Archive for First Base

Cleveland Indians signed OF Austin Kearns and OF/1B Shelley Duncan to minor league contracts.

Have you seen Kearns’ bat? He misplaced it in 2008, and hasn’t been able to find it since. The former Red won’t 30 until May, but his production dropped like a lead balloon over the past two seasons. Injuries have often plagued Kearns, but he posted a 118 wRC+ in a 2006 season split between Cincinnati and Washington and a 107 wRC+ with the Nationals in 2007. He topped the 600 PA mark both years.

Since then, Kearns has a ghastly 75 wRC+ while showing the durability of antique porcelain. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X Injury Tool, the 6-3 righty batter missed time in 2008 following right elbow surgery, while serving another DL stint for a stress fracture in his left foot. 2009 was tainted by right thumb surgery. Kearns still drew some walks in ’08 and ’09, but his power vanished:

Kearns’ ISO, by year

Kearns has been a quality defensive outfielder during his career, which helps his chances a bit. But he was an absolute wreck at the plate in 2009, with a sub-70 percent contact rate and a middle infielder-like .109 ISO. More than anything, he needs to show up to spring training in one piece.

Duncan, meanwhile, is a minor league slugger from the Yankees organization known for giving some hellacious forearm bumps.

The 30 year-old right-handed batter stands a hulking 6-5, 225 pounds, and holds a career .271/.368/.533 line in 1,200+ PA at the Triple-A level. He has drawn walks at a 12.8% clip, while striking out 19.9%. Duncan’s ISO in Triple-A is a robust .262.

Duncan has received minimal major league playing time, batting .219/.290/.411 with an 84 wRC+ in 163 PA. How would Duncan’s minor league mashing play at the highest level? Here are his Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from 2007-2009, courtesy of Minor League Splits:

2007
AAA: .291/.379/.565 in 333 AB
MLE: .250/.322/.468

2008
AAA: .239/.363/.483 in 215 AB
MLE: .200/.299/.395

2009
AAA: .277/.371/.548 in 451 AB
MLE: .237/.316/.454

Duncan’s raw numbers look great, but his MLEs paint the picture of a league-average hitter because of his age. CHONE is more optimistic, projecting a .252/.336/.486 triple-slash in the majors.

Joey Votto has been one of the Reds brighter spots since they made him a second round selection in the 2002 draft. He progressed steadily through the minor league system and made his major league debut late in 2007.

Votto had a very solid rookie season (.373 wOBA) in 2008 and built upon that strongly in 2009. Despite missing a few weeks in June due to a bout with depression and anxiety attacks over the sudden loss of his father, Votto, had an extremely encouraging 2009 season. In 131 games and 469 at-bats Votto hit .322/.414/.567 with 25 home runs. He had the third highest wOBA (.418) in the majors trailing only Albert Pujols (.449) and Prince Fielder (.420).

Votto’s .373 BABIP in 2009 stands out like a sore thumb and when we refer to the expected BABIP calculator from The Hardball Times Votto’s expected BABIP is .317 based on his batted ball profile. This number would severely damage Votto’s triple slash. The calculator would have spit out this unimpressive line assuming that all hits subtracted from Votto’s line were generously singles:

.266/.358/.511

Color me unimpressed. I’m just not buying this. While we should expect some natural regression from Votto’s 2009 BABIP going forward I think the calculator is being too harsh here. It should also be noted that Votto has consistently strung together high BABIPs. Here are his BABIPs dating back to his 2006 season in Double-A:

2009: .373 (MLB)
2008: .330 (MLB)
2007: .354 (MLB-84 ABs) and .341 (AAA)
2006: .371 (AA)

Votto has consistently hit the ball hard and I think his 21.7% line drive percentage (a component that the calculator considers) in 2009 is hurting his expected BABIP score from the calculator. In 2008 his line drive percentage was 25.2% and it was 26.1% in 84 big league at-bats in 2007. While the 2009 mark suggests that he hit fewer line drives I believe that natural scorers bias could also be coming into play here especially considering his high 2009 BABIP and very low 2009 line drive rate compared to his 2008 and 2007 (small sample size) rates.

