Archive for First Base

With the worst wOBA in the American League, the Baltimore Orioles club is looking to kick-start a sluggish offense. As a result, the organization promoted triple-A first baseman Rhyne Hughes to the Majors on Saturday.

Hughes is a name you may not be familiar with. He was not amongst Baltimore’s Top 10 prospects for 2010 when we published the list prior to the season. He did not make Baseball America’s Top 30 list. Hughes was originally acquired from the Rays in ’09 during a late-season trade involving veteran catcher Gregg Zaun. He was drafted by the Rays in the eighth round of the ’04 draft out of a small community college.

The 26-year-old first baseman will make his MLB debut when he is penciled into the lineup for the first time. He was hitting .353/.421/.667 in 51 at-bats this season at triple-A. He had three homers and five doubles in 15 games. Last season with three teams, Hughes hit .279/.349/.506 with 25 homers and 79 RBI in 515 at-bats. He also, unfortunately, had a strikeout rate of 33%.

The left-hand hitting Hughes could platoon with the right-hand hitting Garrett Atkins, who has a .242 wOBA, but is actually performing better against right-handed pitchers right now (He’s 0-for-16 vs LHPs). Hughes has a career OPS of .843 against right-handers (compared to .716 vs LHPs).

From a fantasy perspective, Hughes has little value unless he can wrestle the full-time job away from Atkins. The rookie should be monitored in AL-only leagues but, hey, he’s no Kila Ka’aihue.

From April 16 at FanGraphs: Ka’aihue probably fits best with the O’s. The club is second last in the American League in on-base percentage (.309) and is 11th (out of 14 teams) in slugging percentage. Those just happen to be the two areas that Ka’aihue excels in. He slugged 37 homers between double-A and triple-A in ‘08 and followed that up with 17 at triple-A in ‘09. He’s walked 100+ times in each of the past two seasons and had a walk rate of 18.4% in ‘09. His BB/K rate was an impressive 1.20.

With Chris Davis struggling to do much of anything at the plate, the Rangers turned to their cache of prospects and called up one of the game’s very best, first baseman Justin Smoak. Based on how they handled Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon (during his second call-up), they promoted Smoak with the intention of playing him, not to use him as a spot starter/pinch hitter.

CHONE projects a meager .240/.340/.363 batting line with eight homers for the former South Carolina standout, but I think that’s selling him short. During his 14-game stint with Triple-A Oklahoma City (an obviously small sample), Smoak hit .326/.500/.587 with a gaudy 6/16 K/BB ratio, which is as many walks as Davis has drawn in the last ten months. His career minor league line sits at .295/.413/.465. Smoak doesn’t offer a tremendous amount of power, but he’s going to play half his games in a park that has inflated homeruns nearly 20% over the last three years. Double digit bombs is certainly in the realm of possibility, plus he’ll score plenty of runs because he’s an on-base monster.

The one concern is that even though he’s a switch hitter, Smoak does have a rather pronounced platoon split – .324/.443/.505 vs. RHP, .215/.304/.331 vs. LHP – in his pro career according to minorleaguesplits.com. There’s plenty of quality lefthanders in the AL West, so he might not be an every day starter for your team, at least initially.

Ike Davis‘ promotion to the big leagues was much more ballyhooed because of his market, but Smoak is a superior fantasy option in essentially every single way. He’s owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues, so run out and grab him if you need some help at first or could use a nice trade chip.

As for (Chris) Davis, expect his playing time to take a pretty significant hit, and don’t be surprised to see him wind back up in the minors for a little wake-up call. The 1B/3B eligibility is nice, but he fantasy value is as low as can be. Swinging at one out of every three pitches out of the zone is no way to live life.

We’ll do a tiered approach here. It’s what we do.

