It’s hard to believe that it’s that time of year again — the start of a new baseball season and the return of the deep league waiver wire. Ownership rates are sometimes dramatically different depending on the league site, so it’s always a little difficult to determine what pool of players to choose from for recommending. Just like in previous years, I will only consider players owned in 10% or less of leagues on CBS.
A few weeks back I talked about how I wasn’t huge on Eric Hosmer this year, with one of the bigger reasons being Brandon Belt’s draft spot. To me, while he is a slightly poor man’s version, Belt provides much higher upside with much lower downside. I drafted him two leagues this season, one as a UTIL option behind Jose Abreu and one as the primary 1B with Matt Adams as my primary backup. While I have confidence in him this season, I do think it would be a bit aggressive to own only him as a first base option in a standard format.
Read the rest of this entry »
When it comes to analyzing minor league players, it is certainly important to consider both the statistics they compile and the connection between that performance and the visual/mechanical elements of their process behind the numbers. However, if there’s one group of prospects who can be effectively analyzed (in a shorthanded fashion) from a purely statistical standpoint, it’s probably first base prospects. In general, they’re below-average defenders–none of the 25 qualified first basemen in 2013 posted a positive FanGraphs Defense value, after all–and as a result, they are held to extremely high offensive standards. Evaluating a first base prospect, then, often comes down to a simple method: If he hits, he’s interesting, and if he doesn’t, he’s not.
Applying this crude method to White Sox first base prospect Rangel Ravelo probably would lead many toward the second conclusion. Ravelo’s not entirely off the radar–he hit .312/.393/.455 with High-A Winston-Salem this year as a 21-year-old, enough to slot him into the final slot on Baseball America’s top 30 White Sox prospects. But he’s a first baseman who is a career .298/.359/.402 hitter–that’s a meager .104 Isolated Power and just seven home runs in 1179 plate appearances since being drafted in sixth round in 2010 out of a Florida high school.
The logical conclusion to draw, then, is that Ravelo, while perhaps a talented hitter, is never going to have the power required to make an impact given what’s likely to be little defensive ability. Then again, maybe the visual/mechanical aspect still retains importance for first basemen, because it paints a very different picture of Ravelo than his production does.
First base is a funny position. A whole bunch of them are drafted over the first couple of rounds and all of a sudden you realize it’s only round four and already nine of them are off the board. Without having filled your first base slot, panic sets in. Oh no! Don’t let me get stuck with James Loney.
The first base edition of Pod’s Picks may help you find value or learn who to avoid at their current going rate. The bullish section will only include players from my top 20, while the bearish group will only include those whose RotoGraphs consensus is in the top 20.
Either I do way too many mock drafts and have personally skewed the ADP numbers everywhere or the word is out. Mark Trumbo is a hot commodity this season. Though his positioning found here in our “consensus rankings” at both first base and in the outfield doesn’t exactly scream, “You want Mark Trumbo,” I firmly believe that you do. Read the rest of this entry »
The dreaded sophomore slump.* It can turn even the most prominent rookies into pumpkins. Despite a promising rookie season, Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo failed to live up to lofty expectations. A year later, Rizzo won’t be depended on for elite production. And given the abundance of options at first base, Rizzo is likely to be one of the last starters at the position to be snatched up. Meaning, he’s being viewed as a fall-back option in most leagues. Given some of the indications, he could be much more than that in 2014.
That’s two good years and one bad year for Eric Hosmer. The one bad year, which was really his first full season in the majors, still wasn’t too bad from a fantasy standpoint as he still managed to hit 14 home runs and steal 16 bases. Hosmer is essentially a Paul Goldschmidt-lite, due to his ability to contribute in the steals category while many of his counterpoints give nothing in that department.
Read the rest of this entry »
Here’s a super easy post, I’ll admit it. All I did was take the difference between my rankings and the consensus rankings (which you can find on the right-hand nav bar) and sort. But I’ll do a little writeup for each group of hitters so you can know why I like them. The numbers listed for each player are steamer projections, which aren’t exactly what I used, but can give you an idea of how useful the player will be in your league. Good luck drafting.
It certainly looks like he is in a decline phase. Last year was his least productive season on a per plate appearance rate and also in aggregate overall value. He didn’t reach 100 games played as he battled plantar fasciitis all season, he didn’t hit over 20 home runs, and he didn’t even hit .260.
Read the rest of this entry »
Time for the first basemen! At least one entrant here will cause some consternation, but it’s probably a good time to remember that the bar for offense at first base is incredibly high. The 15th-ranked first baseman this year might hit .275 with 30 homers. Heck, the 20th-rhanked guy could do that.
So enjoy this list twice. They’ll probably fill two (to three) positions on your roster.