Votto has flown under the radar and isn’t quite a household name because he plays on a bad team and is overshadowed by four big name first basemen in his division in Pujols, Fielder, Derek Lee, and Lance Berkman. I wouldn’t peg Votto to hit around .320 again with some normal and expected BABIP regression but he’s going to be a good power source and provide a nice batting average around or slightly above .300. The Bill James (.311/.397/.550) and Fans (.311/.398/.535) projections look quite fair for Votto and much more accurate than the BABIP calculator’s glum forecast.

Bill James is projecting a .344 BABIP in 2010 and you, The Fans, have his projected BABIP at .352. That sounds about right to be but I’d expect a home run total north of 30 for Votto in 2010 since he has no significant injury history and appears to be over his depression and anxiety issues. Expect more long balls if he appears in 150+ games especially in the homer friendly ballpark in Cincinnati.

Votto deserves more recognition than he’s been granted and he may be a candidate that could slide to you in rounds 6-8 of your fantasy drafts. You would be getting fantastic value with him there and don’t be afraid to pop him a little earlier if need be. It’s all systems go for Votto.

According to Foxsports.com and MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez, the Atlanta Braves have come to terms with Troy Glaus on a one-year, incentive-laden contract.

Glaus, 33, has logged nearly 11,400 innings at third base in his career. However, a shoulder injury now limits the 6-4, 240 pound righty batter to the other infield corner. Glaus will take over first base duties in Atlanta, as the Braves look to bridge the gap at the position until top prospect Freddie Freeman is big league ready.

Health is the question mark with Glaus. He underwent right shoulder surgery last January, missing the vast majority of the 2009 season. As he tried to make his way back to the majors, Glaus had problems with a bulging disk in his back. On the rehab trail, Glaus batted .212/.340/.329 in 103 PA spread among High-A, AA and AAA. The former Angel, Diamondback and Blue Jay got just 32 plate appearances with the Cardinals, and was slowed by a strained oblique.

In his halcyon days, Glaus mashed with the best of them. During his last healthy year in 2008, he posted a 131 wRC+, meaning his offense was 31 percent better than average, once adjusted for park and league factors. His career wRC+ is 123, and his ISO is .241. A highly patient hitter (Glaus’ outside swing percentage is just 16.5% since 2002, compared to the 25% MLB average), Glaus has consistently posted healthy walk rates (13.7 BB% career).

It’s hard to say what Glaus has left at this juncture. He also had issues with his right shoulder back in 2003 and 2004, eventually needing surgery that wiped away a portion of his ’04 season. 2007 brought forth a left foot injury that required his going under the knife yet again.

(Injury information courtesy of the Fantasy Pitch F/X Injury Tool).

Keep a close watch on Glaus during the spring. If he’s relatively mended, he could be a cheap source of patience and pop. Of course, Glaus could also walk the Richie Sexson career path of doom.

According to MLB.com’s Dick Kaegel, the Royals have released arbitration-eligible DH/1B Mike Jacobs.

Ignoring Jacobs’ allergy to reaching base (career OBP: 313), inability to handle fellow lefties (.221/.269/.374 career vs. LHP) and iron glove (-9.0 UZR at first base), GM Dayton Moore acquired the 29 year-old from the Marlins last offseason for RHP Leo Nunez. Jacobs posted a .305 wOBA in 2009, which comes to -10.3 runs below average with the bat.

With Jacobs out of town, the Royals could look to Josh Fields or Kila Kaaihue to DH.

Fields, soon to be 27, was picked up along with Chris Getz earlier this offseason for Mark Teahen.

The 18th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Fields is a career .229/.302/.416 hitter in 746 major league PA. He posted a .336 wOBA and popped 23 HR with the White Sox back in 2007, but his career prospects have dimmed considerably since then.

Fields hit a mild .256/.341/.431 at AAA Charlotte in 2008 and .265/.357/.469 in 2009.

