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Lineup Analysis (7/12/25)

American League

Angels

• Since coming off the IL, Yoán Moncada has hit sixth and started every game.

Jorge Soler started in seven of nine games since coming off the IL while batting in the lower half of the lineup. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (7/11/25)

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: July 11, 2025

Kim Klement Neitzel – Imagn Images

Below are the latest significant playing time projection changes for starters and relievers over the past week. The biggest news is Cam Schlittler‘s call-up, with his debut coming at the unfortunate cost of Clarke Schmidt’s UCL.

Change in Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 7/4 to 7/11
Name Team Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Cam Schlittler NYY 1% 11% 10% Called up to replace Schmidt
Shinnosuke Ogasawara WSN 3% 8% 5% Taking Williams’ rotation spot
Stephen Kolek SDP 12% 6% -6% Sent to AAA + Darvish back, King soon
Jameson Taillon CHC 18% 11% -7% Calf strain, out about a month
Trevor Williams WSN 11% 0% -11% UCL surgery
Didier Fuentes ATL 14% 0% -14% Sent back to AAA after looking nowhere near ready
Clarke Schmidt NYY 15% 0% -15% Tommy John surgery

 

% Change in Proj. RP IP, 7/4 to 7/11
Name Team % Chg in Proj RP IP Reason
Carson Fulmer LAA 206% Back in MLB as innings-eating reliever
Rico Garcia NYM 154% Has pitched well since call-up
Kolby Allard CLE 150% Back in MLB to take Herrin’s spot
Scott Alexander SFG 127% Back in MLB
Andrew Saalfrank ARI 100% Back in MLB after gambling suspension
Bailey Horn DET 100% Pitching well since callup
Blake Treinen LAD 53% Making good progress in return from injury
Chris Murphy BOS 49% Has quickly become key member of bullpen
Jordan Wicks CHC 35% Should continue to work in Flexen-y innings-eating role
Ben Casparius LAD 33% Back to bullpen with Glasnow back
Joey Lucchesi SFG 33% Miller injury means his lefty-ness is important
Ryan Thompson ARI -31% Scap strain
Mark Leiter Jr. NYY -31% Fibular stress fracture
Shelby Miller ARI -32% Forearm strain
Michael Soroka WSN -33% Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year
Alex Lange DET -33% Setback in rehab
Tim Herrin CLE -34% Sent to AAA
Erik Miller SFG -36% Elbow sprain
Michael Kopech LAD -44% Meniscus surgery
Liam Hendriks BOS -46% Transferred to 60-day IL amidst setback
Janson Junk MIA -46% Pitching great since move to rotation
Hunter Strickland LAA -60% Shoulder inflammation, on 60-day IL
Joey Wentz MIN -80% DFA’d
Trevor Williams WSN -100% UCL surgery
Mitchell Parker WSN -100% Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year
Slade Cecconi CLE -100% Pitching like rotation mainstay
T.J. McFarland ATH -100% DFA’d + elected FA
Zach Pop NYM -100% DFA’d
Ryne Nelson ARI -100% Pitching too well to move back to bullpen

Three Appearance Analysis with Tanner Houck: Part 3

Apr 20, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89) pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the second inning at Fenway Park.
Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Had you been rostering and starting Tanner Houck on April 14th, you likely wouldn’t have started him in his next outing on April 20th, assuming you were paying attention. On the 14th, he got blown up by the Tampa Bay Rays and exited the game early in the third inning after 11 earned runs crossed the plate. If that performance deterred you from staring him on April 20th, you were likely doubly annoyed when he turned in a decent outing against the White Sox. But look a little closer, and you will see pitches that should have been down, left up in the zone. You’ll see strikeouts on pitches that hitters who are not on the White Sox may have put over the fence. Who am I to call a good start bad? Houck got it done, but in this article, I’ll dive a little deeper to put it in context with his previous two starts in this final installment of The Three Appearance Analysis.

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 11th, 2025

Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Enjoy the All-Star break. I’ll finally have an updated SP ranking as we enter the second half.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 10th, 2025

Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Even for a Thursday short slate, this board is remarkably light on bankable options. I wouldn’t get too cute with these arms. Instead focus on offense Thursday and then turn back toward streaming arms for the weekend!

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Big Kid Adds (Week 14)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Will Benson (7): For anyone using weekly projections, Benson jumped off the page as an add. He came in as the week’s 77th-ranked batter. It might not seem like he’s worth adding, but in a 12-team league with 168 batters rostered, Benson is worth 0.2 points in the standings compared to a replacement outfielder. If a similar move is made every week throughout a season, it would theoretically be worth 5.2 spots in the standings.

In leagues with a decent waiver wire, being able to churn one to three spots can be a huge advantage.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (6): Kim returned to the Rays and immediately injured himself. Once regularly playing, he could be a difference maker with potential for Steals and Home Runs.

So far, he seems to be trading off power for more contact with some career-low power StatCast numbers in his AAA rehab. Solid gamble.

