Archive for First Base

Looking at our evaluation of the tiers at the first base position, two things come to mind pretty quickly. If the final mixed-league tier includes players as interesting as Billy Butler (86.14 ADP) and Derrek Lee (85.56), you know the position is deep. The second thing you might notice is that once you factor in average draft position, there aren’t many values in this position. Four first basemen go in the first round (Albert Pujols (1.11), Mark Teixeira (7.31), Prince Fielder (8.13) and Miguel Cabrera (10.20)), and it’s hard to call a first-rounder a ‘value.’

But go down into the meaty portion of the position – the middle tier – and you may uncover a nice sleeper. Lance Berkman (59.89) has to be considered one of the more valuable players available in the fourth and fifth rounds. I know he’s coming off a bad year, but let’s play around with his stats in a less-than-scientific way, why don’t we? Look at Berkman’s batting average and BABIP since 2002. It’s sort of remarkable:

Don’t know about you, but by the theory of Alternating BABIPs in Berkman’s Career, I think it’s a stone-cold-lead-pipe lock that Berkman puts up a BABIP well over .300 and therefore a batting average over .300 (talk about some serious P-value on that ‘research’). Also, Berkman missed time and if you pro-rate out his home run total, you get the Steady Eddie 30 home runs that you can usually expect of the Astros’ first-sacker. I’d rather have Berkman in the late fourth or early fifth than Justin Morneau (38.78) in the late third or early fourth, for example. They are very similar first basemen.

In the all-power no-batting average mini-tier, there’s a surprising result. it looks like Carlos Pena (76.35) is the new Adam Dunn (55.95). It used to be that the bad batting average pulled Dunn down too far, making him under-rated and a value pick. Now that he’s a fifth-rounder, though, that might not be the case any longer. Why not just wait and get the other Dunn two rounds later? (That which we call a Dunn by any other name would swing as big.) Maybe Penas’ peaks and valleys in batting average and ISO power have been more extreme than Dunn, but that can cut both ways. Pena could easily outperform Dunn this coming year, for example.

The late-round values litter the fantasy landscape like brown crusty snow days after a blizzard (I’m not bitter, I promise). Adam LaRoche (201.68) represents the safest option, but he probably also tastes like un-marinated tofu. If .275 and 25 home runs is all you need out of your first baseman, go ahead and pick him late. But if you want tofu, why not take Paul Konerko (211.73) the next round? Sure, his ISO and walk rates are trending downwards, but his contact rates are steady, and even in a reduced form he mostly features better power than Laroche. If you want a little upside, Chris Davis (159.89) has power (.230 career ISO), that much we know. If he can pull that strikeout rate back down to the high twenties (he had a 24% k-rate in the minors), and push that walk rate up (8% in the minors), maybe he’ll make Bill James proud. (And I bet he tastes like a big old Texas T-Bone.)

According to MockDraftCentral’s latest 5X5 Average Draft Position rankings, two National League first baseman sit back-to-back at spots 30 and 31. Both lefty batters are fresh off monstrous 2009 seasons, with one posting the third-best wOBA in the majors at first base, and the other ranking sixth at the position.

Cincinnati’s Joey Votto and San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez seem to be valued about equally by fantasy players. Which one is the better bet headed into 2010?

Votto, 26, followed up a quality rookie season in 2008 (.373 wOBA) with a scorching sophomore campaign, trailing only a pair of Princes (Albert and Fielder) in wOBA with a .418 mark. Cincy’s second-round pick in the 2002 draft boosted his walk rate (from 10 percent to 12.9 percent) and his Isolated Power (.209 to .245), bashing all pitch types in the process.