The former college QB has done a decent job of working the count in the majors, with a 9.3 percent walk rate and a 23.8 outside-swing percentage. Contact, however, has been hard to come by. Fields has whiffed 34 percent of the time, with a 71.1% contact rate (80-81% MLB average).

In the minors, the 6-2 righty batter showed a platoon split. Fields whapped lefty pitching for a .279/.386/.494 line, while hitting righties at a .266/.348/.443 rate.

In the big leagues, Fields has smacked southpaws for a .285/.356/.580 triple-slash, while laying an egg against same-handed hurlers (.206/.280/.348). It’s a good idea not to get too worked up about platoon splits based on a fairly small sample. But as a guy in his late twenties with limited defensive value, Fields is going to have to show more offensive force to remain relevant.

CHONE projects Fields to bat .247/.330/.407 in 2010 (.325 wOBA). ZiPS is even more pessimistic, throwing out a .237/.311/.394 line (.310 wOBA).

Ka’aihue, 25, always displayed a keen eye in the minors, but his performance was nondescript until 2008.

The Kila Monster batted a combined .314/.456/.628 between the AA Texas League and the AAA Pacific Coast League in ’08. The big lefty hitter walked an astounding 20.2 percent of the time, with a .314 ISO. Per Minor League Splits, Ka’aihue’s major league equivalent line was .243/.354/.442.

With Jacobs competing with the Guillens, Betancourts and Olivos of the world to see who could trot back to the dugout quickest, Kila spent 2009 back at AAA Omaha. While he was still exceptionally patient (18.8 BB%), Ka’aihue’s power output was disappointing (.181 ISO). Kila’s .252/.392/.433 showing with the O-Royals equated to just a .205/.316/.325 major league line.

It’s hard not to admire Ka’aihue’s zen-like patience at the plate. But first base/DH prospects, in their mid-twenties, with limited power, don’t translate especially well to the next level. CHONE tabs Kila for a .243/.355/.393 line in 2010 (.335 wOBA), while ZiPS envisions a .255/.350/.403 performance (.335 wOBA). Ka’aihue is pretty much the new Dan Johnson.

Of course, the Royals could go outside the organization to fill the DH spot. Or, they could shift Billy Butler back to the spot and pursue a first baseman. It’s also possible that the charred remains of Jose Guillen’s career could shift to DH full-time (sigh).

There’s no time like the present for both Fields and Ka’aihue. Each needs to produce in the here and now to avoid becoming intimately familiar with the AAA circuit.

When the Milwaukee Brewers selected Matt LaPorta with the 7th overall pick in the 2007 draft, some fans and analysts did a spit-take.

Few doubted that the University of Florida slugger could rake. An injury-plagued junior season, coupled with a hefty price tag, caused LaPorta to drop to the 14th round of the ’06 draft (he and the Red Sox couldn’t come to terms). But the 6-2, 210 pound righty possessed what Baseball America described as “plus-plus raw power.” Having recovered from an oblique injury, LaPorta’s pop was a “game-changing tool.”

The problem, the skeptics said, came on the other side of the equation. LaPorta was praised for his polished bat but penalized for plodding defense. With Prince Fielder entrenched at first base, where would LaPorta play?

To the club’s credit, the Brewers drafted based on pure talent instead of myopically taking a player who better fit a short-term organizational need. The composition of a major league roster is far too fluid to draft based on filling some immediate void. If LaPorta’s bat was as good as advertised, Milwaukee at worst had a coveted trade chip.

After the ink dried on his $2M signing bonus and a strained quad muscle healed, LaPorta destroyed fresh-faced pitchers late in the 2007 season (.304/.369/.696 in 130 PA between Rookie Ball and Low-A).

In an effort to fit his bat into the big league picture, LaPorta played the outfield corners. BA rated the former Gator as the best prospect in the Brewers system, saying that he “shouldn’t need much more than a full season in the minors before becoming an impact hitter in Milwaukee.”