Colson Montgomery (6): I didn’t believe in Montgomery because of his 34% K% in AAA. If an AAA pitcher dominates a batter, I don’t want him in the majors. While a .500 BABIP in 17 PA has his overall numbers up (.385/.500/.538), his 15.6% SwStr% is 2.5% points higher than his AAA rate.

With all the hitters who were destroying AAA and then struggled in the majors, why would I want one who is getting eaten up by AAA pitching?

Max Muncy (West Sacramento) (5): Experiencing a hot streak (.316/.350/.789 in July) but has struggled (75 wRC+, 32% K%) for most of the season. He has shown more power with 7 HR in 179 PA. I backed off of him and several others A’s because Miguel Andujar (.296/.328/.402) is about to come off the IL. Zack Gelof’s return contributes to the roster crunch.

Francisco Alvarez (5): Sent to AAA, and someone thought it was time to add him for a potential future callup. Wasn’t horrible with a 92 wRC+ (.236/.319/.333). He wasn’t much of a fantasy contributor with 3 HR and 0 SB to go with the .236 AVG in 138 PA.

There may be more to the demotion than just his performance. By keeping Alvarez down until Saturday, the Mets gain another year of control over him.

Unless Alvarez is recalled to the major leagues by Saturday, he will have spent enough time in the minors this season to delay his free agency by a full year. The New York Mets will gain an additional year of team control over the catcher, who wouldn’t become a free agent until after the 2029 season. Alvarez would be a free agent entering his age-28 season, still relatively young to be on the open market.

“I can’t worry about that right now — it’s a lot for me to worry about right now,” Alvarez told The Athletic when approached about the free-agency issue Tuesday before a game in Syracuse. “I didn’t know that, but I feel like I need to just focus on getting better and that’s it.”

Alvarez’s demotion was not a surprise, and it wasn’t primarily motivated by the service-time issue. Though trying to incorporate a swing change, the third-year catcher has just six extra-base hits in 35 major-league games. His slugging percentage is 100 points lower than it was as a rookie in 2023.

Starters

Joey Cantillo (9): On Monday, Cantillo made his first major league start of the season, going 3 IP on 68 pitches. The results were similar to his results to date, a good number of strikeouts (5) and walks (3). He has some Will Warren/Tylor Megill vibes. He has good enough stuff to get the strikeouts, but the walks can come back to bite him.

On top of his WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.87 ERA, he’s not going deep into games. That might be the Guardians’ plan to limit his innings like the White Sox did with Garrett Crochet last season. Cantillo has never surpassed 119 IP in a single season and only threw 78 IP last season. So far this season, he’s at 47 IP.

Pablo López (6): On the 60-day IL, and the earliest he can come off the IL is early August, after going on the IL on June 5th. This is a pure stash player and could be worth losing the extra roster spot if Lopez returns to pitch like he was before the injury (2.82 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 9.1 K/9).

Sean Burke (5): I wrote the following about Burke in this week’s Waiver Wire article.

Since I wrote the analysis, he faced the Blue Jays and got lit up for 6 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, and 3 HR in 5 IP. He’s likely just a streamer against weaker offenses.

Ryan Gusto (5): Gusto’s (4.61 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.44 WHIP) demand is the hope that he replaces Colton Gordon (4.76 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.41 WHIP) in the Astros rotation. It seems like Gusto’s been overall better, but he padded his ERA with seven relief appearances (4.92 ERA as SP, 3.29 ERA as RP).

All of Gusto’s struggles have come against lefties. Against righties, he has a 2.49 FIP. Now, against lefties, it’s a 5.86 FIP. Broken down against lefties, it’s a:

4.9 BB/9
2.3 HR/9
.354 BABIP.

If he starts Sunday, he’ll face Texas, which is in the middle of the pack with right-handed batters comprising 57% of their plate appearances.

Logan Allen로건 (5): Allen is scheduled to face the White Sox, so he’s tempting for most fantasy teams to use. His 4.07 ERA is his best trait, with projections and ERA estimators pointing to a mid-4.00 ERA talent. Additionally, his 1.43 WHIP has done as much damage as a 5.10 ERA.

He’s shown a little improvement over his last six starts with his walk rate down from 4.7 BB/9 to 2.8 BB/9.

I get the same feeling as I did with Burke, where I might roster him, but I don’t feel good about.

Relievers

Ronny Henriquez (7): Miami’s closer with some amazing stats (2.72 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9).

Adrian Morejon (5): The lefty is being used in high-leverage spots with some great stats (1.79 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, 0.82 WHIP). My only issue with Morejon is that, being a lefty, he’s likely behind righty Jason Adam for the closer’s role if Robert Suarez falters.