Ervin Santana | SP | Los Angeles (54% owned)
While the ownership numbers may be perplexing (he’s owned in all of my leagues), there’s reason for hope when it comes to the other Santana (soon to be the other other Santana). Most of the signs are looking good for Santana – his strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, and he’s even sporting a career-high ground ball rate. The only worrisome thing might be the reduced effectiveness of his slider as measured by his linear weights. It can’t be the half-MPH that he’s lost on the pitch, can it? In any case, he’s benefiting from a career-best 38.9% contact rate on pitches outside the zone, which doesn’t seem like it can continue when seen in the face of his career 58.4% rate. Perhaps people will start whiffing a little more on his pitches in the zone (98.8% !). It’s a strange mix right now, but since he’s healthy he should be on more rosters.

Casey Kotchman | 1B | Seattle (6% owned)
Paradoxically, it took a move to one of the toughest parks in the league for Kotchman to break out his career-best ISO (.310). Of course, that number only stabilizes around 450 plate appearances, so we shouldn’t read too much into it. Instead, let’s look at the numbers that stabilize the quickest: swing rates. Because they are based on pitch-by-pitch data, swing rates have a larger sample size in the early going. Kotchman is swinging at a career-low rate (35% this year, 45.4% career), and this has lead to the best K/BB ratio of his career (1.5). The strikeout percentage is below 10% and good for 25th-best in the league in the early going. That sort of ueber-patience seems to be serving him well. Don’t buy into the power, but the patience may end up leading to a good batting average and good run production, given the dearth of offense in Seattle.

Bud Norris | SP | Houston (5% owned)
(I know, the tiers are a little off.) Ever since Cistulli wrote this masterpiece about Norris’ nice outside-the-zone whiff rate, he has been an interesting character here in the green-and-eggshell. The secondary statistics for Norris are actually sort of frightening – he has an otherworldly strikeout rate (14.09 K/9), a disastrous walk rate (8.22 BB/9), and an insert-bad-adjective here groundball rate (23.8%). Group these rates with his zero HR/9 and you have an early-season special – an ERA (3.52) between his FIP (2.60) and his xFIP (4.03). That might be a strange feat – if it were to happen over a full season. I’d say some of those fly balls will begin to leave Minute Maid park shortly and that the xFIP is the number to follow, but that’s still a decent number that deserves attention. Maybe Norris will split the difference between his good start and bad start the next time he climbs the hill.

Ownership numbers courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

It was inevitable. After just two weeks, the Mets summoned hot shot prospect Ike Davis from the minors to replace Mike Jacobs, the last big power hitting prospect produced by their farm system. Davis had a fantastic big league debut, going 2-for-4 with a run driven in against the Cubbies last night, and the tabloids already have him pegged as the future of the franchise. That’s all well and good, but what does Davis’ arrival mean for fantasy owners?

Supposedly, Davis will play every day at least until the incumbent Daniel Murphy returns, which is good news. There’s no point in calling up your best prospect in April and playing him only sparingly (apparently they haven’t realized that with Jenrry Mejia yet). Davis mashed in the minors, with a .226 ISO and an 11.7 BB% between two levels last year, and he started off this season with a .364/.500/.636 performance in 42 Triple-A plate appearances.

His bane is lefty pitchers, and has been since his days at Arizona State (seriously, who had him beating college teammate and fellow 2008 first rounder Brett Wallace to majors?). Davis hit .267 (.369 BABIP) with a .110 ISO against southpaws in the minors, compared to .297 (.343 BABIP) with a .203 ISO vs. righties, though 191 and 478 at-bats aren’t the largest of sample sizes. He did hang in well to single off Sean Marshall last night, who fed him three curveballs and a slider.

CHONE forecasts a .231 batting average with 11 homers and 39 RBI for Davis in 114 games this year, while PECOTA’s 50th-percentile pegs him for almost the same: .231-11-41. That puts him in Casey Kotchman/Lyle Overbay territory, though Davis certainly offers the potential for more. My hunch is that he’s perform very well his first time through the league, but will start to come back down to earth once the book gets out. At that point he’d be a sell high candidate.

Davis was added to the player pool in Yahoo! leagues this morning, and chances are the Mets’ fan in your league already grabbed him. If not, he’s a worthy add for the bench if your first basemen are underperforming, or if you’re in an NL-only or deep mixed league. Just make sure you sit him against southpaws.