Realizing that LaPorta’s lumber was highly advanced, the Brewers jumped their prized hitter up to AA Huntsville in 2008. He shone brightest in a prospect-laden Stars lineup, hammering the Southern League for a .288/.402/.576 triple-slash in 366 PA. LaPorta popped 20 homers, with a .288 ISO. He was no hacker either, walking in 13% of his PA and whiffing at a rather modest rate for a slugger (20 K%).

Looking to make the playoffs for the first time since Harvey’s Wallbangers back in 1982, the Brewers cashed in their best prospect in July to acquire CC Sabathia from the Indians.

LaPorta headed to Cleveland along with RHP Rob Bryson, LHP Zach Jackson and a PTBNL that eventually became OF Michael Brantley.

He played in the Beijing Olympics after the swap, suffering a concussion in a mid-August contest. In 67 PA at AA with his new club, LaPorta hit .233/.299/.350. BA dubbed him the second-best prospect in Cleveland’s system entering 2009. As Milwaukee had, Cleveland played LaPorta mostly in left and right field.

Splitting the ’09 campaign between AAA Columbus and Cleveland, LaPorta laid waste to International League pitching while getting his feet wet in the majors.

LaPorta compiled a .299/.388/.530 line in 393 AAA PA, smashing 23 HR with a .231 ISO. His strike-zone control remained excellent, walking 11.1% of the time and punching out just 16.6%. According to Minor League Splits, LaPorta’s work in the minors translated to a .263/.336/.446 major league line.

With Cleveland, he turned in a .254/.308/.442 triple-slash in 198 PA, with a .327 wOBA. LaPorta slammed 7 dingers and recovered from a slow start to post a .188 ISO, though he didn’t work the count especially well. He drew a free pass 6.2% of the time, with a 28.9 outside-swing percentage (25% MLB average). LaPorta manned the outfield corners and first base.

LaPorta’s long-term defensive home is still up in the air. He shifted between the outfield and first base at AAA and in the majors, and his TotalZone defensive numbers don’t paint a pretty picture of his work running down balls in the gaps.

His bat, on the other hand, looks major league ready. LaPorta’s projections for the 2010 season don’t jump off the page, but he figures to be an above-average hitter with the potential to best his offensive forecasts. Bill James foresees a .347 wOBA from LaPorta next season, while Sean Smith’s CHONE throws out a line that also equates to a wOBA of .347. If I were a betting man, I would take the “over” on that wOBA.

The big question for LaPorta entering 2010 is his health. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left hip and left big toe in October. The procedures came with a 4-6 month recovery period, meaning he could be behind his teammates come spring training.

Twenty-five years old in January, LaPorta has the offensive skills to be an asset in mixed leagues. Track his progress as the offseason progresses. If his hip and toe are healing well, he could be a steal on draft day.

Either everyone wanted Adam LaRoche last season, or no one did. It’s hard to tell. LaRoche started the year with the Pirates, and was traded to the Red Sox as the trade deadline was still on the horizon. 9 days later, Boston shipped him off to the Atlanta Braves, bringing LaRoche’s pre free agent career full circle.

LaRoche, a notoriously slow starter, ended the season with 25 homers to go along with a .277/.355/.488 line. He also had 83 RBI and 78 runs, and most importantly, 2 steals. His numbers are right in line with what one should expect from LaRoche, as he hit 25 HR and had an identical wOBA (.357) in 2008. The only year he hasn’t had a line drive percentage below 20% was his rookie year in 2004.

With LaRoche, MLB and fantasy teams know what they are getting: a .275 average with 20+ dingers and 80 RBI. No surprises here. Only problem is, the level of consistency he has is not always rewarded. Teams are more likely to go after a player with the upside for a better season than LaRoche can provide, even if it may come back to bite them in the end.

Because of this, LaRoche’s suitors this offseason will be limited. The most likely scenario is LaRoche going back to the Braves on a one or two-year deal. The Giants could also get in on the action if they decide to non-tender Ryan Garko and spend the bulk of their money in the left field market. After those two, it’s a crapshoot for LaRoche on the open market. I do not foresee any AL team pursuing LaRoche and envisioning him as their everyday first baseman.

