Five Post-200 ADP Players I Love
Ryan OāHearn ā Royals | First Base, 329th
OāHearn gives me a bit of a Matt Olson vibe after a tremendous 44-game sample in the majors last year during which he hit .262/.353/.597 with 12 HR in 170 PA. Itās not a perfect comp as Olson was off the charts in a 53-game run back in 2017 (.259/.352/.651, 24!! HR in 216 PA), but OāHearn also wonāt cost what Olson did after his second half debut. Olson went 124th on average and peaked as high as 71st while OāHearn has peaked at 268th and probably wonāt push into the top 200 even with a surge.
If you liked the full price version of this profile last year, you should love the bargain bin iteration this year. Honestly, I love both. Olson is still pricey, going around 107th in a weak 1B market, but Iād be down to buy him for 1B and then slot OāHearn in my CI slot several rounds later.
Jimmy Nelson ā Brewers | 275th
Iāve already expressed my interest in Nelson in article and podcast form (well, multiple podcasts). Missing all of 2018 has definitely depressed his price and it will jump up with a healthy Spring Training, but like OāHearn I donāt think itāll ever get to a level where I wouldnāt still be interested in buying. Letās say he looked incredible in a handful of spring starts and rose 100 picks, thatād put him around 175 which would have him around Nathan Eovaldi and Dallas Keuchel. I have Nelson ranked higher than Keuchel so Iād have no problem with this. I doubt his draft price will jump that much anyway as any surge will likely still keep him outside the top 200.
Trevor May ā Twins | 266th
The signing of Blake Parker does cut into Mayās chances of becoming the lockdown closer for the Twins, but Iām still willing to draft him. The 29-year old righty missed all of 2017 with Tommy John Surgery. He returned in late-2018 and put together a fantastic 25 innings of work with a 3.20 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 30% K-BB rate (powered by a 35% K rate).
He has increased his swinging strike rate every year in the majors, peaking with last yearās 15% mark. His velocity was all the way back in his 2018 sample, too, setting a new high at 94.1 mph. With this kind of swing-and-miss, he has the kind of profile worth drafting even if isnāt getting all the saves. Seven of his 24 outings went over an inning last year and he could feasibly push over 80 innings and log 100 strikeouts in the process. If heās named closer over Parker, weāll monitor the price this spring.
Jackie Bradley Jr. ā Red Sox | 224th
JBJ is one of those guys I love watching and it can cause me to overdraft in him fantasy, especially because his primary value comes from defense. Things went great in 2016 when I bought on his short 2015 sample (123 wRC+) and got rewarded with a full season of 118 wRC+, 26 HR, and 9 SB, but heās had just a 90 wRC+, 30 HR, and 25 SB in 1076 PA since then. That aforementioned defense should give Bradley at least 500 PA. Iād like to see the Red Sox allow him to run more, too. He was tremendous on the bases last year, going 17-for-18 and heās 47-for-53 over his career. Jason Collette really likes JBJ for 2019, too.
Willians Astudillo ā Twins | Catcher, 250th ADP
Itās hard not to love Astudillo and Iām hardly alone, but the cult following around the portly utilityman hasnāt surged his fantasy price. Of course, that probably has to do with the fact that he appears ticketed for Triple-A to start the season. Jason Castro is slotted in at starter and Mitch Garver will handle the backup duties (though they could be more of a 55/45 split).
Astudillo played 3B, 2B, CF, and LF with the Twins last year so he could be a strong bench bat who bounces around the diamond. His minor league track record says he an empty batting average (.103 career ISO), but he popped a .193 ISO at Triple-A last year and a passable .161 in his 97 MLB PA. Letās see if he can finagle a bench spot with the club and if so, heās an ideal C2, but if he is slated for Triple-A to start 2019, itās a likely pass until he gets called up.
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Who’s your favorite of this quintet? Who’s your favorite outside the 200 at large? (ADP is here, make sure to set to 12/25/2018 as the start date to match the output I was using)
Nice list. In on a couple, like JBJ. Playing time alone should get you draft day value there.
