9/24/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Nick and Paul run through some gems to consider streaming and some established arms to possibly re-consider this week.

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9/23/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Trying to estimate how much who FAAB bidding will go has been a humbling experience. While I’ll likely to break down the entire process during the offseason, it’s just one more bidding cycle. The only requirement this week is “spend it if you got it”. The dollars aren’t rolling over to next season.

My model was off for the past week as owners began taking my advice a week early. The number of bids jumped from the previous week (562 to 568) with the average bid just dropping from $6.7 to $6.5. My model projected a spending drop which effectively did not happen.

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Many decent arms, even for bad teams, throw on Saturday. While there are usually quite a few pitchers under 20% owned to examine, I pushed the threshold up to 43% and still only have eight pitchers. It’s not pretty out there.

Jose Urena (43%) vs Reds

There is a reason Urena is the most owned of this group, he’s better than the rest. He’s been a steaming option all season with a 7.0 K/9 and 4.21 ERA with estimators to match. The Reds lineup is not intimidating especially since the game is in Miami with the spacious ballpark. Stream away.

Jaime Barria (37%) at Astros

The Astros are starting Verlander, so the Win is already in doubt. Like Urena, Barria has been a streamable option all season with similar stats (6.8 K/9, 3.61 ERA). The difference here is the opponent.

Astros > Reds

Even with the bad matchup, Barria is not a horrible streaming option compared to some of the other arms.

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9/21/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

#2EarlyMock Review

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I posted my first five rounds yesterday and you can check those out here. I was going to post my first nine rounds, but I was minutes away from my 10th pick so I decided to break it up into two 5s.

Round 6, Pick 62: Marcell Ozuna | OF, STL (ADP: 69… nice)

While I was ahead of the ADP on Ozuna, this still felt like a bargain to me. He labored through much of the first half as his shoulder was clearly bothering him, but he’s looked like his 2017 self in the second half with a .303/.353/.527 line and 12 homers in 218 PA. He hit just 10 HR in 377 first half PA and had just a .645 OPS through May. A healthy Ozuna is a top 50 pick.

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With the season coming to a close, now is a good time to look back to see which MLB teams provided fantasy owners with the most valuable offensive resources this season.

This chart looks at players currently ranked in the top twelve at each offensive position (and top fifty at outfield) in both CBS (points) and ESPN (roto) rankings, broken down by team. If you’re curious about which players where ranked where, a more detailed breakdown of the ranks are found here. If a player was eligible at more than one position, they were only included once, and if a player was ranked in the top twelve in one format, but not the other they were not included. If a player was traded, the team which they played the majority of their games with was given credit.

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If you listen to the podcast, you know Justin Mason started up his Too Early Mock series and we’re off and running with eight leagues hosted by Fantrax. The always-excellent Smada is also running an ADP tracker for all eight drafts. Make sure to follow him on Twitter for plenty of baseball goodness. I’m in league 2, by the way.

So many of these leagues are shark tanks which makes them even more fun because you’re unlikely to really see anyone slip too far. If anything, you’ll have to pop your gems early if you want to land them here. Our very own Al Melchior is in my league as well as personal friends Doug Thorburn and Chris Welsh! Again, the whole group is strong.

Here is the rundown in order of picks:

1. Chuck Anderson
2. Frank Aquila
3. Chris Welsh
4. Brandon Bruckman
5. @batflipcrazy
6. Matt Thompson
7. Al Melchior
8. Doug Thorburn
9. Kyle Bishop
10. Brian Slack
11. Me
12. Mike Tanner

Here are my first 5 rounds and I should have made my 10th pick by tomorrow so I’ll write up those 5 as well.

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With the smaller Thursday game slate, I expanded my normal Fantrax ownership out to 25%. In all, there are a couple decent options.

Jason Vargas (25%) at Nationals

Look at those home runs (1.9 HR/9) and the .325 BABIP. That’s what happens with a lefty is sitting at 86.5 mph, he gets hit around. His 6.47 ERA would even be worse without his 7.9 K/9.

As for his value in this game, he’s very borderline and it may come down to league depth. The Nationals are middle of the pack against lefties and are going with unproven Joe Ross. The chose to use him is a coin flip.

Jorge Lopez (19%) at Tigers

Like with Vargas, the outlook isn’t great but some of the other options are horrible. Lopez has been able to be a productive low strikeout, high walk pitcher by limiting the damage done by batted balls (.289 BABIP, 0.5 HR/9). His 47% GB% doesn’t point to him being either a groundball or flyball pitcher but he’s both.

His four-seamer (29% GB%) and slider (36% GB%) are high flyball pitches. His curve (61% GB%) and change (65% GB%) are the groundball pitches. His major issue is that his sinker, which he throws more than any pitch, has a middle of the road 44% GB%. Also, it has the lowest swinging-strike rate (5%) of any of this pitches. There are signs he could be more. I’m just not sure it’ll happen this season.

He’s a reasonable streamer except for those owners needing to protect their WHIP. He’s always been prone to giving up walks and this season it’s no different (3.8 BB/9).

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It’s a slate of studs with several aces going, but there are still a host of useful starters to run out there in your playoff or roto chase to the top.

(I’ll be citing the FantasyPros roster rates)

Joey Lucchesi – SD v. SF (26%)

Lucchesi is a slam dunk spot start thanks to the easiest matchup a lefty can get in the second half. The Giants are 30th in wOBA against lefties since the break at .262. Meanwhile, it’s not just the matchup that is appealing here as Lucchesi’s had a useful 4.13 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 48 innings.

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