The Jays have a solid system and a great collection of hitters but I am worried about the general lack of development/advancement of a lot of the arms outside the Top 10 list.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B | AAA —> You’ve probably already read a lot about Guerrero Jr… so I’ll keep this fairly short. He has the chance to hit for average, power, get on base at a crazy-high rate and be one of the top hitters in all of baseball. He has limited defensive value but his instincts allow him to play third base for now. I do worry about his conditioning as he matures and, if he doesn’t make some changes now, may start to decline in his early 30s.

2. Bo Bichette | SS | AA —> Bichette receives his fair share of attention but perhaps not as much as he would if he were not sharing the limelight with Guerrero Jr. The young shortstop has swiftly risen through the system and reached double-A in 2018 at the age of 20 — a significant accomplishment. He also more than held his own in a league with an average age around 24. His quick bat generates plenty of raw power but he has yet to become a prolific home run hitter; instead, he slugged 43 doubles (with seven triples and 11 homers) in 131 games. Bichette is an aggressive hitter so there will likely be adjustment periods at both the triple-A and MLB levels as more experienced pitchers exploit those tendencies. He has 20-20 potential.

Read the rest of this entry »

David Dahl first appeared on prospect lists back in 2013 as a top 60 entrant across the industry. Injuries limited him to just 10 games that year so he fell back to the bottom 30 on lists, but then inched back up for the 2015 and 2016 seasons, settling firmly in the top 50 before expiring his rookie status in the summer of ’16. He was again cut down by injuries for almost an entire season when he played just 19 games in 2017. He found his way back on the MLB roster this year in late-April, but again found himself bit by the injury bug as a fractured foot ate up two months in the middle of the season.

Read the rest of this entry »

A diverse pitching arsenal can help a starter successfully navigate a lineup several times since hitters have a harder time sitting on a single pitch. I went through the 2018 starters and found four pitcher groups who are the two ends of the spectrum. Either they rely on two pitches or have a diverse arsenal.

Many articles have been written about times through the order but the Holy Grail of research articles is the one MGL wrote a few years back. In it, he quantified how much having a third pitch helps. The research holds up even now. I took the 206 starters who threw at least 30 innings and found the percentage of pitches which were fastballs and next highest thrown. Normally, the average was around 75%. Then, I divided up the pitchers into 5% increments. Next, I subtracted the ERA from an average of their ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, kwERA, SIERA) and here the average values. Read the rest of this entry »

One reason the Atlanta Braves surprised the baseball world and won the National League East was the strength of the team’s starting pitching. Sean Newcomb turned in a 2 WAR/3.90 ERA season; Anibal Sanchez reinvented himself at age-34; and several youngsters (Michael Soroka, Touki Toussaint) were effective in limited action. But without Mike Foltynewicz’ stellar season, the Braves may not have turned into NL East champs ahead of schedule in 2018.

Read the rest of this entry »

Can you believe it’s already November? I always lament the end of the season, but the gold lining is my annual trip to the Arizona Fall League for BaseballHQ’s First Pitch Forum event. This was my 10th year attending, and I absolutely love it.

Not only do we get to watch live baseball from some of the best prospects in baseball, but there’s also nonstop fantasy baseball talk as well as the beginning of a 50-round draft and hold NFBC league. We run the first 23 rounds live in Arizona and then pick it up in January online for the final 27. Let’s take a closer look at the team I put together on Friday night.

Read the rest of this entry »

The AL East is currently ruled by the Red Sox and, to some degree, the Yankees. The Rays have the talent to challenge both of them within the next three to five years… but will the organization ever step up and keep the players together long enough to win it all?

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Wander Franco | SS | SS —> Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays has seen a meteoric rise through pro ball and is on the cusp of reaching the Majors despite still being a teenager. Franco, another son of a former big leaguer, is just 17 but has also produced video-game-like numbers despite limited experience in pro ball. He showed an outstanding approach at the plate with a BB-K of 27-19 in 61 advanced rookie ball games. Franco also gets to more in-game power than most players his age. The sky is the limit for this young player but I also want to be a little cautious until I see him in full-season ball.

2. Brent Honeywell | RHP | INJ —> Honeywell appeared on a collision course with the big leagues in 2018 but Tommy John surgery derailed that hope. Now, he’ll hope to reach the Majors towards the end of 2019. The 23-year-old hurler has No. 2/3 starter potential with his potential above-average four-pitch mix, which includes a rare (plus) screwball. There are now some durability concerns with Honeywell, who is not a huge guy, but he’s also very athletic and a smart pitcher so those traits should help him as he moves forward.

Read the rest of this entry »

11/03/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @enosarris – Co-Host
• @emilycwaldon – Guest

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

AFL Prospects

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Yesterday, I reviewed my preseason list of nine potential strikeout rate surgers. Today, let’s find out how the 10 pitchers I identified as potential strikeout rate decliners actually performed.

Read the rest of this entry »

10/31/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Talking Top 100 SPs w/Justin

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

I try not to miss examining players who had great, short seasons. An injury or time in the minors kept them off the end-of-season rankings. They flew under the radar but given a full season of playing time they stick out and could provide hidden value. Today, I’m going to start by examing the top prorated hitters.

I needed a way to value the hitters and decided to create an overall Standing Gain Points (SGP) formula from The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational leagues. The 13 15-team leagues were set up with  14 hitters (1 C, 2 Util), 9 pitchers, and used AVG. Tanner Bell and I will be providing this formula, along with several others, in our new book, The Process, available within weeks (shameless plug).

Read the rest of this entry »