My 5:
Franmil (210ish using fantrax since i have it open): Playing time can be a concern in that logjam. A trade would be nice, but its hard to get 40+ home run upside after pick 200, with surprising bat to ball skills.
CJ Cron (250ish): Echo what I said above. Seems like ppl tie real life value to fantasy value too frequently.
Assdribble (270ish): Not having a team doesn’t help, but positional eligibility across the diamond with 15+ hrs and 270ish batting average? Sign me up.
Franchy (350ish) : Guy is a statcast wetdream. Hits the ball as hard as anyone not playing for the Yankees, w peak speed approaching 30ft/s, above guys like Trout, Gardner, Orlando, Merrifield, Dyson.
Jung Ho Kang 500ish; Worth a shot at free. Looked good in workouts/minors. I get he is a guy people won’t be rooting for, but guys a career .275 hitter w a 28 hr per 650 PA pace. He doen’t have to be good to pay off this pick.
Def on the Kang train hard even though he burned me pretty bad last year- Pitt forgave him so thats alll we should need moving forward- He should have 2b ss 3b tags in May too boot
Austin Meadows could be Benintendi-lite and easily return top 100 value.
Also agree on Astudillo. He’s too good not to get playing time. According to Jeff Sullivan’s piece on Grandal, league-average wRC+ for a catcher was 84 and Astudillo is projected for a 104 wRC+. Depth charts projects Astudillo for a .290/.319./441 and a .326 woba (same as JT Realmuto!).
Generally speaking, it seems like it is better to take a flyer on a high contact hitter adding power than a high power, low contact hitter fixing his contact issues.
I agree on Astudillo. I feel like its hard not to be woke on him, but wRC+ isn’t really a good projection for him. Guys who don’t walk and always put the ball in play are better 5×5 players than real life, and who knows, he might be good in real life also
Does woke mean somewhat familiar with? You millennials and your words…
I would argue that guys who put the ball in play are better IRL as they produce productive outs that nothing else catches.
English teacher here…’woke’ is a good and important new word and there is no other word that quite fits the meaning. However, it is used awkwardly and inappropriately in this thread.
Cheating a little bit but Im all over Gausman at 196 as an Sp3/4 –
Carlos Rodon at 264 is a worthy add if you have the Pepto Bismol in the fridge ready, ill be very interested seeing him in the spring-
Give me Betances 8 days a week at 272and Im drafting Urias everywhere if he stays at/around 274 to see where the story goes
You can have those guys in my book. Fun to see who considers what a value.
Fav:Trevor May
Likes: Danny Jansen
Smoake (OBP leagues)
Collin McHugh
Jed Lowrie
Matt Strahm
Lowrie is a good one. He is likely going to have Zobristian eligibility by the end of the year.
Quick – what’s Jackie Bradley’s career batting average…..Give up? Yea. It’s .238.
He’s kind of terrible. Below average power, middling speed (I’ll take the under on his 17 sb last year with a prior career high of 8). Hits low in the order, which hurts his R and RBI. And yea, .238. Admit it you all thought it was higher like .265.
He is not good. What am I missing here?
Whats not valuable about 20ish homers and 10ish steals post pick 200?
The only leagues hes not worth rostering in are fairly shallow…. where I’m guessing none of the guys in this article are owned.
20 HR is worth nothing in this era.
Nothing? It seems a radical difference between a guy who has .280 20 HR, 20 SB and .280 0 HR, 20 SB.
Well that’s just not true.
batting average isn’t a category in lots of leagues
I knew it was low, but that’s also due in part to 530 PA of .196 to open his career. He had a .277 BABIP, 29% K, and 8% BB during that time. Since then he’s at .250/.331/.441 in 1967 PA with a 24% K and 9% BB. Brutal first half last year (71 wRC+, .265 BABIP), but then made some swing alterations w/the help of J.D. Martinez and took off in the second half (118 wRC+).
His flaws are priced into his draft spot. I just think there’s more here. He can be remarkably streaky, which is frustrating, but if he can curb some of those brutal cold spells, I think we can get a full season in the 117-124 wRC+ range.
