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Mining the News (7/23/20)

Mining the News in its latest form may be on hiatus for a bit, but don’t fear. The Dark Overlord and I are working on a streamlined option to get everyone the information as quick as possible. The deal is that we can’t implement the change during the busiest week of the year. I’m going to continue to crank out as much content as possible like changes in velocity, pitch mix, and lineups.

Also, deeply insightful news is being hard to come by with reporters not getting 1-on-1 access (only group zoom meetings) and having to fill their required three articles with player movements and game threads. I needed to comb through dozens of articles to find anything useful. I wish there was more to report.

American League

Angels

Matt Andriese has added a cutter and two-seamer.

Right-hander Matt Andriese is slated to be the Angels’ fifth starter and has worked to add a cutter and a two-seam fastball to his pitch mix after mostly serving as a reliever over the last two seasons.

Athletics

Frankie Montas has added velocity.

But perhaps more noticeable than Montas’ body change has been the ease with which he can throw triple-digits. When he began working with Bay, he was in the 95-96 mph range; over the last few weeks, he’s been hitting 101-102 mph, regularly.

Sean Manaea lost his fastball velocity.

Manaea’s fastball, though, didn’t create much of a stir, either. The A’s left-hander never topped 90 mph on any of his 65 pitches in his final outing before his scheduled regular-season debut on Saturday.

Manaea’s fastest pitch in Monday’s exhibition game was 88.3 mph — and Austin Slater promptly crushed that delivery into the left-field corner for a three-run double, the key blow in a 6-2 Giants victory.

Blue Jays

So…

When will we see Nate Pearson?
— @mapleleaf_queen

The best version of this Blue Jays roster would include Pearson from day one, period. A likelier outcome is another young starter taking that No. 5 spot in the rotation for one outing and Pearson taking over for the second trip through.

Royals

Ryan McBroom will be the Royals full-time first baseman.

Ryan McBroom, like he did in Spring Training, looks ready to be a force in the lineup. And he’ll likely be the guy as Ryan O’Hearn remains in isolation. I joked with McBroom on Thursday about being the starter right now, and he wasn’t having any of it: “Too soon; you just never know.”

I like McBroom as a sleeper since he made the age expanded Voit-Muncy list (McBroom is mentioned down in the comments) of older AAA batters who hit the ball in the air hard with good plate discipline.

National League

Braves

Austin Riley has been working on his plate discipline.

“I felt like later in the season I was more focused on trying not to swing at that slider, so I wasn’t catching up to the fastball. I think the biggest thing is staying on that fastball and being able to recognize that slider. I think this swing I’ve made is going to allow me to do that.”

“The mechanics of my swing are a lot cleaner and a lot more consistent,” Riley said. “Not having to worry about that, I can focus on what the pitchers are trying to do to me.”

Brewers

• The backend of the rotation is still undecided.

The outcome will have a domino effect. Last week, the Brewers’ pitchers were lined up like this: Brandon Woodruff, who has been named the Opening Day starter, followed by Anderson and Corbin Burnes the next day. Then comes Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 and Freddy Peralta the day after that, and finally, Adrian Houser. Manager Craig Counsell named only Woodruff and Anderson to start Games 1 and 2, but one can see a rotation taking shape of Woodruff, Anderson, Lindblom and Houser. Burnes or Peralta could piggyback, or one could fill the fifth starter’s spot with the other beginning the regular season in the bullpen. Counsell has left some room for creativity.

Cardinals

Tommy Edman’s playing time and lineup position were up-in-the-air during the offseason, but now he’s batting second and playing third base.

With less than a week before Opening Day against the Pirates at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals fielded a potential starting lineup during Friday’s intrasquad — Kolten Wong at leadoff, Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong stacked at Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. And Carpenter at fifth as the designated hitter. With Carpenter moving to fifth instead of the typical No. 2 and to DH instead of the typical third base, Tommy Edman batted second and played third, giving the Cardinals speed at the top and bottom of the order. That lineup, Cardinals Red, won 2-1 on Carpenter’s two-run homer in the bottom of the second.

Matt Carpenter has been working on improving his swing.

