Betting on an Albert Pujols Rebound
It certainly looks like he is in a decline phase. Last year was his least productive season on a per plate appearance rate and also in aggregate overall value. He didn’t reach 100 games played as he battled plantar fasciitis all season, he didn’t hit over 20 home runs, and he didn’t even hit .260.
With that said, I am betting on Pujols this year. I put a bid on him in our staff ottoneu league last week and got him at $19. I already had Chris Davis at $25, so I am banking on Pujols being my utility option and a backup first base option were anything to happen to Davis. For some comparison, Mark Trumbo is owned at $19, Freddie Freeman is owned at $21, and Nick Swisher is owned at $18.
Freeman is probably the best bet to provide the most value in that dollar range, but I like the upside of Pujols here more than the rest. I have seen some similarities in actual drafts and in mocks, with guys like Eric Hosmer going before Pujols. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t hate the concept of avoiding a guy coming off of his worst season ever that has had two consecutive seasons of lower than usual production – not to mention coming off of a substantial injury. Even so, I think Pujols is a guy that a lot of winning fantasy teams will have on their roster at year’s end.
He is a bet worth taking. Like taking a bet on a high upside young player that you think is going to produce. In the past few weeks I have preached on the value of consistency and how I feel players, including the aforementioned Swisher, are somewhat undervalued because of their limited upside.
The importance of drafting a guy like Pujols is having a quality hedge as well. If you are going with Pujols as your first baseman, I strongly advise drafting a solid 1B as your utility option if that is how your league works. Even if Pujols does run into injuries again this season, 130 or so games of Pujols – as Steamer projects – plus your hedge could make up for a top flight first baseman at a very low cost in comparison to what some of the elite guys are going for.
Steamer projects 138 games with 30 home runs and 97 RBI. That is some serious value in under 140 games. Hitting behind the best player in baseball certainly helps, and a potential upswing from Josh Hamilton’s down year behind him along with the addition of David Freese and Raul Ibanez could lead to his run totals coming back closer to his St. Louis levels rather than the lesser numbers he has posted the past two seasons.
I don’t expect Pujols to ever be what he was when he was in St. Louis, but I do expect a solid average around the .280-.290 range and a lot of power. Aside from last season Pujols has been one of the healthier players in baseball since entering the league. I have little question that his foot injury sapped most of his power, and he still managed 17 home runs in under 500 plate appearances. Pujols is certainly risk, but in my mind he is a risk worth taking.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
Just because his name is Pujols.
His name is tied to his numbers. The guy is going crazy low in every mock I’ve made, he should produce some value numbers, and has one hell of an upside.
convince me?
This guy is toast like a roast.
Looks like you missed the bus Gus!
dang it. i hate being late to school.
maybe im still scorn from trading for pujols on the day he went down last year, but im not feeling the love. too much risk that early in the draft when you can take a guy like agon later. at best i think pujols repeats 2012, which is nice, just not worth banking on so early.
C’mon, you’ve got to at least sprinkle some stats in here to make this a FG article right?
Here’s what the sell in my mind
1) .258 BAPIP — Pujols has a career .306 BAPIP, even if you assume there is some decline in that number, .258 is pretty bad luck compared to reasonable glide path for his stats. A correction towards the league average BAPIP of .297, say maybe .290 for Pujols, would push his AVG up 20+ pts.
2) 70pt AVG OBP spread — Pujols has always been an OBP machine, because he doesn’t K often and takes a walk well. Again he won’t get the respect he has in the past without HRs, but even last year he maintained a 72pt spread between his AVG and OBP. If you assume that spread sticks, as his peripherals indicate, he should see an increase in Runs both in absolute and Run/PA basis.
3) Project cleanup hitter — Great article on Razzball about lineup position and R/RBI totals, in short, a full season of the 2013 Pujols should net 105 RBI, if his AVG goes up, that number should be 110, Factored for games off he’s a lock for 100RBI with148 games
I wonder if a bit of the bad BABIP number was the plantar facitis. He played a lot of the games last year looking like he would never make it to first base when he left home plate. A slow jog seemed to be his top speed, and that looked painful.
“Ya know, BAPIP: Batting Average on Pauls In Play. BAPIP”
“Aside from last season Pujols has been one of the healthier players in baseball since entering the league.”
I know what you mean, but what you said is wrong. Pujols has had nagging injuries most of his career (mostly elbow and heel), but he plays lots of games anyway. The main reason he initially moved to 1B was concern for his elbow. For his career, he is very durable (plays lots of games) but not healthy.
I’m not sure this alters his status as one of the healthier players in baseball. Baseball players are like marathon runners – they’re all injured, it’s just a matter of who can stay on the field.
If I had a choice between drafting pujols and leaving my computer to pour myself a glass of oj, i’d probably go for the oj.
Let’s say hypothetically that Pujols was three years older. How would that affect the projection?
I see what you did there…
Seriously, is there one projector – one single one anywhere – whose actually done a hypothetical ‘what if he is older’ projection for Pujols? Talk about your Groupthink.
His aging curve would make all the sense in the world if he were 3 years older than his listed age.
He gets a mulligan for last year as far as I’m concerned. His floor hasn’t cratered (he was on his way to a typical Pujols-esque season before he was forced to’em up) and the upside is still too valuable to ignore, especially in rounds 2-4 where I’ve seen him go. Of all the gambles, this one still feels on the safer side to me. But if he limps through this season then I’ll agree — it’s straight downhill from there.
Typical Pujols season? Pass me what you’re smoking he was terrible.
I’m interested by the huge drop in his walk rate the past three years. He was above 10% BBs for his entire career and then all of a sudden he turned into a free swinger. What’s the deal with that?
Maybe lower bat speed -> less reaction time -> swinging earlier and less time to determine where the ball is heading?
It’s a lot easier to be selective when no one is pitching to you. 40+ HR power led to a lot of guys pitching away from him; move to 20HR and guys can hit more of the plate.
If Pujols had been able to tough outthe season he still would have gone 30/100. He was on pace to do it. At his ADP (yahoo 45, espn 51) he’ll be a bargain.
I guess I need to be convinced that Pujols would be a better value pick than Dadid Ortiz, particularly in a league where Ortiz is 1B eligible.
It all depends if he goes back on The Juice.
Good article here. I also think it’s worth mentioning that we aren’t dealing with a normal player here. Everyone wants to give him the normal aging regression, but this guy is a generational talent–the best hitter I’ve seen since Bonds–and miles better than late-30-something players who’ve up-ticked and provided huge value over the past few years like Werth, Willingham, Beltran, and even David Ortiz.
I wouldn’t pick him over Ortiz if they’re both 1B eligible. Ortiz is doing some crazy hoodoo . . . or something more, chemical, to keep him elite.