After being listed as Day-to-Day with computer problems last week, I’m 100% and returning to your lineup. I’m going to stick with FANS projected wOBA for now, with a switch to 2010 stats after the first month is over.

The Machine
Albert Pujols (.442 wOBA)

If Albert was ever moved down, and he found out, I’d probably be dead the next morning.

Big Ballerz
Ryan Howard (.388)
Miguel Cabrera (.404)
Prince Fielder (.408)
Mark Teixeira (.405)

The “z” at the end makes it cool! Teixeira always starts out slow, so I’m not worried about him quite yet. I like what I’m seeing from Howard thus far, but I want to see him keep it up for the rest of the month.

Good to Go
Adrian Gonzalez (.395)
Kevin Youkilis (.401)
Joey Votto (.399)

A-Gon and Votto switch places this week. I really like Votto, but if someone offered me A-Gon for Votto I’d probably take it. This group is the one who’s order gave me the most trouble, so I’m interested to hear what you all think.

A Canadian, A Cuban, and a Fat Guy
Derek Lee (.381)
Justin Morneau (.377)
Kendry Morales (.362)
Adam Dunn (.385)

Dunn and Morales do a flip-flop here, since I’m liking Morales bringing the power early on. Mr. Maple Leaf is starting out strong in his own right, so you may see him up higher some time soon.

One of These Things is Not Like the Other
Carlos Pena (.381)
Billy Butler (.379)
James Loney (.344)
Todd Helton (.386)

Three high average hitters…and Carlos Pena. With the way the Rays are playing, it looks like Pena won’t be leaving St. Pete anytime soon.

Peg Legs
Garrett Jones (.347)
Adam LaRoche (.351)
Lance Berkman (.396)

Even though Berkman might come back this week, I’m dropping him way down. I don’t think he’ll stay healthy for long, and the rest of the junk heap that is the Astros will help drag his value down. I think LaRoche could be in the OTTNLO group soon, but he’s more likely to rise after his surge towards the second half of the season.

The Rest of ‘Em
Paul Konerko (.350)
Luke Scott (.346)
Nick Johnson (.390)
Chris Davis (.344)
David Ortiz (.362)
Russell Branyan (.359)

Papi and Johnson debut on the list, but probably not as high as you folks would like. I would not be surprised if Justin Smoak was called up in the middle of May, causing Davis to lose his gig.

On their way to New York to play the Mets on Opening Day, the Marlins stopped in at Greensboro on Saturday, the home of their Single-A affiliate in the South Atlantic League. It was a big deal in Greensboro and it gave the city a chance to see major league talent up close. The big attractions were stars like Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu and Dan Uggla. But just as important to the crowd was the chance to catch up with former members of both the Greensboro Bats and Greensboro Grasshoppers.

In all, eight players on the Marlins Travel Roster played minor league ball in Greensboro. Neither Josh Johnson nor Chris Volstad appeared Saturday, meaning that the biggest local star for the Marlins was 2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan. The Marlins hope they will have another candidate for Rookie of the Year Award honors this year with Gaby Sanchez, who won the first base job in Spring Training.

Most people consider Logan Morrison to be the Marlins’ first baseman of the future but Sanchez gets first crack to establish himself in the majors. I got to ask some of the coaches about the two youngsters, the decision-making process and the future for both players.

Manager Fredi Gonzalez insisted that the first base job was up for grabs and that Morrison would have been the choice with a better Spring.

“(Sanchez) came into Spring Training in open competition with Logan Morrison, another Hopper,” Gonazlez said. “He won the competition. That’s not saying anything bad about Logan Morrison because he’s going to be a very good major leaguer. Gaby won that competition and is going to start the season with us. Now he’s got to produce. If it doesn’t happen, which I hope doesn’t happen, Logan Morrison is a pretty good backup plan.”

Hitting coach Jim Presley also said that it was a Spring Training decision.

