Every year, fantasy analysts from around the country gather for a collection of leagues called Tout Wars. This year was the 27th season of Tout Wars. This year, I was in the 15-team mixed auction league where I finished second last season, losing the lead on the last day to Bret Sayre of Baseball Prospectus.
The Pre-Season Injury episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
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As of this weekend, all TGFBI leagues have completed drafting! We can now see the complete ADP from the largest industry fantasy baseball contest ever with 420 participants in 28 leagues! For a look at the complete ADP from all the leagues as well as individual draft boards, click here.
Let’s not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “Breakout”. These are guys I like at their market rate and have them outperforming their draft cost. Breakout, Sleeper, whatever your term is… these are the guys I like buying because they can deliver a strong profit.
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Kirby | SEA | SP | – | 33 | $25 |
| 2 | Evan Phillips | LAD | RP | – | 89 | $9 |
George Kirby is a Top 40 pick so we are dealing with small margins here to call him a breakout. He’s SP5 on my current rankings but will jump a spot to SP4 with the recent Gerrit Cole news. Kirby is in a tight SP8-10 window during early March drafts as you have to go to the decimals to separate the ADPs of Kirby, Pablo Lopez, and Tyler Glasnow. I’m obsessed with 80-grade command and can easily see a path toward more strikeouts as he further develops his arsenal entering his third MLB season. Even if his 23% K rate doesn’t jump, he’s one of the stronger bets for 200+ IP so he could still deliver a Top 20 K total.
Did you know that Baseball Reference lists one of Evan Phillips’s nicknames as High Leverage Honey Bun? That and that alone is why he’s on this list. OK fine, it’s not the only reason. Being the closer on one of the best teams in baseball coming off back-to-back elite seasons also drives my interest in Phillips. Some may be bothered by him only notching 24 SVs, but that didn’t stop him from being 5th best RP on the Auction Calcultor thanks to his tiny ratios (2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). I have no idea why he’s the 11th closer off the board… I’m taking maybe five guys ahead of him (Diaz, Duran, Hader, Clase, Doval).
This article looks at the predictive power of spring training statistics last year for hitters. It applies learnings from last year to highlight a few movers and shakers so far this spring (based on spring games through 3/13).
Angels
• The manager named Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning, and Chase Silseth to the starting rotation.
The Angels aren’t ready to name their Opening Day starter just yet but Washington said his five starters will be lefties Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Tyler Anderson and right-handers Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth. It’s not a surprise but Washington clarified his rotation because of the emergence of right-hander José Soriano, who is getting stretched out as a starter after a breakout rookie year in relief last season.
• José Soriano will continue to be stretched out as a starter.
For right-hander José Soriano, it was welcome news when he was told that he’d be stretched out as a starting pitcher this spring, as he wanted to give starting another chance even after his strong rookie season in relief last year.
Orioles
• Kolten Wong will play some third base.
The Orioles took Wong up on that offer on Friday night, when the 33-year-old made his professional debut at third base in a 4-3 win over the Tigers at Ed Smith Stadium.
Entering the night, Wong had played in 1,189 regular-season MLB games, 38 postseason contests, 320 Minor League games and 183 Spring Training exhibitions — and he hadn’t appeared at third base in any of them. Wong didn’t think he had played third in a game since his time at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, which he attended from 2009-11.
Rangers
• Evan Carter will not be platooned.
It’s clear that Carter — MLB Pipeline’s No. 5 overall prospect — isn’t going to platoon. And he’s confident in his own abilities to hit any type of pitching. In a small sample this spring, he’s gone 2-for-9 in Cactus League play, already doubling his total from the big leagues last season.
“He’s getting more and more comfortable, and that comes with reps that we’ve said he’s going to get,” Bochy said. “Yeah, it’s going well with him.”
Royals
• Alec Marsh is being built up as a starter.
How does Marsh fit on the 2024 Royals? He’s building up as a starter, but he could be in a variety of roles if he’s on the outside looking in at the five-man rotation. He could be used in long relief. The Royals could use an opener for him, like they did last year.
• Nick Pratto is healthy after dealing with injuries over the past two seasons.
Finally healthy after two years of fighting through hip and groin injuries, Pratto feels like himself again – and he’s hitting like it. He has a 1.032 OPS in seven games (19 at-bats) with just three strikeouts this spring, and he’s looked much more aggressive in the zone than last year, when he had a 22% called strike rate. That was the 10th-highest mark among 293 players with at least 300 plate appearances.
