Starting Pitcher Chart – September 18th, 2025
The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
Board tonight, comments in the morning! (Yes, I’m going back to the well on Tong even after the nightmare v. TEX)
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| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | DET v CLE | x | x | x | 183 | 2.26 | 0.86 | 28% | 28th |
| 2 | Max Fried | NYY at BAL | x | x | x | 181 | 3.03 | 1.13 | 16% | 20th |
| 3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD v SFG | x | x | x | 162 | 2.66 | 0.98 | 21% | 13th |
| 4 | Logan Webb | SFG at LAD | x | x | x | 188 | 3.34 | 1.26 | 21% | 5th |
| 5 | Hunter Greene | CIN v CHC | x | x | x | 92 | 3.01 | 0.99 | 25% | 9th |
| 6 | Quinn Priester | MIL v LAA | x | x | x | 146 | 3.25 | 1.23 | 12% | 25th |
| 7 | Chris Bassitt | TOR at TBR | x | x | x | 166 | 3.90 | 1.30 | 16% | 11th |
| 8 | Jonah Tong | NYM v SDP | x | x | x | 11 | 8.49 | 1.71 | 11% | 16th |
| 9 | Tanner Bibee | CLE at DET | x | x | 170 | 4.44 | 1.24 | 14% | 17th | |
| 10 | Luis Castillo | SEA v KCR | x | x | 167 | 3.76 | 1.25 | 15% | 24th | |
| 11 | Brayan Bello | BOS v ATH | x | x | 157 | 3.25 | 1.22 | 10% | 7th | |
| 12 | Colin Rea | CHC at CIN | W | W | 146 | 4.23 | 1.31 | 11% | 15th | |
| 13 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA at MIL | x | 167 | 4.08 | 1.46 | 13% | 7th | ||
| 14 | Stephen Kolek | KCR v SEA | x | 99 | 3.71 | 1.20 | 10% | 12th | ||
| 15 | J.T. Ginn | ATH at BOS | x | 80 | 4.69 | 1.34 | 19% | 10th | ||
| 16 | Cade Povich | BAL v NYY | x | 101 | 5.05 | 1.45 | 16% | 2nd | ||
| 17 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA at COL | 161 | 5.53 | 1.29 | 11% | 27th | |||
| 18 | Shane Baz | TBR v TOR | 157 | 5.15 | 1.37 | 16% | 4th | |||
| 19 | Randy Vásquez | SDP at NYM | 123 | 3.72 | 1.35 | 4% | 3rd | |||
| 20 | Tanner Gordon | COL v MIA | 66 | 6.14 | 1.50 | 13% | 14th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
KEY x: Standard Recommendation | W: Chasing the Win
Love you Paul, but Tong at #8 is insane.
LOL that’s fair. It’s funny bc ppl were overrating the hell out of him after ONE start back in early-Sept., but now after the dud v. TEX, he’s radioactive. I certainly won’t pretend it’s a CONFIDENT start for him, but I really do believe in the top tier talent so I’d consider running him in any format. Maybe he deserves 2-x with 10s being more of a Hail Mary
Sorry Paul, I will never doubt you again.
Are you guaranteeing a Rea W? LOL/ you’re the best and this is hte most important article i read
Now you know darn well I can’t guarantee it, but I’m willing to chase the W and take some lighter ratios as a trade-off
Cubs clinched postseason yesterday. Probably will have a lot of regulars on the bench. I agree with your placement of Greene, regardless.
Ooh good point. We didn’t get a normal clinching roster from Philly bc they wanted to get a real look at Shohei, but I can see the Cubs going w/very few regulars today
Hard to have too many regulars on the bench given 28 man September rosters vs 40 man in the past
Hey Paul, i know sandy has burned a lot of folks (me especially) this year, but second half has been mostly good. i think he’s turned it around for the most part, but i know Coors is a risk.
My thinking there was avoid a potential Coors bomb, but I agree he’s startable in some spots. People chasing probably have to take the shot and hope to at least get a Win even if it’s more of a 6 IP/5 ER type outing
was scary after first inning but proud i stuck to my guns:)
Nice call on Tong I liked him climbing the ladder with the fastball and being so confident in it to throw it so much after being so change up happy last start.
Where are you today? Some of us like to get your opinions on our SPs before we start them. It’s 7:39 and too late for full roster adjustments. It’s not cool to post three day weekend choices after the first day has already begun. You owe Fangraphs better, man.
I really appreciate your work with these charts, Paul. Your input has undoubtedly helped me manage my SP choices more effectively, and checking for your new chart each day is step one in my daily fantasy routine. I know it must be constant and very time consuming to verify matchups and provide reasoned takes on the full slate of starters every day–thank you for all that you do!
I’m sorry, however, that your good work has created an expectation in some quarters. I’ve never felt that you owe this to us. Nor have you ever, as far as I’ve seen, promised to do this every day, much less each weekend (granted, this is a big fantasy playoff weekend, but still). I hope you take this as a sign that what you produce is really valuable. But I suppose the trap of being good at something is that people so often come to take that prowess for granted. In my mind, you doing this has always been going above and beyond, and all I am is grateful that you take the time to do it so often. (And I’ll still take your recs on today and tomorrow if you care/are able to publish them 😉 .) Hope you’re well, and thanks again for going above and beyond.
I mean…it is a daily/weekday article. I think it’s somewhat fair to assume it will come daily (especially at a really important part of the season).
That said, it’s not like we’re exactly (like 1:1) paying for this, so it’s totally unfair to be a jerkwad about it.
OTOH, the fact that roto riteup and some of the other “consistent” content is also unreliable does hurt the RG/FG brand…and might make a lot of people search elsewhere next season for reliable content. That’s worth pointing out IMO
Hope you’re ok!
Sorry for no Friday board, doing a Sat-Sun right now