Carpenter spent most of last season searching for his swing and working over the offseason on finding his hitting identity. He wants to hit to all parts of the field like he did early in his career. The work that he did showed some in Spring Training but has become clear in Summer Camp, encouraging the Cardinals as they move him around the lineup. It’s why the lineout to left field was more eye-opening than the homer to the home bullpen — although the quick surge of offense is always a positive.

Cubs

Victor Caratini will be  playing more.

With the addition of the designated hitter, there was already potential for catcher Victor Caratini to see more playing time than a traditional backup. In light of Rizzo’s uncertain status, Caratini could also see an increase in action as Chicago’s temporary first baseman.

He’s a must-own catcher if he’s playing in 60% of the Cubs games.

Kyle Hendricks has been working on his curveball this offseason.

“My curveball, I’ve been working on a ton,” Hendricks said in a recent Zoom chat with reporters. “I worked on it even more during this quarantine. It gave me a lot of time to do that, to kind of mess around a little bit with pressure, just how to spin it, learning how to spin it better.

“Right now, it’s the best my curveball’s felt.”

https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1285246983733678081

Dodgers

• Here are some early comments behind the reasons for Gavin Lux’s demotion.

Despite giving Gavin Lux the starting second base job last September, Roberts hasn’t given it to him this year. Lux, who reported to Summer Camp late, hasn’t made much contact at the plate since in limited action. Roberts started Enrique Hernández at second base on Sunday and Chris Taylor on Monday, saying the position is “open and going to be shared.” Lux is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 1 prospect in the organization and the No. 2 prospect in the game.

“There’s a lot of things with Gavin’s swing,” Roberts said. “Need to get him more at-bats, live and simulated. [We were] getting there with his last at-bat last night, albeit a strikeout. Honestly, at second base, we have a lot of good options. Workload, matchups will certainly matter.

Walker Buehler and Dustin May may piggyback a start next week.

With a day off on Monday, Roberts has indicated Walker Buehler and Dustin May might piggyback Tuesday night in Houston.

Giants

Jeff Samardzija is not averaging over 90 mph with his fastball.

Veteran right-hander Jeff Samardzija didn’t look especially sharp in his start on Friday night, giving up two runs over three innings. He did not strike out a single batter and appeared to top out at 89.6 mph, but Kapler said he isn’t worried about Samardzija’s readiness for the regular season.

Last season, his fastball averaged 92 mph so a 2 mph drop would hurt his production but not as much as other pitchers.

Phillies

Vince Velasquez has reworked his pitch mix by adding a cutter and splitter.

He is still throwing his four-seam fastball and curveball, but everything else has changed. He is throwing a cutter and changeup — two pitches he did not throw in 2019. He is not throwing a slider, his second-most popular pitch last year, although he said he has not ditched it. Velasquez’s revamped four-pitch mix and renewed confidence has him pitching well in Summer Camp and looking like a smart bet to start for the Phillies in this weekend’s season-opening series against the Marlins at Citizens Bank Park, though Velasquez said Monday night that nobody has told him anything.

Pirates

• With Keone Kela out has the Pirates closer, the team has several options to take over.

Crick’s stuff is there, as is the makeup. And given that the only other conceivable choices to close would be Richard Rodriguez, who struggled early last season with what he himself called a lack of confidence, or Nick Burdi, who’s throwing flames but has 13 big-league appearances to his name, it’s safe to assume Crick would be next in line.

Reds

Nick Castellanos has a lingering injury from a hit-by-pitch.

Right fielder Nick Castellanos was out again from Sunday’s scrimmage after he suffered a bruise on his upper back when hit by a Tyler Mahle pitch on Friday.

“It’s definitely day to day, but it’s just a bad spot that he got hit in,” Bell said “He’s having trouble getting it loose. It hit him right on the neck and spine area. We’re being cautious because of the area it’s in, but it’s just a bruise and a matter of getting that swelling and soreness out of there.”


Mining the Box Scores

Read first before freaking out

I started digging into pitch velocities and documented everyone who has changed. Two trends immediately appeared. The overall velocities were down and a few pitchers experienced major drops.

