I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of the six more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6).

#596 Jaime Barria

Barria is a steady below-average MLB starter who should be streamed in half his starts. Here is what  is known about him.

• His 7.5 K/9 wasn’t ideal, it was at least paired with a 2.5 BB/9.
• His fastball velocity increased just a bit (91.7 mph to 92.1 mph).
• He’s flyball prone (34% GB%) so he could give up a decent number of home runs (1.6 HR/9 on his career).
• He’s got an average four-seamer (8% SwStr%) and slider (14% SwStt) and an ineffective sinker (3% SwStr%) and changeup (9% SwStr%). He needs to ditch or improve the last two (22% usage).

The same upside exists with him with just about every other pitcher. Throw harder. Improve or add a pitch. Ideal pitch mix. Until he shows an improvement, just stream him against weaker opponents.
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The premiere episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Eno Sarris of The Athletic

Strategy Section

• Roster construction in roto snake drafts
  • What matters more at each pick – 
    • Value or category balance?
    • Stability or upside?
• KDS – Kentucky Derby Style Preferences 
• The Case for An Ace
• Relievers
  • Should you be drafting middle relievers in 2021?
  • Should we still be drafting closers early on?

ATC Projections

Command+

Mailbag – The team answers Twitter comments and questions.

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

Follow us on Twitter

• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Eno Sarris (@enosarris)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

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12/17/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Anthony DeSclafani to SF (1:55)
• Rafael Montero to SEA (7:02)
• Mike Zunino back to TB (11:44)

Read the rest of this entry »

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American League

Athletics

• A.J. Puk is expected to be part of the rotation.

A.J. Puk is progressing well from surgery. Forst counts him among the A’s starting rotation members along with Montas, Luzardo, Bassitt and Manaea.

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) December 9, 2020

The A’s are going to need to get their rotation 10 deep with that injury-prone group. And those replacements could get hurt and/or underperform so 10 might not be enough.
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Many thanks to Derek Carty of RotoGrinders for his assistance on this article, and for his player notes on a few 2020 player projections.

In my previous article, 2020 Projection Systems Comparison – A Game Theory Approach, I compared several excellent projection systems in terms of fantasy baseball profitability for 2020. It was not the typical statistical comparison, rather – I used a game theory approach. This was the third such annual article that I had put forth in evaluating projection systems.

Earlier this year, Derek Carty unveiled a new version of his already excellent THE BAT projection system. The new system is called, THE BAT X. The major innovation of THE BAT X is that it incorporates Statcast data into the fold. You can read more about THE BAT X works in Carty’s introductory article found here on the pages of FanGraphs.

I have typically evaluated THE BAT within my 2020 Projections comparison. With this season (despite the short duration) as the inaugural run of THE BAT X – Derek asked me to take a deeper look into how his new projection system had performed. To do this, I went back and revisited the same game theory methodology applied to THE BAT X. The initial results look very promising for the young system.

In this article, I will go through what had changed between THE BAT and THE BAT X as far as the game theory simulations. For a few of the largest and most impactful player performance differences, I will also include some analysis from Derek Carty himself as to why THE BAT X made those adjustments. Read the rest of this entry »

12/15/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• James McCann to NYM (4:44)
• David Dahl to TEX (14:58)
  • The TEX lineup as a whole
• Nate Lowe traded to TEX (24:24)

Read the rest of this entry »

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With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »

Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. This will be a running series this winter, check it out the other installments below.

• Part 1

Joey Gallo | TEX – OF – 77 wRC+

Gallo has been a fantasy darling for a while now spurred by back-to-back 40 HR seasons in 2017-18. The catch was a combined .208 AVG in those seasons so you had to plan around that deficiency if you wanted the power. Then in 2019 his BABIP soared to a career best .368, fueling a .253 AVG in the process, though it was just 70 games as injuries limited him. What I think was lost on many was that a .500 BABIP against lefties really drove the gains for Gallo.

In other words, it was fraudulent.

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Stability is important in fantasy baseball, especially when it involves early-round picks. When we talk stability it can mean two things. It can mean stability of health or stability of skill set. With your early-round picks you of course want players with very few holes in their skills and players who stay on the field. I now present you with someone who teeters on a tight rope with both health and skill set: Dinelson Lamet.

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