While Votto is well-established as a premium offensive player, he will likely regress somewhat next year: his BABIP was .372. That number figures to fall back to the .340-.350 range, according to projection systems:

Votto’s projected 2010 BABIP

CHONE: .342
Bill James: .344
Marcel: .347
The Fans: .350

That would make Votto more of a .300-type hitter, as opposed to the .320+ guy we saw last season. A less extreme BABIP would result in a still-excellent wOBA in the .390’s (with the Bill James system forecasting a higher mark):

Votto’s projected 2010 wOBA

Marcel: .390
CHONE: .392
The Fans: .400
Bill James: .407

Gonzalez, meanwhile, mashed to the tune of a .402 wOBA in 2009. His walk rate and ISO improved each season from 2006-2008, but they skyrocketed this past year:

The 27 year-old drew ball four in 17.5 percent of his plate appearances last season (career 11 BB%), with a .274 ISO (career .225 ISO).

Of course, the pink elephant in the room when comparing Votto and Gonzalez is environment. Votto takes his cuts at Great American Ballpark (three-year park factor of 105 according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, with a HR park factor of 125). Gonzalez must confront Petco Park, which ravages offensive performance (three-year park factor of 76, with a HR park factor of 73).

Enter wRC+. The stat takes a hitter’s wOBA and adjusts it based on park and league factors, setting it on a scale where 100 is average and above 100 is above-average. On a context-neutral basis, Gonzalez edged out Votto in 2008. This past year, they were essentially equals:

2008
Votto: 126 wRC+
Gonzalez:135 wRC+

2009
Votto: 157 wRC+
Gonzalez: 158 wRC+

While wRC+ is a very useful metric in evaluating players in a context-neutral manner, we do have to give Votto some additional fantasy points and dock Gonzalez because of the drastic difference in home venues. Here are Gonzalez’s 2010 projected wOBAs:

Marcel: .376
CHONE: .383
Bill James: .383
The Fans: .395

Though Votto’s lofty BABIP and Gonzalez’s massive spikes in walk rate and ISO portend to some regression to the mean, both figure to be excellent first base options again next season. You can’t go wrong either way. But if I had a choice between the two, I would select Votto on the basis of his friendlier confines.

What do you think? Who’s the better option, Votto or Gonzalez?

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, free agent first baseman Russell Branyan has inked a one-year, $2 million contract with the Cleveland Indians, which includes $1 million in performance incentives. The pact also has a $5 million mutual option for 2011.

Long a stat-head favorite for his prodigious power, keen eye and lack of playing time, Branyan comes full-circle by returning to the team that originally drafted him back in 1994. The 34 year-old has a career 114 wRC+, with a twelve percent walk rate and a .257 Isolated Power. But because he does something aesthetically displeasing (strike out) a ton, and has some issues with lefties (though he’s not terrible against them), Branyan has been traded five times and released twice. He’s been to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Seattle. He’s been everywhere, man.

Prior to the 2009 season, the lefty thumper signed a modest one-year contract with the Mariners. He cracked the 500 plate appearance mark for the first time in his career, batting .251/.347/.520 with 31 bombs and a 129 wRC+. Unfortunately, a herniated disk in his lower back ended his season in late August.

CHONE projects Branyan to hit .243/.335/.497 next year, with a 121 wRC+. Just how he fits into Cleveland’s plans remains to be seen, however. Branyan has experience playing all of the corner spots on the field, but he hasn’t played third base since 2008 and hasn’t roamed the outfield since 2007. Given the back ailment, he’s almost surely a first baseman only, while spotting for Travis Hafner at DH from time to time.

That opens up a couple of questions. Namely, what does Branyan’s signing meaning for Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley?

LaPorta (projected by CHONE for a 112 wRC+) has a big bat, but also has limited range and underwent hip and toe surgeries during the off-season. The Branyan deal could mean that LaPorta isn’t fully mended. Or, it could indicate that the Indians are still giving consideration to having LaPorta patrol left field next season (his Total Zone numbers in the minors suggest he’d be a liability). In that case, Brantley (projected 98 wRC+, with 26 SB) would have an uncertain role with the club.

There are many moving parts here. Pay close attention to Cleveland’s plans for Branyan, LaPorta and Brantley leading up to draft day. Given Hafner’s shoulder and Branyan’s back, there could be enough playing time for all of these guys to remain fantasy relevant.

Reader G. Azama submitted this question to me directly, but it’s a mailbag question nonetheless:

I’m in a 14 Team mixed keeper league. We get to keep any 7 players and as far as I know, there’s no limitation on how many years we get to keep the players.

