Archive for Featured

Dunning-Kreuger and the $1 Player

In my Tout Wars auction held just over a week ago, 72 players were rostered who cost just $1. While I rostered my standard four, one owner got 10 with two others at nine*. I wondered if there is a point that having too many $1 players on a team is a detriment.

First, a little background on the auction. Here is the plot of the auction bids compared to the actual 2019 results.

The 2019 production leader was at $47 (Razzball) and $43 (FanGraphs auction calculator). Six players went at or above the $47 mark and eight over $43. The idea of spending more early on is to grab some $2 to $8 guys in the end game for $1. In this auction, everyone was taking that approach. I used my standard “lesser stars and scrubs” approach.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 795 – Tout Wars AL Review

03/23/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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TOUT REVIEW

  • AL Tout Wars Review

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Tout Wars Recap: Prep, Auction, & Why

This past weekend, I missed out on one of my favorite weekends when I head to New York for the Tout Wars 15-team mixed auction and the NFBC Main Event. While the NFBC Main Event was postponed, the Tout Wars auction went on but from the confines of our homes. Here are a few observations on a team I may not get to manage this year and how can these industry drafts help the people in their own leagues.

Thanks to Fred Zinkie and Tanner Bell who both jumped on Skype with me to bounce ideas off and at least giving me someone to talk to.

Preparation

Simply, I have a whole book on how I prepped for the auction. I didn’t deviate from it except in the following few ways. Each will be incorporated into future editions of The Process.

First, I split apart the player pool into four groups: Catchers, non-catchers, starters, and closers. The tendencies of the league are set with each group having their own valuations. The big change for me is a separate catcher group. I didn’t go through the whole replacement level valuations that boost up some catchers into the top-20 players and mess with the auction dollar distribution. Instead, I made them their own player pool. After catchers messed up my hitter valuations in LABR, I adjusted and fewer in auction adjustments were needed.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 794 – Tout Wars NL & Mixed H2H Review

03/17/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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TOUT WARS REVIEW

  • Paul, Justin, and Nick review Justin’s NL team and then dive into the H2H mixer that both Paul & Nick were in!

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Justin Mason’s NL Only Tout Wars Team

Every year, a group of some of the finest fantasy baseball analysts get together for a weekend of auctions in New York City. However, due to recent events, the weekend itself was cancelled, but Tout Wars happened in virtual form.  This was my second year in the NL Only league and I was none too thrilled to be doing the draft online.

I love being in Tout Wars, but I am not a fan of doing online auctions. I feel like there are things lost when you are not face-to-face. There is no ability to read the room. I also typically use draft software and paper simultaneously which become harder to do while also managing online draft software. Of course, I made it even more difficult on myself by live streaming all five and a half hours of the auction. That being said, I feel good about the team I drafted.  Read the rest of this entry »


Letters from the Battlefield – February 25, 2020

Camp Jupiter, Florida

February 25, 2020

Dearest Mother, 

I apologize for not writing sooner. I was inspired to write to you after reading the letters a former Captain, named Andrew Luck, wrote to his mother. I hope these letters find you well.  Read the rest of this entry »


Mining The News (3/16/20)

Today’s edition is abbreviated but I felt I needed to draw a line from the first Spring Training to the second one whenever it occurs. A few tidbits snuck through before everything came to a halt.

For the next few articles, I’m going to grind through the velocity gainers and losers next, cross-check those with Jason Collette’s new pitch tracker, and find some possible breakouts.
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2020 Reliever Rankings

I know some drafts are still going forward despite the delay to the MLB season so I wanted to get these RP rankings out as I did promise them on the podcast the other day. I’ll probably do an update to every position once more before the season starts, but here’s the initial run of RPs.

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The Start of the Season is Delayed … Now What?

While moving the MLB season back was the best possible action with the given information, it leaves the fantasy game and analysts like me in a little bit of limbo. Today, I had planned on writing about closers or just do another addition of Mining the News. Also, I was supposed to be off to New York for my Tout Wars auction (moved online) and my NFBC Main Event draft (moved back). After both those drafts, it was to be a week of absorbing as much news as possible and then covering games that matter while scouring over lineups and pitching debuts. Now what?

At its core, fantasy baseball allows people to escape their real-world problems and that diversion has been taken away when they need it most. While many people will have more pressing matters as the COVID-19 spreads, it would have been nice for them to enjoy their favorite escape. And most other live entertainment is on hold for the time being. I don’t know what other options people have to keep themselves entertained but it might be a good time to spend some time with your family and learn a new skill or even read one of those “book” things.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 793 – Closer/Reliever Preview

03/12/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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RELIEVER PREVIEW

THE SUPER 3 (6:46)

THESE GUYS ARE GOOD, TOO (18:05)

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