RotoGraphs Consensus Ranks: First Base
Time for the first basemen! At least one entrant here will cause some consternation, but it’s probably a good time to remember that the bar for offense at first base is incredibly high. The 15th-ranked first baseman this year might hit .275 with 30 homers. Heck, the 20th-rhanked guy could do that.
So enjoy this list twice. They’ll probably fill two (to three) positions on your roster.
Rankings based on 5×5 roto, 12 teams, single-catcher with Middle Infield and Corner Infield spots, 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Each ranker had their own mix of projections and intuition.
| RG | Name | Jeff | Zach | Mike | Eno |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Chris Davis | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Prince Fielder | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | Joey Votto | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 6 | Freddie Freeman | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Eric Hosmer | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| 8 | Anthony Rizzo | 7 | 9 | 10 | 7 |
| 9 | Albert Pujols | 8 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| 10 | David Ortiz | 10 | 10 | 7 | 12 |
| 11 | Adrian Gonzalez | 11 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| 12 | Billy Butler | 12 | 8 | 17 | 11 |
| 13 | Allen Craig | 13 | 13 | 12 | 18 |
| 14 | Mark Trumbo | 14 | 14 | 13 | 17 |
| 15 | Jose Abreu | 15 | 20 | 14 | 13 |
| 16 | Brandon Belt | 18 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 17 | Matt Adams | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 18 | Kendrys Morales | 19 | 18 | 20 | 15 |
| 19 | Victor Martinez | 22 | 23 | 19 | 20 |
| 20 | Brandon Moss | 24 | 15 | 18 | 28 |
| 21 | Adam Lind | 23 | 19 | 24 | 19 |
| 22 | Mark Teixeira | 21 | 22 | 21 | 21 |
| 23 | Nick Swisher | 20 | 21 | 26 | 24 |
| 24 | Chris Carter | 17 | 31 | 25 | 25 |
| 25 | Mike Napoli | 26 | 28 | 22 | 23 |
| 26 | Yonder Alonso | 27 | 25 | 27 | 22 |
| 27 | Justin Morneau | 28 | 24 | 23 | 27 |
| 28 | Adam Dunn | 25 | 27 | 31 | 30 |
| 29 | Mitch Moreland | 29 | 29 | 29 | 26 |
| 30 | James Loney | 34 | 26 | 30 | 29 |
| 31 | Ryan Howard | 30 | 30 | 33 | 31 |
| 32 | Adam LaRoche | 31 | 33 | 28 | 33 |
| 33 | Ike Davis | 35 | 32 | 34 | 32 |
| 34 | Logan Morrison | 32 | 34 | 37 | 35 |
| 35 | Justin Smoak | 33 | 35 | 36 | 34 |
| 36 | Garrett Jones | 36 | 36 | 35 | 36 |
| 37 | Lucas Duda | 38 | 37 | 40 | 37 |
| 38 | Gaby Sanchez | 37 | 40 | 38 | 39 |
| 39 | Paul Konerko | 39 | 38 | 39 | 40 |
| 40 | Daric Barton | 40 | 39 | 40 | 40 |
Other players ranked by one analyst: Mike Carp, Nate Freiman, Jesus Guzman, Darin Ruf, Kyle Blanks, Japhet Amador, and Andrew Lambo.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Mauer, Morneau?
Morneau is there. I made the executive decision not to rank Mauer here. One more year of catcher. I’d personally make Mauer my 14th-ranked first baseman.
No Hart?
Will gather numbers from the rankers. I’d have him ahead of Loney and behind Morneau.
Seems like not a huge difference between numbers 8 or so and number 25ish – less upside with guys like Napoli and Swisher than Pujols or Rizzo, but everyone in that range seems to be pretty good but with at least one questions mark – Power (craig/butler/gonzalez), BA (trumbo/napoli), injuries (pujols, teixeira), etc.
i agree. if i dont get an elite first basemen, ill wait til later in the draft where there’s plenty of options
Carlos Santana?
Basically same projection as Mitch Moreland.
it really seems to me that projections are undermining jose abreu’s potential batting average. i know the cuban numbers aren’t a good comp because of the many inconsistencies pointed out on this website, but the guy can hit for average. he’s going to play everyday, and if his pop is real, i have no problem putting him at least as my #12 1B.
Hey buck I’m with you. I’m on board with Abreu playing half his games in a dong friendly park, and the reports on this fellow are that he is quite a natural. Might be similar to a slightly larger, right hand only, and younger version of Kendrys Morales. Reports are he really clobbers the nut.
Dong? Where is my automobile?
Who talks like that?
I think Matt Adams is WAY overrated. A mitigating factor is that he’ll be playing for possibly the best team in baseball.