If he leaves the Braves, his teammates will notice he is gone more off the field than on it. He was a part of the nice streak the Braves put together to end the year, but he is much better at the end of seasons, anyway. The Braves would likely replace him in house, and the numbers from whoever moves over to first will get a boost from extended playing time.

If LaRoche lands a starting gig, owners should prefer that it is with Atlanta. The talent surrounding him is better than that on the Giants, and the stadium is a little more power friendly. You know what you are getting with LaRoche, so make sure he’s starting before letting him sit on your bench next season.

Once again it’s time for the companion piece to the rankings post from Thursdays. We broke down the first basemen this week, and it seemed that the position was deep, with players like Billy Butler, ranked fourteenth on our list, still capable of putting up .280/30/100 years. There’s a lot of value to be found after the top first basemen are off the board.

But are there great options once the first 15 first basemen are gone? There’s definitely a steep increase in risk. Zach Sanders did a good job breaking down the risk versus reward for Chris Davis this week, and Davis’ power potential is definitely worth the lower draft cost in 2010. Russell Branyan offers a similar power upside, but with his career strikeout rate at almost 40% (38.9% career) he’s actually even riskier in the batting average department. It is worth noting that he’s significantly improved his strikeout rate in the past two years (31.8% and 34.6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively), and if he holds on to that improvement, he could repeat his numbers from 2009.

Once you pass the whiff-or-bomb section of the rankings, it starts to look meager. People will be tempted to take James Loney earlier than they should, but he is a player that embodies the fallacy that all young players get better. Almost 1800 plate appearances into his career, though, we know what Loney is. He’s a line-drive-hitting (21.4% career) worm-burner (43.4% ground ball, 35.3% fly ball career) with below-average power (9% HR/FB career). Unless he gets lucky and has his career year, there’s no reason to think that Loney will do any better than hit .280+ with 15 or so home runs, and there are plenty of players that can do that and cost less in the draft.

Consider that you can probably get Lyle Overbay many rounds later, and Overbay is just as likely to hit .270 with 16 or so home runs. Don’t overpay for the ten points of batting average in this case, especially since Overbay’s declining batting average is actually easily managed – it is the result of declining splits. While Overbay used to be okay against lefties (.711 OPS career) he’s been terrible the last couple of years (.534 and .540 OPS versus southpaws the last two years). If you can manage Overbay daily, you can take advantage of his good split against right-handers (.847 OPS career) which was still strong the last two years (.905 in 2009, .865 in 2008). Provided that he ends up in a good position in real-life baseball, and that his fantasy owner finds a caddy for those days against lefties, Overbay makes a great late value pick.

Jorge Cantu is also an intriguing later-round value. Cantu proved that he is consistently inconsistent from year to year by following up a strong 2008 (.277, 29 home runs) with a year that looked completely different (.289, 16 home runs) in 2009. One thing that pops out in the numbers is that when his strikeout rate is high, his power his greater and his batting average is weaker. So, while it is great that he is walking more and striking out less as he ages, it makes predicting his power and batting average in 2010 difficult. Complicating the prediction process further is the fact that his team is unsettled and he is a candidate for a trade as he becomes more expensive. Bill James likes Cantu for .277 and 18 home runs next year (but with a few more strikeouts than in 2009), and, though seemingly rare with James’ projections, there is a chance for the player to outproduce those power numbers.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, and second basemen.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place. Oh, another note: these rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

It’s probable that Albert Pujols is a tier of his own. He is a true stud in every category when compared to his peers. But without the 15 or so steals, he might belong right along side the other two metronomes in Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera, two young studs at the position who are virtual locks for a plus batting average 35+ home runs, and gobs of runs and RBI. There’s not much to say here other than, since this is a deep position, it’s worth considering comparable middle infielders over these guys – just look how long and balanced this list is.

