2014 Pod’s Picks: 1st Base
First base is a funny position. A whole bunch of them are drafted over the first couple of rounds and all of a sudden you realize it’s only round four and already nine of them are off the board. Without having filled your first base slot, panic sets in. Oh no! Don’t let me get stuck with James Loney.
The first base edition of Pod’s Picks may help you find value or learn who to avoid at their current going rate. The bullish section will only include players from my top 20, while the bearish group will only include those whose RotoGraphs consensus is in the top 20.
Bullish
My Rank: 18 | Consensus: 23
Sure he’s only a platoon player, but he’s got some serious wallop in his bat. For the second straight season, he finished with a batted ball distance of about 295 feet, while in all four years he has appeared on the leaderboard, he has never averaged less than 292 feet. My projection that led to this ranking calls for more of the same and I would imagine that my RotoGraphs brethren are expecting a small step backwards. Though he won’t start against lefties, he should still get more than 500 plate appearances, so some additional playing time would further boost his counting stats and offset any potential regression in his skill rates.
My Rank: 7 | Consensus: 11
Everyone, including me, has been waiting for signs of decline and they just refuse to show themselves. Remember many years ago when Ortiz got off to a slow start and everyone claimed he was done and that his bat speed had slowed? Yeah, good call. I challenge you to find any underlying skill that hints that a decline is imminent. I am projecting a small step backward, but a barely noticeable one. At his age, you have to think there’s greater risk of injury, but aside from 2012, he’s been remarkably healthy.
My Rank: 8 | Consensus: 12
I did not expect this one. Because he’s no longer a 30-40 home run guy, I think he gets lost in the shuffle and may have become undervalued. He still hits cleanup in a solid lineup, is a near lock to contribute positive value in batting average, and should still be at least replacement level win his home run production. Given another year away from his shoulder issues and a rebound in his xHR/FB rate after a down 2012, I am projecting better power this year.
Bearish
My Rank: 17 | Consensus: 10
This is a surprise. Butler was supremely disappointing last year after his long awaited home run breakout in 2012. Rather than treat 2013 as closer to the norm, it seems like the rest of the rankers believe that 2012 is actually closer to Butler’s true talent. He simply doesn’t hit enough fly balls to reach the upper 20s in home runs again and that fly ball rate has finished below 30% for two straight years now. The surrounding offense isn’t that great, he’s slow as molasses which reduces his runs scored total, and you’re really just left with a good batting average and a decent, albeit unspectacular, RBI total.
My Rank: 24 | Consensus: 19
I would have never guessed that I was more pessimistic on Lind than others. But I guess it makes some sense. His batting average is due for a decline given his inflated 2013 BABIP. His HR/FB rate has bounced around throughout his career, making it difficult to peg a true talent level. But his 2013 mark was the second highest of his career, so you gotta figure some regression there. He’s not going to play against lefties, or at least do anything productive against them. If he could reverse his tumbling fly ball rate trend, maybe his power stays constant and he comes close to the consensus ranking.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
with you on all the bulls. i happen to like lind as well
lind is worth a flyer late as a platoon UTIL or 1st basemen in deeper leagues. even if he regresses a bit, he’s still going to hit 20 homers, knock in 70 and hit .270. the difference between him and moss is a trade off of some avg vs some power. the counting counts weigh more in moss’s side but if the jays can stay healthy (that’s a big if) then lind should have plenty of chances for RBI’s. lind hit .309 against righties last year and wont be taken til well after the 200th pick
Funny to see Lind and Moss be this close (which I agree). Our auction league ($500 cap, 24 roster spots) just saw Moss go for $30 while I got Lind for $1. I am planning on using him as my DH/UT spot and can’t think of a better way to get cheap HR. So much easier to get cheap power stats at DH/UT from the 1B position even though 3B is a very deep pool right now.
But his nickname is Country Breakfast…COUNTRY BREAKFAST!!!
Best nickname in all of baseball.
I’m digging on some of Pod’s Picks here but have to say that I do see a rebound for Butler this year. He’s not going to reach the level of 2012, but a happy medium of 18-20 home runs is what I’m thinking.
Gravy Boat? Is that you?
I can easily see Butler reaching 20 HR’s again, though I’m not counting on anything more than that. Combine that with a .300 average, very good OBP, and decent RBI totals and I like the guy as a CI. I use him as my primary 1B in both of my keeper leagues which factor in OBP making him much more valuable there than in the standard 5×5 leagues that the rankings are based off of.
I still like Butler too, albeit in points leagues for me. High batting average, high walk count, and low-ish strikeouts play well at the low end of the top 10 first basemen there.
Ditto. Great points leagues player.
Butler & Ortiz aren’t 1B eligible in ESPN which has a major effect on either value. How many sites give them 1B eligibility?
I know Yahoo does. With all the interleague play those guys should get at least 5-10 starts at 1B, so you have to look at where your league’s cutoff is.
Also, it seems like every young potential power hitter on the Royals was a major disappointment last year. Could it be their flawed organizational hitting strategy? I will be staying away from Royals hitters for next year at least.
IIRC, the Royals had a strategy of put the ball in play with a deemphasis on HR’s, which may have been part of the problem
I think Eno nailed it, ranking him right behind hosmer. If you buy into the reports that their going to put him at first more, and he gains the eligibility, how much different are the two? Considering the ADP of Hosmer, makes Butler look much more attractive.
With Butler DH-only in the majority of leagues, give me Victor Martinez however many rounds later anyday…
i lost the link to where i can find batted ball distance. where do i find these?
http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/
Quick Side note, Looking to fill out the rest of a new Ottoneu League (This is Fantasy Baseball). Auction Draft, Fangraphs Points, group arbitration $99, draft on 3/23. Email me at garettmarcum@gmail.com
goddamnit, Garret, no one cares.
Mike, can you give me a rank on where Mauer would fall in the first base rankings if you were going to use him as a first baseman?
I’m in a keeper league where I’m already set at catcher (C. Santana) but Mauer is likely going to be the most valuable player available to me in the draft (by far). I will likely take him and try to flip him, but in the meantime, I’ll be playing Mauer (or Santana) at 1B, so I’m trying to get a sense of where Mauer would rank there.
Seriously, I’m not going to bother to give you a rank because it would be beyond silly to start him at 1B. If you have a C, don’t draft him. Period. He cannot possibly be the most valuable player to you if you are valuing him as a first baseman.
Good point about Butler’s baserunning. I realized last year, having Dunn, Ortiz, and Butler all on the same team, that having your big sluggers removed for pinch-runners can seriously reduce your R totals, too. It also often leads to missed plate appearances later in games. Included that factor into my projections this year, and I think it leads to sensible PA and R totals for those types of players.