Positions are C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,CI,MI, 5 OF, bunch of pitchers and long bench.

Stats are the basic 5×5 plus OPS and Holds. Because of the holds, Closers are hard to come by, in fact very hard to come by if you don’t draft them.

I had a pretty good team and got nip at the end and came in second. My potential keepers are Chase Utley, Tim Lincecum, Joey Votto, Kung-Fu Panda, Kendry Morales, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier, Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels.

Straight up keepers. Draft position from last year is not a factor.the draft will be done in the reverse order of the finish in every round. In other words, I will be drafting thirteenth on every round, since I came in second last year.

I’ve been banging my head against the wall trying to figure out what makes sense. As you can see I’ve got quite a few good young players! Hard decision. I think the top 4 are keepers for sure. It’s after that that I have a hard time deciding.

I completely agree that Timmy, Utley, Votto and Pablo Sandoval are instant keepers in this case. I also think that you need to keep Broxton to at least have one closer on your roster. That leaves us with Kendry, Ethier, Hanson and Hamels to fill two spots.

Kendry provided owners with more power than they could have ever hoped for, with a fantastic average to boot. For the most part, his 34 homers came out of no where, but he did have a brief history of power in Triple-A during the 2008 season, hitting 15 homers in 340 plate appearances. However, a .335 BABIP is likely to drop bringing his average down below the .300 mark. Also, Kendry doesn’t draw many walks so his value drops in OBP leagues, but an OPS league keeps his value high.

Ethier’s power last year was also a pleasant surprise, but his .272 average was a disappointment. He isn’t likely to hit 31 homers again, but 25 homers is not out of the question. Unlike Kendry, Ethier draws a walk and can keep his OPS high even when he is in a “slump”. His average should rise back to around .285, and a solid lineup around him means good production all around.

David Golebiewski already did quite the workup on Hanson in December, so I’m not going to step on his work and repeat what he said. Cole Hamels had a career year in 2008, and then posted career worst fantasy numbers in 2009. However, his FIP was exactly the same in both years, coming in at 3.72. Will the real Cole Hamels please stand up? 2010 is likely to be an average of 2008 and 2009, with his ERA coming in around 3.70 with good wins, strikeouts and WHIP.

I really like Kendry, but with Votto and Kung-Fu Panda already on the roster he is expendable. In a league with five outfielders, I’m keeping Either, that much I’m sure about. Now we are down to Hanson and Hamels for one last spot. Because there is no limit on how long you can keep players, I’m keeping Hanson.

To recap, I’m keeping Timmy, Utley, Votto, Panda, Broxton, Ethier and Hanson.

Have a question for the mailbag? Send it to rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com.

San Francisco Giants signed RHP Todd Wellemeyer to a minor league contract.

Wellemeyer gets a non-roster invitation to spring training, where he’ll try to crack San Francisco’s pitching staff as a long reliever. Chris Haft’s MLB.com article quotes Giants VP of baseball operations Bobby Evans as saying, “we’re looking at him right now more as a long man.” Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Zito fill the 1-4 spots in the rotation, and Madison Bumgarner, Joe Martinez and Kevin Pucetas are expected to compete for the fifth spot.

A former Cub, Marlin, Royal and Cardinal, Wellemeyer was a wild man in major league stints from 2003-2007. He appeared to turn a corner in 2008 with St. Louis, with 6.29 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 and a 4.49 xFIP in 191.2 innings pitched. A low BABIP (.273) and a high rate of stranding runners on base (76.9%) suggested that Wellemeyer wouldn’t replicate his 3.71 ERA, but he entered 2009 with a steady big league job for the first time in his career.

Unfortunately, Wellemeyer was walloped. He was placed on the DL in August with right elbow inflammation, but the injury appeared to diminish his stuff for most of the season. In 122.1 IP, Wellemeyer whiffed 5.74 batters per nine innings, with his walk rate rising to 4.19 per nine frames. His xFIP was 5.21.

