I am one day in and already spending my winnings from this fantasy baseball season:
I’m 14th in the Main Event overall… is there a cash out option? pic.twitter.com/nQQsqZOVfr
— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) April 2, 2021
On the Agenda:
1. COVID Issues
2. Closer Chaos
3. Quick Hits
4. Various News and Notes
5. Streaming Pitchers
The Bold Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Scott Pianowski
Strategy Section
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4/1/21
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
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Hopefully you enjoyed my earlier bold predictions piece earlier today. This one will be a tad bit bolder.
Opening day is upon us!
Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count for the 2021 season standings.
After a 60-game short season in 2020, baseball looks to drive us just a bit closer towards normalcy. Yes, there will still be abundant COVID protocols in effect, and yes – fan attendance will be restricted. But for most of us, the sun feels just a bit brighter today.
A large number of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were shifted to virtual venues. Aside from a larger online presence, the vast majority of fantasy baseball players had a somewhat normal draft season. Remember last year, when we essentially had two distinct baseball draft seasons (in February/March as well as in June/July)? Hopefully the 2021 season will proceed without major interruptions.
It is now time to share my 2021 bold predictions with you. One of the first fantasy baseball articles that I had ever written was the 2018 edition. I am proud to be back for the 4th straight year, sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.
As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. Some predictions stem from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.
As always – please remember: These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Raimel Tapia will not lead the majors in homers, and I won’t predict that. Khris Davis will not contend for a batting title, and I won’t consider that. Those are not bold predictions – those are impossible ones.
My definition of a bold prediction is one that lies roughly in the 70th to 90th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on some 10-30% of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish than 10% would be miraculous, while any more probable than 30% would be too easy a guess.
It has been a few years since I did a bold predictions piece here on Rotographs. It is typically a fun piece to do and people like them, but I have found that I am so focused on drafts and other content at this time of year, that I just run out of time. Forgive me if I am not as bold as I should be as it has been a while since I have done one of these, but I hope you enjoy them!
Pitching can be the spot of our lineups where we experience the lowest degree of variance in a sport full of volatility. We’re not going to explore how to minimize variance, but how to make the best plays tailored for our lineups to fit the contests we’re playing using projections and leverage.
A lot of things factor into a pitcher scoring fantasy points via strikeouts, innings, and run prevention. A pitcher’s skill is pretty important, but what’s the best way to gauge a pitcher’s skill? The answer is mostly through the predictive analytics of their past performance, which ought to be distinguished from the descriptive analytics.
Projection
We get fantasy points for outs, Ks, and Ws (on FD, we also get the points for the QS); it’s that simple. We lose points for ER on both sites, baserunners on DK. Keep it simple. Find a predictive run prevention metric between xERA, FIP, xFIP, or SIERA. Decide between the per-nine rates or per-100 batter-faced stats like K/9 versus K%. I prefer xERA, based on the Statcast numbers, or SIERA, as they isolate that over which the pitcher has the most control. I prefer K/9 because K% can double-count for events already recognized in the run preventers, as we’re really just looking to project Ks with that metric.
It’s Bold Prediction season! The goal here isn’t to nail 100% of these, they just don’t have a high enough probability to expect such a success rate, but rather to come up with predictions that could happen to highlight some potential breakouts and statistical surges. I know some people do downside bold predictions, but I’m especially bad at those. Let me know your Bold Predictions in the comments. Again, make sure they are actually bold – something a player has never done or a fall off that no one is seeing coming, except you.
Opening Day is so close now!
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Goes .300-35-100
He only has three small samples in his three MLB seasons (263, 343, and 224 PA), but he has improved his wRC+ each year – 103, 124, and 135 – and I see him poised for a full season breakout. Maybe this isn’t bold enough given that he has averaged .287-33-93 per 650 PA. He still needs to overperform that mark and put up over 600 PA so I think it still qualifies as bold, especially since his high in games played is 84.
3/30/21
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS
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