“Two great young players going head-to-head,” Presley described the situation. “Obviously Gaby won that one, he hit over .400 and Morrison had a little bit of a struggle early. Gaby’s a little bit ahead of him right now but Morrison has a little bit of a bad hand from last year and I think that affected him a little bit. He’s going to be a great hitter. He’s going to be in the big leagues pretty soon and going to be there for a long time.”

Putting aside the wisdom of deciding a starting job based on 55 at-bats for Sanchez (.364/.410/.582) and 43 for Morrison (.209/.244/.326), the fact that Morrison was in line for a job after just 278 at-bats above A-ball shows how much the organization values the 22-year old.

“He stays inside the ball and has big-time juice,” Presley said of Morrison. “He hits the ball the other way so well we were trying to get him to turn on the ball in. He started doing that. He’s going to play in the big leagues, there’s no doubt about that.”

Last year, 12 of the 25 qualified first basemen in the majors hit 30 HR. Neither Sanchez nor Morrison projects with that type of power right now but Presley was unconcerned about that.

About Sanchez, Presley said, “Could he hit 20 in the big leagues? Sure. Will he hit 30? Probably not. He’s got the right approach and he’s going to hit .300 in the big leagues for you. He’s not your prototypical power hitting first baseman but he knows what he’s doing.”

The four projection systems on FanGraphs predict Sanchez to hit from between .270 and .279 this season. The big difference is playing time. Marcel gives him only 212 ABs while ZiPS projects 480. The most HR projected by any system is 15.

Presley noted that Morrison’s hand injury limited his chances to win the starting job this year.

“He was recovered from it but he didn’t get to play a lot and I think that affected him,” Presley said. “He had to take the winter off and kind of let it regroup. Guys trying to win a position, you want to see them go to Winter Ball and Gaby did that. He went to the Dominican and played and that made a difference.”

In 26 games in the DWL, Sanchez posted a .232/.333/.453 line in 95 at-bats.

Gonzalez indicated that the club has considered a plan to get both Sanchez and Morrison in the lineup at the same time.

“You could move Coghlan to second and put Morrison in left field and there you go,” Gonzalez said. “But who knows, down the road you make a few moves and that plan goes out the window.”

Bench coach Carlos Tosca agreed that if the two were to be in the same lineup, it would be Morrison as the one to switch positions.

“Mo would be more of a candidate to do that than Gaby would,” Tosca said.

While Tosca seemed doubtful of them both playing together, he did think either could be assets defensively at first base.

“Defensively they’re good first basemen. They play a little different. Gaby’s a little more of a routine type of guy while Mo is a little more fly by the seat of your pants type guy but they both have a chance to be good first basemen.”

Sanchez got off to a rough start defensively but he did deliver two hits on Opening Day. But even if he struggles offensively, expect Sanchez to get enough time to work out of any slumps.

“If you know anything about our manager,” Tosca said, “ he’s a very patient man. He’s going to give Gaby or anybody else an opportunity to show what they’re capable of doing.”

So Morrison finds himself at Triple-A New Orleans, which opens its season on Thursday. Gonzalez referenced Coghlan when asked about a potential promotion for Morrison in 2010. After putting up a .970 OPS in 25 games in New Orleans last year, Coghlan got the call to the majors in the second week of May.

The lesson for Morrison and his fantasy owners is that if he produces in Triple-A, he will get a shot. Of course, Coghlan came up to provide infield depth and because he produced he worked his way into the starting job in left field. So if Morrison does get a promotion, it does not necessarily mean that Sanchez is heading to the bench.

This year could be a make-or-break year for Sanchez, at least with the Marlins. If he does not establish himself as a starter this year, it will likely be much more difficult fending off Morrison after he has a full year in the high minors under his belt. But at the same time, fantasy owners of Sanchez should be encouraged that he will not get yanked at the first sign of trouble.

Here we go with the first base rankings to start off the season. All wOBA numbers are based on FANS projections, unless otherwise noted.

The Machine:
Albert Pujols (.442 wOBA)

Albert is better than you, and he knows it. Bow down (or kowtow, for all you English majors) to Albert and his greatness.

