Ronald Acuña Jr. won the NL Rookie of the Year on Monday evening. That isn’t much of a surprise, but the fact that he ran away with it was kind of shocking. I didn’t see a major difference between Acuña and Juan Soto and could’ve truly seen the award going either way, so I was a little taken aback when Acuña nabbed 27 of the 30 first-place votes.

It wasn’t always a foregone conclusion that Acuña would be a ROY frontrunner this year as he had a .779 OPS in 129 PA before a left ACL sprain shelved him for a month. He took off when he returned, meeting and even exceeding the lofty expectations placed upon super-prospect. His numbers in the 82 games post-injury were probably good enough for the Rookie of the Year on their own and it’s why he has surged into the top 20 of early 2019 drafts.

Acuña put together a blistering .304/.380/.589 line with 21 HR, 51 RBI, 59 R, and 14 SB in 358 PA. Pace those out to a full season and you’re looking at 42-101-117-28. I’m not saying you should pace those numbers as a 2019 expectation, but rather I’m just showing how insane he was over the second half of the season.

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It is that time of year where there is nothing going on but speculation. As we wait for players to sign and teams to trade, the days go by with not much to do to help us pass the time.

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When tonight’s NL Rookie of the Year award is announced, Harrison Bader’s name will be mentioned in passing, if at all. The finalists are Ronald Acuña Jr., Juan Soto, and Walker Buehler so guys like Bader, Brian Anderson, and Jack Flaherty will likely only get a hat tip for their seasons before the winner is crowned.

In late-August, Jeff Sullivan did a great job highlighting Bader’s case for ROY based primarily on his excellent defense. That piece is definitely worth a look as Bader finished with 3.5 WAR, just behind the 3.7 that both Acuña and Soto logged, but I’ll be looking at his season from the fantasy angle and looking ahead to 2019.

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A while back, I ranked hitters if all their 2018 stats were prorated to 600 plate appearances. It’s now time for the pitchers. In all fairness, the rankings are a huge disappointment with no surprises coming through.

I adjusted the rankings for 180 innings for starters and 60 innings for relievers and no one seemed out of place. With the hitters, Raul Mondesi at the top was an attention-getter. Looking over both sets of top-25 pitchers, the biggest surprise was Joshua James and he’s not really a surprise since he dominated at the season’s end. Time to get bored.

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The Yankees system has some very promising prospects and lots of depth but no “can’t miss, impact talent”… at least not yet. There are definitely some candidates to earn that tag by the end of 2019.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Jonathan Loaisiga | RHP | AAA —> Back in January, I picked Loaisiga as the biggest sleeper in the Yankees system. He made me look good by rising from obscurity, zooming through the minors and even reaching the big leagues. He has the chance to develop three plus offerings but the knock on him is his lack of physicality. And sure enough, he was hurt in 2018 not long after making his MLB debut. If he can hold up as a starter, Loaisiga has No. 2 starter potential. If not, he might end up as a high-leverage reliever.

2. Justus Sheffield | LHP | AAA —> Sheffield is another smallish pitcher but he’s stronger and more athletic than the pitcher above him. He also has a solid fastball-slider combination but the changeup needs a fair bit of polish to become an average offering. Sheffield also struggles with his control at times and I’ve heard that he could stand to be more mature. He gets a solid number of ground-ball outs to go with a health number of strikeouts. I see No. 3/4 starter potential here and he should be ready to pitch out of the Yankees starting rotation in 2019.

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11/12/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @iankahn4 – Guest

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11/09/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith trade (3:00)

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Two seasons ago, I examined the chances the season’s initial closer made it the entire season without being replaced for any reason including injury. I went back and revisited the study and updated it with 2017 and 2018 results. While the initially calculated chances were low, the odds are getting even worse.

I posted to Twitter account my initial results for the last two seasons to make sure nothing was too far off. Thanks to everyone for the responses and here are the end results:
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It’s rankings time so the comments are open for everyone to go batshit crazy about how a computer program and I are wrong.  We are both ready for everyone’s best shot as neither one of us gives a flying  f***.

As part of my soon to be released e-book, The Process, the Standing Gain Points formulas will be included for several league types. I took the one for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, merge it with Steamer projections, and created some overall rankings.

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The Jays have a solid system and a great collection of hitters but I am worried about the general lack of development/advancement of a lot of the arms outside the Top 10 list.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B | AAA —> You’ve probably already read a lot about Guerrero Jr… so I’ll keep this fairly short. He has the chance to hit for average, power, get on base at a crazy-high rate and be one of the top hitters in all of baseball. He has limited defensive value but his instincts allow him to play third base for now. I do worry about his conditioning as he matures and, if he doesn’t make some changes now, may start to decline in his early 30s.

2. Bo Bichette | SS | AA —> Bichette receives his fair share of attention but perhaps not as much as he would if he were not sharing the limelight with Guerrero Jr. The young shortstop has swiftly risen through the system and reached double-A in 2018 at the age of 20 — a significant accomplishment. He also more than held his own in a league with an average age around 24. His quick bat generates plenty of raw power but he has yet to become a prolific home run hitter; instead, he slugged 43 doubles (with seven triples and 11 homers) in 131 games. Bichette is an aggressive hitter so there will likely be adjustment periods at both the triple-A and MLB levels as more experienced pitchers exploit those tendencies. He has 20-20 potential.

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