“I felt like I was hitting without a backside for a long time,” Pratto said. “Swinging at pitches I don’t normally swing at, having to sell out to certain areas. Taking balls I don’t normally take because I wasn’t able to control my body.
Twins
• David Festa is getting all buff.
And the final step in Festa’s development might be physical development.
“I get pretty sore just based on the fact that I’m not a big, muscular guy, so really, the volume has kind of allowed me to not be as sore in my legs and my arm,” Festa said. “I think that’s something that will help me throughout the season.”
Especially as Festa’s stuff has continued to tick up in his time with the Twins, he admits that he hasn’t tended to recover well after outings due to his frame, with his velocity not sustaining well at times in outings and deeper into the season due to fatigue.
With that in mind, the Twins connected Festa with a trainer close to home in New Jersey, and the right-hander went in five times a week for volume lifting, functional lifting and more unilateral work as part of his offseason strengthening program.
• Jose Miranda felt healthy around December and will focus on playing first base.
Meanwhile, Miranda said he began feeling healthy again around December. He spent most of the winter rehabbing and training at the club’s complex in Fort Myers, working to refine his swing and lock in his timing so that when camp opened, he could hit the ground running.
He’s 6-for-13 (.462) with two walks so far this spring and on Friday played five innings at first base, his first defensive action since the operation.
“He looks stronger physically than he did last spring, and pretty comfortable at the plate,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “He needs to go over to first base and handle that position, take ownership of that position. He needs to become a quality first baseman.”
White Sox
• Colson Montgomery is “really close” to joining the major league team.
Colson Montgomery, the White Sox No. 1 prospect and No. 9 overall per MLB Pipeline, was reassigned to Minor League camp as one of seven roster moves made prior to Monday’s loss.
But the shortstop is getting “really close” to the Majors, according to Grifol.
“It was a good conversation with him today,” said Grifol of Montgomery. “He’s obviously ultra talented. He does a lot of things right on the field. But one of the things I told him was that he’s always on the clock. What I mean by that is people always are looking at him.
• Eloy Jiménez adjusted his swing to get more lift.
There’s now an adjustment in Jiménez’s swing with his hands held higher, a suggestion made to him during the offseason by Amaury Nina, his godfather who also happens to be his hitting coach. It’s a way for Jiménez to combat a career 50.4 percent ground ball rate, according to Statcast, which has never been below 47.6 percent in a single season.
Braves
• Ronald Acuña Jr. plans to keep running.
Acuña produced MLB’s first 40-70 season when he hit 41 homers and stole 73 bases last year. Snitker has said this recent knee ailment won’t affect how aggressive Acuña is on the bases this year.
“He’s still young and he’s still at an age where he can still [steal a lot of bases],” Snitker said. “He’s going to reach a time where he’s going to slow down on his own. For now, you’ve just got to let a kid like that loose and let him play his game.”
Brewers
• Brice Turang will start at second base.
Manager Pat Murphy named Turang the starter at second base on Tuesday — right where the 24-year-old finished off his rookie season after serving as Milwaukee’s second baseman during the National League Wild Card Series.
“I think this kid’s gonna make a quantum leap,” Murphy said. “I think he’ll establish himself as an everyday player. I’m really confident.”
Cardinals
• Victor Scott II is not an option for one of the team’s outfield spots.
Prospect Victor Scott II doesn’t seem to be an option at this time.
“I think we have to be a little bit more patient with (Scott),” Mozeliak said. “Clearly he’s opened up some eyes early on, but we have three weeks of camp left, so a lot of time to still make some judgments and decisions.”
Cubs
• The team will try to pitch Shota Imanaga every sixth day.
What throws a little wrinkle into how the rotation plays out to start the season is Shota Imanaga’s schedule. Coming from Japan, Imanaga is accustomed to pitching every sixth day. Imanaga has remained on that schedule this spring and while Counsell has said they won’t go to a six-man rotation, there have been hints that they’ll be creative with how to get him some rest.
“He’s gonna be a starter,” Counsell said. “How often he pitches — we’re not going to make a special schedule for Shota, we’re going to make a schedule for our pitching staff.”
Giants
• Alex Cobb is ahead of schedule and won’t be put on the 60-day IL.