Most Added Players In NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added In Max Bid Min Bid
Joey Cantillo 9 35 3
Ronny Henriquez 7 131 44
Will Benson 7 22 9
Ha-Seong Kim 6 74 13
Pablo Lopez 6 24 4
Colson Montgomery 6 19 11
Sean Burke 5 23 5
Ryan Gusto 5 18 1
Logan Allen 5 13 2
Max Muncy 5 13 7
Francisco Alvarez 5 7 2
Adrian Morejon 5 7 2
Shane McClanahan 4 27 2
Jack Perkins 4 23 2
Adrian Houser 4 12 2
Andrew Vaughn 4 12 3
Jordan Hicks 4 12 3
Colby Thomas 4 10 3
Jordan Wicks 4 8 2
Kyle Higashioka 4 3 1
Zebby Matthews 4 2 1

Position Player Playing Time Changes: July 9, 2025

John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Below are the latest significant rest-of-season projected playing time changes for hitters, headlined by the MLB debut of Colson Montgomery and the quick return of Corbin Carroll. So quick, in fact, that I didn’t even have to change the article photo from last week!

Remaining PT% Changes, 7/1 to 7/8
Name Team Positions Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
John Rave KCR RF, LF, CF 17% 51% 34% Path to playing time is clear with Waters in AAA
Colson Montgomery CHW SS 52% 76% 24% Welcome to MLB!
Corbin Carroll ARI RF, CF 69% 92% 23% Quicker-than-expected return from chip fracture
Yanquiel Fernández COL RF, DH 26% 47% 21% Welcome to MLB!
Zack Gelof ATH 2B 62% 80% 18% Finally back from the IL (hamate, ribs)
Joey Loperfido TOR RF, LF, DH, CF 1% 18% 17% Called up, should start against most/all righties
Austin Nola COL C 8% 24% 16% New backup C over Fulford
Paul DeJong WSN 3B, SS 26% 41% 15% Back from IL, starting against LHP
Andrew Vaughn MIL 1B, DH 6% 20% 14% Recalled to replace Hoskins
Luis Matos SFG LF, RF, CF 7% 21% 14% Back from AAA, playing often
Casey Schmitt SFG 2B, 3B, 1B, SS 42% 56% 14% Back from IL to be starting 2B
Miguel Rojas LAD 3B, 2B, SS, 1B 19% 33% 14% Will get a lot of 3B time with Muncy out
Ezequiel Duran TEX 3B, SS, 2B, LF, 1B, RF 22% 35% 13% Playing fairly often with Jung down
Matt Chapman SFG 3B 84% 96% 12% Quickly back from IL
Jake Burger TEX 1B, 3B, DH 67% 79% 12% Back from IL, maybe some 3B time too?
Jesse Winker NYM DH, LF 32% 43% 11% Nearing IL return
Anthony Seigler MIL 3B, 2B, C 15% 26% 11% Brought up as bench depth
Masataka Yoshida BOS DH, LF 40% 51% 11% Nearing IL return
Noelvi Marte CIN 3B 60% 70% 10% Back from IL, getting most 3B time
Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 TBR SS 72% 82% 10% Back from the IL, could get some maintenance days but is starting SS
Ty France MIN 1B, DH 82% 72% -10% Losing PT vsR to Clemens
Andrés Chaparro WSN DH,1B 17% 7% -10% Sent to AAA
Justin Foscue TEX 1B,DH 11% 1% -10% Sent to AAA
Pavin Smith ARI DH, 1B, LF, RF 59% 48% -11% Oblique strain
Jake McCarthy ARI RF, LF, CF 43% 32% -11% Carroll’s return cuts into playing time
Gary Sánchez BAL C, DH 41% 29% -12% Knee sprain
Luis Urías ATH 2B, 3B, SS 42% 30% -12% Hamstring strain
Lane Thomas CLE CF, RF 70% 58% -12% Plantar fasciitis
Ryan Noda CHW 1B, DH 46% 34% -12% Quad strain
Curtis Mead TBR 3B, 2B, 1B, DH 26% 13% -13% Optioned down for Kim
Rhys Hoskins MIL 1B, DH 82% 68% -14% Sprained thumb
Kerry Carpenter DET RF, LF, DH 69% 55% -14% Strained hammy
Jonatan Clase TOR LF, CF, RF 36% 22% -14% Sent to AAA
Christian Moore LAA 2B 78% 64% -14% Sprained thumb
Daniel Johnson SFG CF, LF, RF 28% 12% -16% Sent to AAA
Gabriel Arias CLE SS, 2B, 3B, 1B 65% 49% -16% Sprained ankle
Yordan Alvarez HOU DH, LF 64% 46% -18% Continued setbacks with hand
Tyler Fitzgerald SFG 2B, SS 54% 35% -19% Sent to AAA
Josh Jung TEX 3B 85% 64% -21% Optioned to AAA
Braxton Fulford COL C 32% 11% -21% Replaced by Nola as backup C
Max Muncy LAD 3B, 1B 78% 40% -38% Knee bone bruise
Drew Waters KCR CF, RF, LF 63% 19% -44% Sent to AAA

Roto Riteup: July 9, 2025

Still one of my favorite plays in sports:


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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 9th, 2025

Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Read the rest of this entry »