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Five Post-200 ADP Players I Love

Ryan O’Hearn – Royals | First Base, 329th

O’Hearn gives me a bit of a Matt Olson vibe after a tremendous 44-game sample in the majors last year during which he hit .262/.353/.597 with 12 HR in 170 PA. It’s not a perfect comp as Olson was off the charts in a 53-game run back in 2017 (.259/.352/.651, 24!! HR in 216 PA), but O’Hearn also won’t cost what Olson did after his second half debut. Olson went 124th on average and peaked as high as 71st while O’Hearn has peaked at 268th and probably won’t push into the top 200 even with a surge.

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The Training Room: Clayton Kershaw 2019 Outlook

The Back Problem

Full disclosure, I am a huge Los Angeles Dodgers homer, so it pains me to write this article, but it has to be done. Clayton Kershaw won’t be a top 25 starting pitcher in 2019, despite his tenacity, drive, and historical value. Whether people realize it or not, he was not a top 20 pitcher in 2018. Kershaw’s well-known diagnosis of herniated discs that he’s battled for several years and a physiologic phenomenon known as pain inhibition will limit his innings and his production. Here is the simple version.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 627 – “The Process” with Jeff Zimmerman

1/10/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 626 – Fireside Chat: Top 50 SP Fades

1/9/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Top 50 SP Fades

  • NFBC ADP (set to 12/25/18 for the start date to follow along)

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A Minor Review of 2018: Cleveland Indians

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Cleveland IndiansIf you were perusing last year’s series, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Nolan Jones, 3B: You haven’t reach much about Jones yet but that might chance in 2018 when he moves up to full-season ball for the first time. The 19-year-old third baseman produced a .430 on-base percentage in 2017 in short-season ball thanks to a 16% walk rate and .317 batting average. The average is due for some regression thanks to his .417 BABIP and 22% strikeout rate but he has the frame (6-4, 190 pounds) and the line-drive pop (22 LD%) to grow into some serious power. Jones looks like a future stud at the hot corner and he has the defensive tools to stick there.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Shane Bieber, RHP: Bieber had his ups-and-downs but he held his own during his first taste of the majors better than I thought he would. He chewed up innings and threw strikes — but got too much of the strike zone at times. With improved fastball command, Bieber could develop into a solid mid-rotation starter thanks to his strong breaking stuff and the aforementioned control. His development (along with Mike Clevinger’s) has made it easier for the club to consider parting ways with Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

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10 Biggest Swinging Strike Rate Gainers of 2018

Strikeouts have become a massive part of today’s game both on the field and in fantasy baseball. The ability to consistently miss bats is a key driver in success and can be a building block for a breakout. Let’s take a look at the top 10 gainers in SwStr% (min. 100 IP) and see what drove their gains.

Gerrit Cole, Astros | +4.6% to 15%

We’d been waiting for this Cole breakout since he debuted! He had the big 2015 season with 2.60 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 208 IP, but even the 24% K rate that season felt short of what Cole’s arsenal could do at peak. There was a valid concern that Cole wouldn’t ever reach those heights, though. The Pirates preach heavy fastball usage which can undercut the potential of a secondary arsenal as strong as Cole’s. During Cole’s 2013-17 tenure in Pittsburgh, they led baseball in starter fastballs at 62%.

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Projection Adjustment: Turner, Profar, Rosario, & Renfroe

Since the end of the regular season, I’ve been helping various publications write player previews for the upcoming season. During the process, I kept a list of hitters who I felt there may be reasons to adjust their talent projections. I’ve found that even when I normally deep dive into hitters, I come up close to the standard projection and wasted my time. I found I’m better off focusing my effort on pitchers. I can’t afford to ignore hitters, though. I’m now going to analyze these few in detail over a series of articles to see if their projection holds up or do I need to adjust it.

For some of the hitters, the reason behind the talent change (e.g. injury) is obvious. For others, I don’t remember the exact reason. Oops. I’m going to start working my way through them starting with the ones with the highest ADP.

Note: I’m only dealing with the player’s talent. Projecting playing time is an entire separate fiasco.

Justin Turner (109th in NFBC ADP)

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On The Move: Robertson, Britton, Broxton, & Others

There wasn’t a ton of moves with fantasy implications over the weekend but there was enough to lump together some. I’m still at the point that no major team breakdowns can really start with the two big bats still available. Anyways, here is a breakdown of the moves:

Phillies sign David Robertson

The 33-year-old righty immediately joins the Phillies closer discussion for the simple reason he’s projected to be the best bullpen arm. Steamer has him for a 3.22 ERA with Seranthony Dominguez next at 3.39 and previous closer Hector Neris at 3.62.

The Phillies front office would prefer Robertson to close instead of the other two to save money. The team is already on the hook for his $23 million dollar contract, so his price is set. The more Saves the pre-arbitration arms get, the higher their arbitration contracts will cost.

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A Minor Review of 2018: Detroit Tigers

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Detroit Tigers

If you were perusing last year’s series, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Matt Hall, LHP: Hall isn’t your typical sleeper. He’s not toolsy, especially athletic and he doesn’t eye-popping raw stuff. He’s a small-ish lefty start with a fastball that just squeaks into the 90s at times but he still does a number of things well. His curveball is a plus offering and the heater is good enough to keep hitters honest. He also generates a lot of ground balls despite just 6-feet tall. Some deception in his delivery helped him strike out 149 batters in 138.1 innings. Although he could chew up innings as a starter, Hall could really break out for the Tigers if he gets moved to the pen.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Christin Stewart, OF: I’ve been pretty critical of Stewart as a prospect over the past few years but I have give credit where credit is due. He became a better all-around hitter in 2018 while trimming his strikeout rate and not losing any of his power in the process. He looks like a pretty decent bet for 20+ homers and a more-than-healthy on-base rate. With that said, he still carries negative value into the field, and on the base paths.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 625 – Buyback Pitchers

1/4/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

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