The 31 year-old’s average fastball velocity dipped from 92.3 MPH in 2008 to 91.5 MPH in ’09. That heater wasn’t especially effective in ’08 (-0.56 runs per 100 pitches thrown), but it was even worse this past season (-0.96 runs/100). Despite a one MPH dip in velocity, Wellemeyer’s slider remained sharp (+1.63 in ’08, +1.5 in ’09). His changeup was battered, though: -4.52 runs/100 pitches in 2009, compared to +1.25 the previous year. Wellemeyer’s contact rate increased from a league average 80.3% in ’08 to 82.8% in ’09, with his swinging strike rate declining from 9.2% in 2008 to 7.6% in 2009 (7.8 percent MLB average for starters).

Wellemeyer’s fantasy value is negligible at this point. He has one year of average pitching on his resume, surrounded by years of getting drubbed and a troubling history of elbow ailments. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, Wellemeyer missed a month and a half with an elbow sprain in 2007, and missed some time in 2008 with elbow inflammation as well.

New York Mets signed 1B Mike Jacobs to a minor league contract.

Jacobs, 29, will try to work his way into New York’s first base mix, which includes Fernando “two grannies in one inning” Tatis and Daniel “please don’t play me in left field” Murphy.

A former Mets farmhand shipped to Florida in the November 2005 Carlos Delgado deal, Jacobs is basically a fantasy landmine. Sure, he has power, and if you’re not careful, he’s the sort of player that can lull you into thinking he’s a decent option.

Following an abysmal season spent in Kansas City, the lefty batter has a career .335 wOBA. And, he has a 32 homer, 93 RBI campaign to his name, too. That sounds OK, right? Not for the position that he plays. The average first baseman posted a .350 wOBA in 2009, a level which Jacobs has never come particularly close to during his big league tenure.

He doesn’t control the strike zone, and as Jacobs’ splits page shows, lefties make him jelly-legged (career .281 wOBA in 449 plate appearances). Even if we regress that mark against southpaws toward the mean, Jacobs’ projected wOBA against left-handers is about .293, compared to .334 versus righties. In other words, he’s terrible against same-handed pitching, and a slightly above-average MLB hitter against right-handers. That doesn’t cut it at first base.

Seattle Mariners signed 1B/DH Ryan Garko to a one-year, $550,000 contract with $525,000 in possible incentives.

Garko, 29, was non-tendered by the Giants earlier this off-season. So, to recap, San Francisco jettisons Garko (whom they acquired from Cleveland last summer for lefty pitching prospect Scott Barnes) to sign a more expensive, likely inferior first baseman in Aubrey Huff. Huh?

While Garko’s pact with the M’s is a one-year deal, the club retains his rights through the 2012 season, as he’s arbitration-eligible in 2011 and ’12 as well.

The righty batter has a career .279/.351/.441 triple-slash, with a 113 wRC+ and a .162 Isolated Power figure. In a 2009 season split between the Indians and Giants, Garko had a 107 wRC+.

Garko is presumably being brought in to thump lefty pitching, getting some time at first base in place of Casey Kotchman and at DH when either Milton Bradley or Griffey Jr.’s ghost aren’t occupying the spot.

Here are Garko’s splits during the course of his big league career, viewed through the scope of sOPS+. The Baseball-Reference stat compares a hitter’s performance in a given split to the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything above 100 is above-average for batters.

Garko’s splits, 2006-2009

Sure, Garko has been better vs. southpaws, but it’s not as though he’s totally helpless against same-side pitching.

Of course, first base and DH types are supposed to mash, not merely hold their own: the offensive bar at those spots is extremely high. By comparison, Garko comes up a bit short as an everyday option. CHONE projects a .268/.343/.438 line in 2010, with a 110 wRC+.

For reference, the overall MLB line at first base last year was .277/.362/.483, while the overall DH triple-slash was .264/.347/.447. Also, keep in mind that hitters may lose some effectiveness while DHing. In The Book, Tom Tango found that batters perform about 4-5 runs worse per 600 PA at DH, compared to when they play a position on the field.