Big Boys:
Ryan Howard (.388)
Miguel Cabrera (.404)
Prince Fielder (.408)
Mark Teixeira (.405)

What can I say about these guys? They are good, and they are big. All four of these guys are first round picks, and I can’t speak ill of any of their skills.

Slightly Smaller Boys:
Joey Votto (.399)
Kevin Youkilis (.401)
Adrian Gonzalez (.395)

Votto and Youk won’t give you top notch pop, and Gonzo may get walked too often to be a great value in 5×5 leagues. But, you are still in good shape if you grab one of these guys in the second or third round.

Still Feelin’ Good:
Lance Berkman (.396)
Derek Lee (.381)
Justin Morneau (.377)
Adam Dunn (.385)
Kendry Morales (.362)
Carlos Pena (.381)

Berkman was undervalued before his injury, but I still think he’ll give you a nice season. If you really want power, feel free to sacrifice batting average and select Pena or Dunn. I’m not a fan of Lee, and as you can see, Morales is not on any of my teams this year.

At Least There’s Upside:
Billy Butler (.379)
Garrett Jones (.347)
James Loney (.344)

Jones hit two dingers yesterday, so he’s off to a nice start. His OF eligibility won’t hurt, either. Butler has good upside, and was knocking on the door of the group above. Loney can help you if you’ve got enough power in other areas and just need some help with your batting average.

Rock Solid:
Adam LaRoche (.351)
Todd Helton (.386)
Paul Konerko (.350)

I really like LaRoche this year. He’s a nice guy for a CI spot, or even UTIL if you want to have a better pitching staff. Helton’s playing time will be held back to make sure he’s healthy late in the year, so that’s his only real downside.

The Rest of ‘Em:
Chris Davis (.344)
Luke Scott (.346)
Russell Branyan (.359)

Davis and Scott have playing time issues, and Branyan is already missing time. Not a pretty group.

Tampa Bay Rays signed DH/1B Hank Blalock to a minor league contract.

Blalock, 29, will earn $925,000, with $350,000 in performance incentives. According to Bill Chastain’s MLB.com article, the pact also includes an opt-out if the long-time Ranger fails to crack Tampa Bay’s big league roster.

Over the past three seasons, Blalock’s bat has been six percent better than the average MLB hitter (106 wRC+). Considering that a litany of health problems have resigned him to first base and DH, that means that Blalock (who posted 5.2 Wins Above Replacement in 2003 and 4.3 WAR in 2004) has been slightly north of replacement-level in recent years.

In 2007, Blalock missed a big chunk of the season following surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. A left hamstring injury and right shoulder inflammation put him on the shelf for much of 2008 (injury info courtesy of the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

This past year, the erstwhile lefty slugger didn’t hit the DL. However, he limped to a .234/.277/.459 line, with an 87 wRC+. Blalock did have some lousy luck on balls put in play: his BABIP was .249, compared to a .311 expected BABIP (xBABIP) and a career .296 mark.

Even So, Blalock did his best Mike Jacobs impression at the plate. He took a cut at 30.1 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% percent MLB average), drawing ball four in a career-low 5.3 percent of his PA. While he cranked fastballs in the past (+0.75 runs per 100 pitches during his career), Blalock was -0.2 runs below average per 100 fastballs seen in ’09.

Should he make the Rays, Blalock figures to compete with Pat Burrell (he of a bum neck and 85 wRC+ in 2009) for AB’s in the DH slot. With nicknames like “Hammerin’ Hank” and “Pat the Bat,” Tampa’s prospective DH duo sounds like it should punish opposing pitchers (or at the very least, make a great WWE tag team). However, CHONE is none too impressed with either former famous dude:

2010 CHONE projections

Blalock: .328 wOBA, 100 wRC+
Burrell: .329 wOBA, 100 wRC+

The Rays figure to leverage the two, using Blalock against right-handers and Burrell to handle southpaws. Using a platoon projection method outlined in The Book, Matt Klaassen forecasts Blalock to post a .342 wOBA against righties and a .291 wOBA versus same-handed pitching. Using a similar method to project Burrell’s splits, I get a .334 figure against left-handers and a .316 wOBA versus righties. Even with the platoon advantage, Blalock and Burrell won’t be much above replacement-level if they perform as CHONE expects.