The third tier has three players that could, in the right year, outperform guys in the second tier. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Adrian Gonzalez have all had years with power production that has eclipsed that of the two players above them. But they also have their issues. Fielder alternates medium-power years with high-power years, Howard won’t ever put in a plus batting average with his high strikeout rates, and Gonzalez would be more exciting if only he could get his batting average out of the ‘neutral’ territory and into ‘plus’ like the guys in tier two. Maybe, when he walks fewer times with his next team as Dave Cameron seems to have predicted, his BABIP will also regress to his career levels and his batting average will rise, though it’s hard to predict anything more than a .280 number there.

The middle tier provides some real opportunity for value. Each and every member of this tier could easily hit .300 with 30 home runs and good run production next year. Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman and Kendry Morales have all done it before, and Kevin Youkilis has gotten about as close as you can get. Joey Votto seems poised to join their ranks with a full year of strong play. It’s also a well balanced tier – the aging sluggers on their way down sit in front of Youkilis, who seems to have found his niche with a good batting average and modest power for a first baseman. Votto and Morales sit behind him until they prove they can consistently provide more power.

The next tier is called the ‘Dan Uggla‘ tier. These guys will give you power, but in rotisserie baseball you’ll also need to work hard to over come Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena’s poor batting averages. In head-to-head competition, their value increases because of the option of punting batting average, but in rotisserie you really need to try and compete in every category and their big minus signs are a dark cloud over the rest of their positive contributions.

The last tier could produce some tier-jumpers if the stars align. Should Derrek Lee continue to hit 45% of his balls in the air, he may jut hit another 30 home runs, which would put him in tier four. Billy Butler is still hitting too many worm-burners (47.7% groundballs career), but if can get a little lift into those balls, he’s shown that he’s a strong producer in batting average. At 30 years old, it seems that Adam LaRoche is a strong bet to continue producing at the same mediocre level going forward. He’ll probably drop off the list when a young guy steps forward next year and joins the crowd, but with the strikeout rates that Chris Davis (34.7% career) and Russell Branyan (38.9% career) sport, it’s hard to rely on them to even keep their jobs all year in 2010.

After an outstanding half season in 2008, Texas Rangers first baseman Chris Davis generated quite a bit of buzz leading into fantasy drafts in 2009. Davis hit .285/.331/.549 with 17 homers and 55 RBI in 80 games during his rookie campaign in 2008, causing fantasy owners to salivate like Pavlov’s dog. Davis was so hyped, that his status as a sleeper disappeared quickly, and his ADP rose.

Davis was eligible at 1B and 3B in ’09, and was drafted an average of 76th overall, good enough for seventh among 3B and 10th among 1B. Owners, such as myself, saw his raw power dominating in a deadly Texas lineup, and expected his average to hover around the .285 mark he posted in 2008.

What we didn’t see coming, was a devastating start to the 2009 season for Davis. In the first half of the season, Davis hit .202/.256/.415 with 15 homers. The power was still there, but he struck out 114 times in 277 plate appearances. Davis had always been a high strikeout hitter, with his career minor league rate at 25%, and a 29.8% rate in the bigs during ’08. However a 41.2% rate for the first half was scary enough to force the Rangers to consider sending Davis to the minors to work out his problems.

Sure enough, a few days into July, Davis was optioned to Triple-A. He seemed to right the ship while he was there, hitting .327/.418/.521 in 44 games, striking out only 20% of the time and hitting 6 homers. The Rangers felt he was ready to give the bigs another shot, so they recalled him at the end of August. Upon returning, Davis hit .308/.338/.496 with 6 homers in a little over a month. He struck out 25.3% in the second half (36 in 142 PA), much more in line with his career averages. His power may have diminished, but he still drove in 26 runs in 36 games.

What helped bring Davis out of his funk was his ability to simply make contact with the ball. Before being sent down, he has a swing rate of 53.8% and a 22.6% whiff rate according to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/x tool. The same tool said he swung at 52.9% of his pitches after being recalled, with a 14% whiff rate. His opponents pitch selection remained constant in both cases, and after being recalled Davis put fastballs in play at twice the rate that he had before hand.