Honestly thatās why I like Jake Bauers. Same hr/sb production, with position flexibility and I think more AVG upside. His minor league numbers suggest a better hit tool than he displayed last year.
Im with you here, you can get 20/10 .250 meh from an OF slot off the wire no problem- Id much rather invest in a great bullpen arm like Betances/Minter at that point in the draft-
This is true, but not an exciting answer. You can stream it really easily but that is a lot of work. So really, what is the value of a set it and forget it player v the same production for free but with some time and maintenance.
There were just 24 20/10/.250 bats last year. Betances is great and I still like Minter to do more than ’18, but finding quality MRP is about the easiest thing to do in fantasy. Gimme Bradley over those 2 all day.
He is streaky. In theory you don’t have to ride out all the bad stretches and the hot ones are easy to see. Not a great value in my book either.
2 things:
1: I love off to the side the feature ‘in this article’ with listed players and their stats. I don’t know how new or old this is, but its great.
2: where are these rankings for ADP that you are using? Can somebody provide a link please?
Thanks!
Edit: just realized the link is at the bottom of the article. 5am is not being kind to me today.
Reynaldo at 240 I love. Took major strides down the stretch. 45.2 IP, 1.38 ERA, 9+ K/9 from 8/24 on.
Loved Camargo’s skills. Hopefully the Donaldson taking 3rd/him being their super utility pushes down the price some more.
Always loved Schebler. Plate discipline got better last year, if he can avoid injuries, 30+ HRs at 263 is just nice,
The went highish in 2018, so I’ll take the low in 2019 of Fulmer (300), Belt (326), Joc (311), DeShields (368), DSantana (379), Shark (413), and Giolito (427). There’s just too much profit potential to not take a stab on any of these.
You are good at this! The only one of those I don’t want is DeShields at any price. If Shark is healthy, then he is a great value. At 413, its a good risk.
Thank you lol
I keep thinking Ketel Marte (no. 228) is going to have a power breakout one of these years. He already has good plate discipline and contact skills. Last season, he hit two 450+ feet dingers and his hardest hit ball was 115 mph
Yeah, I don’t see that. That just means that he swings really hard sometimes but he doesn’t have a bunch of power.
I only filtered on Draft Champions but here are 5 guys Iād be thrilled to have after pick 200:
Trey Mancini (214)
Ian Happ (259)
Jake Bauers (261)
Michael Wacha (275)
Kyle Gibson (290)
I think there is a really solid back half of the rotation that could earn SP3 or higher dollars with Godley, Matz, Wacha, Gibson and Gonzalez all in the 200ās
Would you keep Nelson in a 12 team NL only keeper league ($260 budget) at $10 or put him back in hopes of getting him back for less?
I don’t really get Astudillo playing a AAAA role right now and fighting for a bench spot. Last year in the majors he posted a 139 wRC+ over 97 PAs (and coincidentally solved my horrendous catcher spot after the all-star break). While I don’t think that is sustainable on the back of a .341 BABIP, it seems like the Twins would want to get a 100+ wRC+ bat into the lineup, especially with mediocre defense at many spots.
I don’t get it either, but it seems to be current thinking. I think he can win a spot in Spring and change it, though
Ian Happ is going 100 spots lower than last year and is the same guy. Not the worst sleeper as he does a bit of everything.
After the Russell Martin trade, add Danny Jansen (no. 249) to the list (although his ADP will probably rise)
Maikel Franco at 284 is a good value. I think PHI is committed to finding ways to keep him out of the lineup, but he is a good hitter for that late.
Astudillo is currently the tenth catcher off the board (using the author’s parameters). That means there are 21 starting catchers going after this guy who’s third on the depth chart. Sure it’s round 20 in a twelve team, but you still need everyday players then. And if he’s so promising why does Fangraphs project him for 100 ABs or so?
Re: the low projection –
“Of course, that probably has to do with the fact that he appears ticketed for Triple-A to start the season.”
Your point about the bevy of starting Cs going after him is fair, but they’re also all very similar so I think Astudillo’s AVG upside is being valued even if you have to wait on it and then you can get a 2nd C later to put in while he’s in Triple-A (if he does in fact get sent down).