Hmmm….seems about right to me. What kind of year are you projecting for him?
just for kicks…mark reynolds?
Miguel Cabrera? Two-time league MVP. Maybe you’ve heard of him?
Dunno about your league, but (like Mauer at C) Cabrera is much more valuable as a 3B in mine.
Third Baseman?
Maybe youve heard that the 2 time league MVP didnt play first base last year, and will not qualify as a 1B to open the season in any fantasy leagues?
Which will change after what… 5 days in most leagues? The more important point is that his production at 3B is more valuable.
Well… I may not be QUITE as skilled as Eno… but I have him just ahead of EVERYONE aside from sliced bread.
This is for everyone….stop asking where Mauer, Santana, etc go in a listing of 1B. They go in your catcher spot while you still can…
Some of us owners have the luxury of having made smart moves and may not be playing in 2 catcher leagues. Maybe some folks wonder if Mike Napoli or Carlos Santana would be better off in our CI slot. Assuming always makes an ass out of you first and in this case only you. Every team and league is different. Some teams do not have the flexibility to just play a guy at C instead. Maybe they can’t get a better 1B. Maybe you shouldn’t criticize people’s questions when you have no clue the context or their need for the info they request. Have some respect dude.
I still laugh to myself as I recall the last “consensus first base rankings” released on this site. If my memory serves correct Albert Pujols was ranked 2nd or 3rd. This ranking was released after he had missed about a month of baseball and had no time table to return. As much as I love FG and all they have to offer I must say their rankings really aren’t very useful. Certainly not as useful as they should be when you consider their origins.
Ahh I get it now. Pastors are just used to telling people what to do and what to think. Carry on.
We showed love for an injured hall of famer with a great track record for a month too long and we’re useless.
I do not think rankings are rendered useful or useless by their correlation to your beliefs. In fact, the difference makes them useful.
We are well known for being tied to projection systems, and therefore move slower than intuition. Thats useful 70% of the time.
I didn’t mean any offense and I certainly never stated that FG’s rankings are “useless”. Just that they aren’t as useful as they could or should be imo. For example leaving off all the C eligible 1Bs is not very helpful for ranking players in leagues that use CI positions. We all know that players are more valuable at shallower positions but considering your ranking is specifically for SINGLE catcher plus MI and CI it really makes a ton of sense to have included the C eligible 1Bs. A team in such a league could easily have 2 top 100 players eligible at C.
My apologies for any offense and my poor choice of words. I appreciate very much the work that is put into FG and I’ve been a daily visitor for years. I love baseball and no other place on the web (or in the universe for that matter) really KNOWS baseball quite like FG. But I do have to admit that a lot of the consensus rankings I’ve seen on here just seem flat out weird sometimes. Yes I understand that they are very heavily weighted by projections. I guess they just seem way off base from a what I would call a “consensus” of the various sources on the web. It certainly doesn’t make them useless.
I guess I’ve never found a good reason to play a catcher in a CI spot even in my deep redrafts. I could see it in a keeper. I’ll include them from here on out. Thanks!
As far as this ranking, I like it better than the last 1B ranking on here. I’d bump Matt Adams up a few spots and Rizzo down at least 10 in a redraft. Maybe nudge Hosmer down a couple too but after the top 5 they’re all very close anyway. Belt, Butler, Hosmer, Freeman, AGone, I’d be happy with any of them in the middle rounds. Overall I like it.
I don’t really understand the Joey Votto hate. I think ranking him behind Fielder is head scratching.
He is a 25-30 HR guy with an excellent average,OBP, a solid bet for 100 Runs, and close to 100 RBIs with a couple SB.
He had a career bad year with RISP and I don’t think that will continue. I think if Billy Hamilton can somehow manage to get on base, Votto will be seeing a lot of fastballs or have a man on second ready to score.
Being ranked 5th isn’t an insult, 4 other players are simply projected to be better. They are all a much more sure bet for 100/30/100 than Votto.
He also had the best OBP in the league batting ahead of him, which he won’t have this year.
There nothing head scratching at all about it. The dude had 73 RBI with an OBP machine in Choo hitting in front of him. He only hit 24 jacks last year and was pacing to hit less than that before getting hurt in 2012. He’s not a threat to steal double digit bases anymore. I think #5 in a standard league that uses BA and not OBP is actually pretty generous. He’s a fringe top ten guy in my eyes.
Posey? Most have him ranked at 9ish
Not really feeling the Hosmer love. He has a pretty spotty track record including last year. Also first baseman usually don’t continue to steal bases as they age. He was terrible in the first half last year as well that sophomore year.