Ever since the Los Angeles Dodgers took him with the 19th overall pick in the 2002 draft, first baseman James Loney has been expected to develop power to complement a fluid, high-contact swing.

The 6-3, 220 pound lefty batter rarely hit with authority in the minor leagues, putting up a cumulative .296/.363/.430 triple-slash and a mild .134 Isolated Power. Loney reached L.A. in 2006, and he actually made those scouts look prescient by putting a charge into the ball in limited playing time in both ’06 and 2007. Since then, however, Loney’s power has been sorely lacking:

Here are Loney’s ISO and wRC+ figures during his big league career:

2006: 111 PA, .275 ISO, 132 wRC+
2007: 375 PA, .206 ISO, 140 wRC+
2008: 651 PA, .145 ISO, 106 wRC+
2009: 652 PA, .118 ISO, 104 wRC+

Over the past two seasons, the 25 year-old has the lowest ISO among first basemen (.132). It’s not particularly close, either: Todd Helton (.149 ISO) and Billy Butler (.163 ISO) are the next low men on the first base power totem pole.

As one might expect, Loney pulls the ball less than the average lefty batter, while hitting more to the opposite field (data courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

The pull field (right field for Loney) is where most batters put up their power numbers. Loney is no different. Actually, he has been outstanding when he laces the horsehide to right field. But, in addition to pulling the ball less often and hitting to the relatively punch less opposite field more than most, Loney has been well below-average on pitches hit up the middle:

As you can see, the pull field is where it’s at for batters (sorry, Mr. Bernazard). The average lefty hitter posts a .399 wOBA on pulled pitches, .360 to center and .316 to left field. Loney is a monster when he pulls (.430 wOBA), and he’s slightly above-average to left (.319 wOBA-but again, opposite field hitting is weaker overall, and Loney hits more pitches in that direction than the average lefty). But to center, his bat barely makes a peep (.325 wOBA).

Loney does make scads of contact. During his career, he has put the bat on the ball 93.5 percent of the time on pitches within the strike zone (87-88 percent MLB average), and 74.4 percent on offerings tossed out of the zone (60-61 percent MLB average). His contact rate is the 20th-highest in the majors over the past two seasons. However, that contact-oriented approach likely comes at the expense of extra-base clout.

He did do a better job of laying off junk pitches last year, which led to a career-high 10.7 percent walk rate. But even with an improved eye, he posted a .281/.357/.399 line at a position where the overall line was .277/.362/.483.

For 2010, CHONE projects Loney to hit .294/.355/.446 (116 wRC+). Those are essentially his career numbers to this point: .295/.354/.451, with a 114 wRC+. Loney’s RBI totals might lull fantasy players into thinking he’s a good option, but relative to the position that he plays, L.A.’s first baseman just hasn’t stacked up thus far. While he’s still young enough to show further improvement, Loney needs to lash the ball more frequently in order to truly be an asset.

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis (.449 wOBA)
2. Mark Teixeira, New York AL (.402 wOBA)
3. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee (.420 wOBA)

A full season of Matt Holliday’s presence in the lineup could have a profound effect on Pujols, although it’s hard to imagine him being any more productive. The big first baseman even gave fantasy owners an added bonus in ’09 by stealing 16 bases, so it would be great to receive double-digit steals again… but don’t count on it. With Pujols, you know you’re getting a .300 average, 35+ homers, as well as 100+ RBIs and runs. If you play in an on-base league, he’ll even give you more than 100 walks.

Teixeira certainly benefits from a powerful lineup and new Yankee Stadium won’t hurt his power numbers. Despite the big year in ’09, he’s still a step behind the big man in St. Louis. If Alex Rodriguez can have a big (and fully healthy) year, though, and Curtis Granderson takes to pinstripes as expected, then Teixeira will continue to have plenty of protection in the lineup.