It all boils down to one question: What should I expect from Davis in 2010? I think that his second half numbers will transfer over into the start of 2010, with his home run rate rising closer to what it was in ’08. To make a quick prediction, I would guess he hits ~.280 with 31 homers if he holds on to the full time 1B job. He may not get to play every day, with the Rangers likely to call up Justin Smoak and looking for a big RH in free agency that could plug the DH role, but I bet they try to find a way to get his bat into the lineup

Davis will be eligible at first base in every league, with added 3B eligibility in others. Due to a scary showing early on last year, he should be falling into a nice ADP where you should feel comfortable snatching him up and playing him everyday.

The 2009 Kansas City Royals were an offensive disaster. Collectively, K.C. batters compiled -66.2 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs, worst in the American League. The Royals continued to hack wildly at the dish, with the second-lowest walk rate in the Junior Circuit. Not coincidentally, the club posted the second-highest outside-swing percentage in the A.L.

There’s plenty of disappointment to go around. Curious trade acquisition Mike Jacobs was sub-replacement-level for the second consecutive season. Jose Guillen made $12M while being a full two wins below replacement-level. Would-be savior Alex Gordon was derailed by hip surgery.

Not all was lost, however. While many of his teammates were making outs at a dizzying pace, Billy Butler took steps toward becoming an All-Star-caliber hitter.

We chronicled Butler’s career last offseason, noting his stratospheric .336/.416/.561 minor league line. Kansas City’s 2004 first-round draft pick had a mild age-22 season in 2008 (.275/.324/.400, .318 wOBA), due mostly to a tepid performance against right-handers and a high groundball rate for a 6-2, 240 pound guy with minimal speed.

The future looked extremely bright for Butler, though, given his superb minor league track record. And in 2009, he began to show to strong secondary skills which made him a top prospect.

In 2008, Butler appeared to take a contact-oriented approach at the plate. He put the bat on the ball 93.3% of the time on pitches within the strike zone, well above the 88 percent MLB average. That led to a very low punch out rate (12.9 K%), but the contact might have come at the expense of some power. Butler posted a middle infielder-like .124 ISO, while going yard on just 8.2% of his fly balls hit.

Butler didn’t put much of a charge in those fly balls, with a .440 slugging percentage in 2008 (the A.L. average was .566).

In 2009, by contrast, Butler waited for his pitch more often. His P/PA increased from 3.6 to 3.9, with his first-pitch strike percentage dipping from 58.6% in ’08 (right around the MLB average) to 53.6% in ’09. Butler didn’t make as much contact within the strike zone (88.6 percent), which led to a higher K rate (16.9 percent). However, the 23 year-old did far more damage when he did connect.

Butler’s ISO jumped to .191, with his HR/FB rate climbing to 11.9 percent. He slugged .776 on fly balls (.603 A.L. average). Billy still hit more grounders than one would like to see (47.3 percent), but there are plenty of positives here.

Kansas City’s first baseman continued to annihilate lefties, with a 150 sOPS+ (sOPS+ compares a batter’s performance in a given spit to the league average; 100 is average for a hitter, below 100 is below-average and above 100 is above-average). But he was no slouch against right-handers either, with a 121 sOPS+. In other words, Butler was 50 percent better than the league average vs. southpaws, and 21 percent above the norm against righties.

His more restrained plate approach also led to more free passes. Butler increased his walk rate from 6.9 percent in 2008 to 8.7 percent this past year. That’s more in line with what we saw in the minors, when he drew a free pass in 11.5 percent of his PA.

Overall, Butler improved his wOBA to .369, while posting a .301/.362/.492 line. He’s not an elite option at first base (not when the MLB average at the position was .277/.362/.483 in 2009, but he could yet become an offensive force. Butler turns just 24 in April.

Target Butler on draft day. He could provide the punch of some more well-known first basemen, but at a lower price tag.