Diminished stolen base numbers with middling power. Meh
he was plagued by a bad babip in 2012. his power is frustrating.. he owned one of the longest avg fly ball distances last year but his FB% was too low. in the 2nd half, it crept upwards and you saw the results with 8 homers in 279 AB’s (29.1% fb rate vs 21.6% in the 1st half).
my only beef is im suprised teixiera is above safer and productive players such as swisher, carter, and napoli(Albeit, its not a consensus). Hell, I would even take Morneau and Loney over the player that used to be Tex
It’s been well documented that Tex’s wrist issues aren’t going away. He said his wrist is still tight and will be until at least June and possibly all season. I am personally staying away from him. Too much risk for me.
To rank Eric Hosmer as the 6th best 1B suggests major drug use. Aren’t you “experts” tired of being wrong on him? .302 avg last year was the result of a 2nd half Babip of .368, way above his carer average. Groundball rate of 53, hard to project him to over 20 HRs. He is Brandon Belt with 5-7 more steals.
Steals are valuable. My personal projection, which prefers to look at year-long samples instead of chopping up his work into smaller samples, has him at .289/20/9. Seems reasonable to me, even takes into account stealing less. Healthy young player that plays more often than Brandon Belt, who gets sat a lot, and was on a better offense last year, so his R/RBI are consistently higher too.
Kind of useless if Miguel Cabrera is nowhere to be seen on the list. If I’m not mistaken, it’s been expected that he will be playing first base all season.
I don’t think we can rank a guy at a position he’s not eligible at in any fantasy game. Things change too often. Should we rank Carlos Santana at third? Marcus Semien at short? Obviously these aren’t as locked down as Miggie to first, but the point is, he’s not eligible there now, so even if you drafted him as your first baseman, you’d have to find another one. And the best policy is to wait until something actually happens to react to it, IMO.
Can’t you work out where to rank him yourself if you want to use him as a first baseman?
agreed Evan. It’s a HUGE detractor from this list to not just have Cabrera at number 1 and then every other player adjusted down one number.
Useless?
Just put him at the top of this list and add one to all of the other ranks if you’re terribly concerned about it.
I should really read other comments before making my own.
While your at it I better see Machado on the SS rankings, Jeter on the 3B/OF rankings, and Sandoval back on the C rankings… GAWD I HATE THIS FAMILY! *runs up stairs, slams door, buries head in pillow and cries.
Come on, dude… is this really worth fretting over? My grandmother, god rest her sole, could place Miggy on this list.
Eno, why so low on B-Moss?
I think he’ll platoon and see some power regression, BABIP regression, have a poor BA and 25ish HR?
Just curious about LaRoche. I know he’s coming off a bad season and he’s getting up there in age, but one year away from a 33/100 season. I’m not expecting that, but wondering for reasons why you feel he can’t get back to, say 25/85 and a decent average, with full playing time? His BABIP was also .277 last year compared to a career .305 mark. I also see that Steamer projects him for only 113 games? Am I missing something (quite possibly)?Thanks in advance.
Something I’m wondering, not in an accusatory way, but a curiousity way: Why is Prince Fielder above E3? E3’s had a lot more power the past two years, hits for a very solid average with great walk skills, has gotten more runs and RBIs than Fielder the past few years and he even steals some bases to boot, having stolen 7 and 13 the past two years (And 8 the year before). Even Fielder’s 2011 power season basically had HRs only around equal to E3’s last year. Is it injury concerns or something?
A-Gon looks like good value, he’s only a 20-25 HR hitter now but he hits for an excellent average and has a good RBI spot. If you miss out on the elite 1B, he seems like a good option.
The Texas factor.
is there even a texas factor anymore? i thought it basically went away with the new construction… According to stat corner, LHB in Comerica had a 2% greater boost to home runs than LHB in Arlington last year. Even if that was fluky, it seems it would be a negligible difference.
I agree that EE is superior to Fielder; however, it’s really semantics as either guy could outproduce each other. I’d say the tier 2 guys start at Prince and end at Votto so they could easily be switched.
I’m not sure if complaining about Jeff’s robo-rankings has gone out of style, but Rizzo over Freeman is pretty silly. Freeman is the better hitter in the better lineup; this isn’t rocket science.
Pujols seems low. I mean if he’s fully healthy, which is being reported, you’re looking at a guy that is .280/30/100. That’s E5 minus 4-5 steals. I’d probably draft him over Rizzo and Freeman, maybe Hosmer in redraft leagues this year. Why is FG so low on him?
I hope anybody that has Rizzo ranked higher than Pujols, Ortiz, Craig and Jose Abreu is in my league.
Says the guy in 2012… who was also REALLY high on Abreu.
Kendrys Morales over Allen Craig, Eno?