Garko doesn’t figure to hold significant fantasy value, given his part-time status and good, not great bat at the low end of the defensive spectrum.

If there is one thing that fantasy owners like, it is consistency. One of the most consistent players in recent seasons is Adam LaRoche, who just signed a free agent deal with the Diamondbacks. Now that we know where LaRoche will play this season, let’s look at what he is likely to produce. Here are his fantasy stats for the past three seasons:

2007: .272-21-88-71-1
2008: .270-25-85-66-1
2009: .277-25-83-78-2

Of course, fantasy owners know LaRoche for something else, too. He is one of the players who has consistently performed better in the second half of the season compared to the first half. LaRoche has been in the league for six seasons and in five of those he has posted a higher OPS after the All-Star break, including four years where the difference was over 200 points. Here are his lifetime splits by halves:

First Half: .252/.326/.447 in 1785 PA
Second H: .300/.363/.546 in 1445 PA

Over at The Book Blog, MGL and TangoTiger have done a bunch of work on splits, specifically on halves. MGL said, “Using the ‘same weight’ method, I got an ‘r’ of -.004 (again, 6427 player seasons).

Using the second method, weighting by PA, I got an ‘r’ of .001.

Sorry guys, I see no evidence of these splits having any meaning whatsoever. None.”

MGL went on to offer a $100 donation to charity if anyone could find a predictive value to splits (aside from a few with previously documented small predictive values). Nearly 15 months later, nobody has posted any research looking for a reward.

But, what works for the aggregate does not necessarily work for the individual, as we see here in the extreme case of LaRoche. The question becomes, should we weight LaRoche differently given his track record?

Perhaps more importantly, are fantasy owners valuing LaRoche correctly, given his overall performance the past three years? Currently, he has an ADP of 255, making him on average a pick early in the 22nd round.

If LaRoche can duplicate what he has done recently, he will be a steal at that pick. And now he gets to call Chase Field home. After spending most of his career in Atlanta, where Turner Field has a multi-year park factor of 98, LaRoche will play half of his games in a good hitter’s park. Baseball-Reference.com gives Chase Field a multi-year park factor of 109. In his brief playing time so far in Arizona, LaRoche has a .661 OPS in 43 PA.

Perhaps those at-bats came early in the season.

Giants signed 1B Aubrey Huff to a one-year, $3M contract.

Huff’s signing likely sets off a chain reaction: Pablo Sandoval will remain at third base, with Mark DeRosa manning left field.

While it’s questionable if he actually constitutes an upgrade over San Francisco’s in-house options, Huff will play first base for the Giants. You’ll hear Huff called a four-corners player in some circles. However, a look at his UZR totals shows that his glove is a clunker at every spot. That helps explain why Huff only DH’d and played first in 2009.

The 33 year-old posted wRC+ totals of 111 in 2006 and 104 in 2007, before exploding for a 139 wRC+ in 2008. Huff’s power production spiked, before tailing off considerably in 2009:

Huff has hit fly balls 36-37 percent of the time during his career, while grounding out about 45 percent. In ’08, he had a 41.7% fly ball rate and a 40.9 GB%. His ISO shot up to a career-high .247.

Now, a 32 year-old turning in a career year would be expected to decline the following season. But Huff turned in his worst campaign since 2001, posting a 79 wRC+ between the Orioles and the Tigers. His ISO plunged to .144, as he hit fly balls 36.4 percent and grounded out 48.1 percent. That was the highest ground ball rate among first basemen. When you might lose a foot race to a Molina brother (2.3 Speed Score in 2009), chopping the ball into the dirt so often is career suicide.

While Huff should bounce back somewhat next season, his bat is rather bland for the first base position. CHONE forecasts a .263/.327/.438 line in 2010, with a 103 wRC+. Bill James throws out a slightly sunnier projection: .267/.334/.445 (107 wRC+). It doesn’t help Huff’s value that his new home ball park saps lefty slugging. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, AT&T Park decreased left-handed HR production 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. AT&T has played like a slight hitter’s park, however (103 park factor), as doubles and triples production is boosted.