However, Cobb appears slightly ahead of schedule as he works back from last year’s hip labrum repair.
The veteran righty got through a 25-pitch bullpen session yesterday and will throw live batting practice early next week. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters that while the team will be cautious not to push Cobb too quickly, they’ve “probably sped (the timeline) up a little bit” based on his progress (via MLB.com). The team announced a six-month recovery timetable for Cobb to log game action of any kind when he underwent surgery on Halloween.
It now looks as if he could be on track for a minor league rehab assignment earlier than that. To this point, the Giants have kept him off the 60-day injured list — a move that would prevent him from pitching at the MLB level before May 27.
• Nick Ahmed has the inside track to be the team’s starting shortstop.
With less than three weeks to go until Opening Day, it’s beginning to look like Luciano may no longer have the inside track. The Giants’ No. 2 prospect was slowed by a hamstring issue early in camp, prompting the club to bring in two-time Gold Glove Award winner Nick Ahmed on Minor League deal last month.
…
Manager Bob Melvin said the Giants haven’t made a decision, but it felt notable that Ahmed started at shortstop in Thursday night’s game against the Dodgers, which featured most of the club’s regulars following Wednesday’s off-day.…
“The defense is what the priority was,” Melvin said. “We talked about infield defense. Chapman is here. But I think it’s [Ahmed’s] health. He had the shoulder thing, and we want to see what it looks like compared to the past. So far, so good. He’s also had big offensive years, too. It doesn’t surprise you when he hits the ball over the fence. He’s got a couple of those already.”
Marlins
• The team will split the catching duties between Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 and Nick Fortes fifty-fifty.
“I’m pretty confident Nick knows how to catch Luzardo, so I’m just trying to make sure everybody knows each other, and then make a decision maybe a week before camp breaks and to see exactly who’s going to get bulk and that type of thing,” Schumaker said. “I’ve got no problem pinch-hitting still, and they’re both going to play maybe the same day, whatever. Maybe the offensive profile just takes off. I don’t know. But I think to say it’s 50-50, I don’t know. It’s not a good answer for you right now, but it’s also [March 9] or whatever it is, so time will tell.”
Padres
• Dennis Lin of The Athletic believes Graham Pauley will fill in at third base while Manny Machado is the DH.
This was always a distinct possibility for Machado coming off right elbow extensor tendon repair. He will ease back, at some point, into regularly playing third base. In the meantime, Pauley has emerged as a strong contender to fill in at third base (and first base) in Machado’s defensive absence. Yes, between Pauley and Merrill — who essentially has been a roster lock for some time — the Padres could start two rookies on Opening Day with limited experience above Single A.
Pirates
• Oneil Cruz is healthy and hitting the ball hard.
[Cruz’s] first swing of the day was a 412-foot missile off a Max Castillo fastball, which left the bat at 116.6 mph.
In the Statcast era (since 2015), the only Pirate who has hit a harder homer was, of course, Cruz (117.5 mph on Aug. 29, 2022).
The next inning, Cruz was caught a bit off balance against a Castillo changeup. It didn’t matter, and he blasted that one 434 feet, leaving the bat at 114.4 mph.
Reds
• Nick Lodolo will be skipped the first time through the rotation.
Though Lodolo’s slow progression this spring won’t have him ready for the first turn through the rotation in the regular season, he is on schedule to join the Reds very soon thereafter. Cincinnati made investments in veterans Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez to support the rotation, but the biggest upside still exists in Lodolo and Hunter Greene shaking off last year’s injury issues and continuing their upward trajectory.
Rockies
Brenton Doyle’s swing has become more efficient.
The Rockies identified some mechanical adjustments Doyle could make toward the end of last season. It’s only early March, but the early returns have been good.
Doyle has focused on being more efficient with his swing, positioning his hands in such a way that he has a more direct path to the baseball. He’s also been keeping more weight on his back leg during his set-up at the plate.
“It’s about giving my eyes a little more time to react to pitches,” Doyle said. “And the point right before I get my barrel through the zone, just keeping that a little tighter than I usually do. It helps me stay inside the ball — that’s been a big emphasis.”
As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.
Like with my Busts, I consider breakouts to be players who will out-earn their current costs. Most of the time, my breakouts aren’t exciting prospects but stable veterans who aren’t sexy anymore. If you want exciting picks, look elsewhere. If you want league winners, stay around.
3/11/24
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