy isn’t that stark.

One factor regarding this relative dearth of elites is that some multi-positional guys that would’ve never been considered at 1B with positions like 2B, 3B, or OF on their card are now looking better at this position. Except catcher. I’m still not even ranking guys like Yasmani Grandal at 1B because it just doesn’t make any sense to use him anywhere but C.

Let’s get into the list. I went 30 deep and then listed a bunch of honorable mentions. Let me know if I forgot anyone or if you think someone belongs much higher or much lower than where I have them right now.

Read the rest of this entry »

Jake Bauers entered the 2019 season a kind of wide-awake sleeper to many fantasy analysts looking to target cheap value at first base or in the outfield. Per National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) data, Bauers was drafted, on average, 230th overall, 24th among first basemen, and 66th among outfielders — effectively your last corner infielder or outfielder, or your first bench bat. You weren’t depending on him too gravely for production; the cost to acquire Bauers was typically low, making any sunk costs a bit easier to swallow.

Still, it has been disappointing to see Bauers follow up 2018’s 11-homer, 6-steal half-season with mediocrity. Yes, his rookie campaign featured a miserable .201/.316/.384 line, but it was marred by a meager .252 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a 26.8% strikeout rate (K%) that seemed far out of whack relative to his roughly league-average 11.0% swinging strike rate (SwStr%). It stood to reason, at first glance, Bauers would cash in on some positive regression to post a fairly solid slash line while posting double-digit home runs and stolen bases — and it didn’t seem altogether far-fetched to hope so.

Ultimately, it never came to fruition. In almost an identical number of plate appearances, Bauers replicated his home run tally but with a lower isolated power (.146 ISO to .183 ISO), a feeble stolen base rate (two steals on five attempts, versus six on 12 last year), and worse plate discipline despite a better whiff rate. Cleveland had enough and eventually optioned Bauers with his career line standing at 22 homers, eight steals, and a .218/.312/.381 line in 771 plate appearances.

Read the rest of this entry »

Less than a month ago, the Blue Jays traded their primary designated hitter, Kendrys Morales, to the Oakland Athletics. While somewhat surprising given the money owed to Morales, the Jays willingness to retain salary and Oakland’s need to replace the injured Matt Olson facilitated a trade that was completed less than twenty-four hours before Opening Day in Toronto.

While the trade was initially made with an eye towards roster flexibility, it looks as though one big man may be in the process of replacing another in Toronto. After beginning his major league career in September of 2018 with a world-beating hot streak, Rowdy Tellez is picking up where he left off in some potentially important respects. Read the rest of this entry »

First base enters 2019 at an interesting crossroads. It’s a bit thin at the top in terms of bankable, premium talent, but there’s also a path to it re-taking its perch as one of the deepest positions in the game. It will add the likes of Rhys Hoskins, Daniel Murphy, and Jake Lamb early into the season (the former pair being top 10ers right off the bat once they qualify). Here’s a piece I did with more thoughts on those 1B-to-be. There’s a group of pivotal guys like Max Muncy, Matt Olson, and Jesus Aguilar who could really flip the position at the top while guys like Ryan O’Hearn, Jake Bauers, and Luke Voit are on-the-rise bats who intrigue me.

Podcasts on 1B: Pt. 1; Pt. 2

• What’s your strategy at 1B in shallower mixed leagues (10-12 teams)?
• What about 15-team NFBC-type leagues?
• Who’s your favorite gamble outside of my top 20?

Read the rest of this entry »

2/12/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

GET THE GLOB T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable News

• PITCHERS & CATCHERS HAVE REPORTED!!!!!!!!!!
• Francisco Lindor injury (9:40)
• Kyler Murray peaces out to football (22:40)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

2/7/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable News

• Brad Boxberger to KC (17:15)
• J.T. Realmuto to PHI??? (21:30)
• J.T. Realmuto to PHI!!! (7:05) – not a mislabeled time code, just listen!

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Earlier this week I explored the catching position for some potential speed contributions as the concentration of SB standings makes it so the extra 4-5 could really make a difference. First base is the other position where SBs are often secondary or even tertiary to the target contributions of power production. Let’s take a deeper look at the position to see where we might find some SBs.

The Known Contributors (sorted by Sprint Speed)

Obviously, we know some of the top end guys can help here while also delivering game-changing power. That’s why they go so early in drafts, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention them:

Cody Bellinger | LAD, 28.9 ft/sec – Belly’s speed is why he has no problem fitting into center field for the Dodgers. He swiped 14 bases last season in 15 attempts and he’s 24-for-28 across his career (86%). He had a predictable sophomore “slump”, but still put up a 120 wRC+ with 25 HR and those aforementioned 14 SBs… a “slump” anyone would gladly take.

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, I did a breakdown of 1B using the NFBC ADP data. I grouped them according to the draft slots and gave some thoughts on who I liked and disliked at their current costs. Since I was using the NFBC draft data, it was only listing those who are currently qualified by the standard 20-game threshold (the industry standard and also what most sites use, while Yahoo! is most lenient at just 5 games).

I was so zeroed in on the group of NFBC-eligible first basemen that I didn’t even think about a very worthwhile group of players: those certain or very likely to gain 1B eligibility early enough in the season that you can draft them with the intention of being your primary option at the position and those who fell below 20 games, but still had enough to qualify at sites using a 5- or 10-game qualifier.

Read the rest of this entry »