Huff isn’t the sort of player you should target. The upside is average production for the position, while the downside is he’s done as a serviceable starter. There’s not much incentive in that proposition.

At 6-foot-6 and 285 pounds, Kyle Blanks looks like he would be more comfortable protecting Philip Rivers’ blind side than patrolling the outfield at Petco Park.

The right-handed hitting behemoth has a bat that’s big league ready, but his future position in San Diego depends upon whether Adrian Gonzalez (owed just $4.75 million in 2010, with a “duuuh” $5.5M option for 2011) remains Padres property. Blanks appeared in the outfield in just two rookie ball games prior to 2009. But he saw time in the outfield corners this past year in an effort to get his lumber in the same lineup as Gonzalez.

A 42nd round pick in the 2004 draft, Blanks was a draft-and-follow selection who eventually inked for $260,000. Scouts got few looks at him during his prep career in New Mexico, but the Padres were impressed with his work at Yavapai Junior College in Arizona.

Blanks wasted no time in showcasing his intriguing blend of patience, power and contact ability. In 200 plate appearances in the rookie level Arizona League in 2005, he hit .299/.420/.500. Baseball America said that Blanks had the best power in the organization, but also cautioned that “his approach at the plate is single minded-every swing is designed to hit the ball a mile.”

In 2006, Blanks batted .292/.382/.455 in 359 PA in the Low-A Midwest League. He drew a walk in 10 percent of his plate appearances, while punching out 22 percent of the time. Unfortunately, a leg infection ended his season in July. During the lay-off, Blanks ballooned to nearly 300 pounds. Baseball America dropped him from the 15th-best prospect in the Padres’ system to 29th, claiming that he needed “a big power year in high Class-A to re-establish himself as a prospect.”

Blanks did indeed turn in a big power year in 2007, with a 24 home runs and a .301/.380/.540 line in the High-A California League. Taking 531 trips to the plate, he walked 8.3 percent and improved his K rate to 18.5 percent. Blanks’ ISO soared from .163 in ’06 to .239 in ’07.

The Cal League’s Southern Division does feature some of the best hitter’s parks in the minors, but Lake Elsinore didn’t inflate offense. BA bumped Blanks up to 10th in the Padres’ system, ascribing some of that extra power to “adding a stride” to his swing “instead of just turning and rotating.”

Spending the 2008 season in the Double-A Texas League, Blanks bashed to the tune of .325/.404/.514 in 565 PA. A near-.370 BABIP helps to explain the batting average spike, but Blanks maintained most of his pop (.189 ISO) while taking ball four 9.4% and punching out 18.3%.

Having proved himself at the upper levels, Blanks jumped up to number one on San Diego’s prospect list prior to the 2009 season. He had slimmed down to 280 bills, and BA liked that fact that he “exhibit[ed] strong bat control instead of always selling out for power.” However, they also noted that such an approach cut into his ability to drive the ball at times. Blanks had a “tendency to hit with dead hands” because there’s “minimal load to his swing.”

At Triple-A Portland in 2009, Blanks hit .283/.393/.485 in 280 PA. His whiff rate climbed in the Pacific Coast League (27 percent), but Blanks’ secondary skills shined (14.3 BB%, .202 ISO).

He hit the ground running in San Diego as well, with a .250/.355/.514 line and a 138 wRC+ in 172 plate appearances. It’s unwise to infer too much from such a small sample, but Blanks hit 10 homers with a .264 ISO. He drew a walk 10.8 percent of the time, though he punched out 37.2 percent. Unfortunately, a right foot injury in late August ended his season early.

So, what should we expect from the 23 year-old Blanks in 2010? He’s currently penciled in as San Diego’s starting right fielder. Petco will do its best to sabotage his offense, as the park has depressed run scoring by 24 percent and homers by 27 percent compared to a neutral venue from 2007-2009. Even so, CHONE (which takes park effects into account) projects a .265/.353/.459 line next season, with a 119 wRC+.

It’s frustrating that Blanks will reside in such power and run-sapping environs, but he has the offensive skills to merit fantasy interest regardless. The only question is what position he’ll play.