Fielder doesn’t have quite the protection that Tex has, but he had a massive season in ’09 despite getting off to a slow start in April (.354 wOBA). He just missed hitting .300 while slamming 46 homers and driving in 141 runs (which tied him with Ryan Howard for tops in the Majors). Fielder will continue to benefit from having Ryan Braun in the lineup and the speedy Alcides Escobar should do a good job of getting into scoring position with 30+ stolen base ability. A return to health by Rickie Weeks could also have a positive impact on the lineup.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit (.402 wOBA)
5. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia (.393 wOBA)
6. Joey Votto, Cincinnati (.418 wOBA)
7. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego (.402 wOBA)
8. Kevin Youkilis, Boston (.413 wOBA)
9. Justin Morneau, Minnesota (.371 wOBA)

With two rookies (Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore) projected to start in the lineup, as well as a declining Magglio Ordonez, Cabrera was surrounded by a lot of question marks entering spring training in 2010. However, the late addition of Johnny Damon should have a nice effect on the lineup, as well as Cabrera’s numbers… unless age suddenly catches up to the former Yankee. Howard can match Fielder in homers and runs batted in, but he’s not going to hit for a high average and his walk and strikeout rates can take a toll depending on what type of league you’re playing in (such as an on-base league, or one that penalizes for strikeouts). On the plus side, he receives plenty of protection in a lineup that also features the likes of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and Jayson Werth.

Both Votto and Morneau are young-ish first basemen that missed some time in ’09. Even so, Votto had a career year and he produced a triple-slash line of .322/.414/.567. A full, healthy season could produce 100 runs and RBIs (and possibly 30 homers), which could vault him into elite status. A breakout year by Jay Bruce could also help. Morneau posted his second highest ISO ever (.242) and still drove in 100 runs despite playing in just 135 games. The presence of Joe Mauer in the lineup helps to take some of the pressure off of the Canadian slugger.

Gonzalez’ fantasy value will likely always be hindered by his home park, as long as he continues to play for the Padres. A move to a team like the Red Sox or White Sox, though, would shoot him up the charts. Despite his surroundings (and modest lineup support), Gonzalez still produced excellent numbers in ’09. He slugged 40 homers for the first time while his walk rate skyrocketed to 17.5%. On the downside, his .407 OBP was not enough to help him score more than 100 runs thanks to the lineup around him (He crossed the plate just 90 times). He also fell one short of the 100 RBI mark. Youkilis had a second straight .300+ average, 27+ homer season. He also scored 99 runs and drove in 94. A full season from Victor Martinez, as well as the presence of Marco Scutaro at the top of the order, will be nice but the lineup is not as scary as it used to be.

The Leftovers:
10. Lance Berkman, Houston (.386 wOBA)
11. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles AL (.382 wOBA)
12. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay (.374 wOBA)
13. Derrek Lee, Chicago NL (.412 wOBA)
14. Adam Dunn, Washington (.394 wOBA)
15. Todd Helton, Colorado (.392 wOBA)

Here we have some first basemen that are starting to show some gray around the edges in Berkman (age 34), Lee (34) and Helton (36). With that said, these players still have some pop in their bats. Berkman won’t have much offensive help from his fellow Astros infielders in 2010, so he’ll have to rely on the likes of Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence to help pad his numbers. Lee, coming off of the second-highest wOBA of his career, will look to keep the momentum going strong. Helton doesn’t provide the power numbers like he used to, but he’s a smart, .300 hitter who is surrounded by a talented lineup that should be even better in 2010.

Pena has produced 30+ homers and 100+ RBI for three straight seasons but his average has also plummeted from .282 to .247 to .227. You have to be a little concerned with the rising strikeout numbers, as well. Dunn lacks protection in Washington lineup so he’s probably not going to score 100 or more runs despite 100+ walks. Morales had a breakout ’09 season and he has the potential to have another excellent season but don’t pay too much for what could have been a career year; he’s not among the elite sluggers just yet.

Up Next: The Second Basemen