Normally in Spring Training, teams build a pitcher up to their maximum velocity and then start increasing the innings. At this point, all starters should have been ramped up to a full workload with their next start being in the regular season. Many don’t seem ready.

First off, I’m a little suspect of the velocity reading. Back in 2017, MLB installed new pitch-tracking systems and the velocities were high. A new system has been installed (Hawkeye) so something will likely be off. It is the MLB who can’t find a home for a team and decides to expand the playoffs with the season starting … that day. MLB going to MLB.

A second possible cause could the unique ramp up to the 2020 season. Teams have implemented different approaches to keeping their pitchers ready. Some of the velocities are down 5 mph from two separate parks. Maybe the pitchers are still worn down from the long postseason and four-month quarantine. Of the cameras are off. Or both.

Fastball velocities are down for a reason, but the cause(s) remains unknown. Fantasy owners need to remain calm and hopefully, in a few days, the truth will be known.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 834 – Baseball is Back!

07/23/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Finding the Outliers

I’m going to do a standard Bold Predictions later (maybe even on Friday since I don’t think two games on Thursday will invalidate anything), but first I wanted to pick some super outliers. Projections keep us level with our expectations, but our recently added 60-game leaderboard shows us that some wild stuff can go down in a two-month run.

I focused on the skill-based fantasy categories so I’m not doing anything with wins, saves, runs, or runs batted in. There will be some crazy results with those four categories, but role and team context are so important for those that options would be too limited. For the pitching ratios, I’ll be picking starting pitchers.

25+ HR GUY | Franmil Reyes, CLE

He ripped off a 21-homer run in a 60-game stretch last year that saw him hit .273/.316/.598 in 225 PA. That’s undoubtedly a great run, but I don’t think it’s the best he can do. I feel like Reyes’ best would include an OPS north of 1.000 for sure. He almost certainly won’t play all 60 games so he’ll need to push a 1.000+ OPS to smash 25+ homers in 50-55 games.

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Weekly Starter Rankings: Opening Weekend

For the 60-game season, I’m going to rank the starters each week by their probable matchup(s). This will be different than my standard longer-term rankings as it will be hyper-focused on the week ahead. As such a solid two-start arm (of which there are none this time around since I’m focusing solely on the upcoming Thursday-Sunday run) with good matchups will slot above a superstar ace in a one-start week, though you’ll likely not be pressed to choose between the two. The decisions will likely wind up on the fringes when you’re deciding between your last starter and another reliever. Talent will still matter, but matchups can create some separation in the short term.

Here’s what I’ve got based on the probable SP lists and notes I’ve gone over thus far. Let me know if someone I have listed is for sure not starting this weekend.

The notes will always be sporadic throughout the chart as I won’t always have something to say about every single arm.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 833 – Paul & Justin Main Events

07/21/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Roto Riteup: July 21, 2020

Found my dream job:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 832 – SP Ranking Review

07/20/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2020 STARTING PITCHER RANKING REVIEW

  • Reviewing my latest SP Rankings (here)

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Who is Being Dropped and Why (Preseason)

With the first major FAAB period running last night, it’s time to find some why owners soured on some players. Cole Hamels and Buster Posey are obvious choices but some of the others are just head-scratchers. It’s time to dive into who is headed to the waiver wire and why.

Normally, I use the NFBC Main Event, but it still needs to draft most of its leagues. With the Main Event drafts still happening, the maximum number of players dropped was four. For this week, I’m going to focus on the NFBC Online Championship. These drafts started around July 1st and should not be filled with many obvious drops as there would be for the March TGFBI drafts. Next week I’ll be back using the Main Event.
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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello everyone. The focus of this chat is to discuss FAAB and Waiver Wire adds. I answer those first and then go back to answer any others.

7:32
Guest: Can you rank these bench bat OFs for an OC:  Santander (on roster), K Calhoun, Piscotty, or Kyle Lewis.

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: This one is pretty tough. I like Santander with the Red Sox the first week and the Marlins in week2

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: then I’d go Lewis (upside), Calhoun, Piscotty

7:34
Ryan: Houser or Sandy A

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Neither right now.

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