While it’s not yet official, a trade sending 1B Casey Kotchman to the Mariners for utility man Bill Hall is expected to be announced soon. All of the details aren’t in: Boston could also receive a prospect and some cash in the transaction. For now, let’s focus on how the deal impacts Kotchman for the 2010 season.

Twenty-seven in February, Kotchman has devolved from a prized talent in the Angels’ farm system to a singles-hitter at a position where power rules the day.

The 13th overall pick in the 2001 draft displayed exceptional strike zone control in the minors, walking in 10.7 percent of his plate appearances and whiffing just 9.1 percent while posting a .324/.406/.492 triple-slash.

Kotchman’s power potential was subject to much debate, however. Baseball America was hopeful: in its 2005 Prospect Handbook, BA predicted that the lefty batter with a silky-smooth swing would “hit at least 20-25 homers annually once he learn[ed] to lift the ball.” That pop didn’t manifest in the minors, though, with Kotchman’s season-best HR total topping out at ten and his career ISO on the farm standing at .168.

After cups of coffee with the Angels in 2004 and 2005 (a combined 91 wRC+ in 271 PA), Kotchman missed nearly the entire 2006 season while batting mononucleosis. He finally got a shot at everyday playing time in 2007, and the results were fairly promising. In 508 PA, Kotchman compiled a 121 wRC+. He controlled the zone (10.7 BB%, 9.7 K%), while actually flashing some extra-base thump as well, with a .172 ISO.

Since then, Casey has been far from mighty at the bat:

In 2008, Kotchman was mid-season trade bait used to acquire Mark Teixeira from Atlanta. Between the Angels and the Braves, Kotchman hit a mundane .272/.328/.410 in 573 PA. His wRC+ dipped to 96. Kotchman’s walk rate fell to 6.4 percent, as his percentage of pitches seen within the strike zone spiked from 36.2% in 2007 to 48.8% in 2008 (the MLB average has ranged from 49-52% over the past few seasons).

Last offseason, we noted Kotchman’s disturbing propensity to chop the ball into the infield dirt. His near-53 percent groundball rate was commensurate with some of the speedier players in the game. As a plodding first baseman, Kotchman stuck out like a sore thumb.

Unfortunately, Kotchman continued to put the ball on the ground a ton in 2009. His 51.4 ground ball rate was highest among first basemen with 350+PA. As a guy on the low end of the defensive spectrum with a career 2.7 Speed Score, Kotchman isn’t doing much with those grounders. His batting average on grounders was .185 in 2009, and his career average is .188. For reference, the A.L. average last season was .240.

Traded again mid-season in 2009 (this time to Boston for Adam LaRoche), Kotchman batted just .268/.339/.382 with a 92 wRC+ in 431 PA. His walk rate did bounce back to 10.4 percent, but his ISO declined from 2008’s already mild .137 to .114. Overall, MLB first basemen hit .277/.362/.483 in 2009, with a .206 ISO.

Kotchman just doesn’t pull the ball with any authority. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, here are Kotchman’s spray charts over the past three seasons. Focus on that last number, sOPS+. It compares a batter’s performance to that of the league average in a given split. 100 is average, above 100 is above average and below 100 is below-average.

Over the past three seasons, the average AL lefty batter has pulled the ball about 26 percent of the time, slugging .756 on pulled balls. Kotchman has pulled the ball about 31 percent of the time. But his slugging percentage is just .603. As this spray chart from Trip Somers’ site shows, nothin’ much happens when Casey pulls the ball:

Moving to Seattle won’t do Kotchman’s bat any favors. While Safeco isn’t total death to lefties like it is to righty batters, it still punishes southpaw hitters. Per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco has depressed lefty home runs by five percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009.

Kotchman brings some value to the table with his glove (career +4.4 UZR/150), but it’s hard to recommend him in fantasy leagues. Maybe he’ll finally start to pull the ball with some force and make good on those scouting prognostications. But there just isn’t much evidence to suggest that’s going to be the case. CHONE projects a .274/.339/.405 line next season. You can do better than that at first base.